- Saying it"s J or better, or nothing vs not hitting his range that hard = same thing. But yes, that"s basically what I"m getting at.
True but I'm pedant.
Say Mark raises a tight range of..
AA-99,AKo-ATo,KQo,AKs-ATs,KQs-KJs,QJs
He has Ace hi more than 40% of time on that flop. The problem though is with the Jack hi flop, the J is probably the ideal over/under card for his range.
Take out KJs and QJs and his misses increase from 40 to 45%, include all broadway cards and he only misses 27%
All that said, my thoughts at the time agreed with your assessment that Mark's range missed that flop a decent amount. So check raising was not a viable option.
- Not discouraging at check-raise here at all, quite the opposite (What do you think I am, a nit?! ). What I"m saying is that IF you (or the other blind) have totally missed, the only way Hero wins any more chips after being checked to is if either of you check-raise bluff.
It's a very dry board and your ip with a really strong hand versus what you perceive as an aggro player. Is checking back an option?
Lets villain catch something of value, weakens your range. We never really know for sure how villains will react ( feels weird calling myself villan
) so it may be a moot point but check raise bluffs are rare enough occurrences. You dont lose any value either since its most likely you will only get 2 streets of value from this spot. As a nice bonus checking back these spots can help keep your cbets at an unexploitable frequency.
If the c-bet is bigger, the CR is bigger => bigger pot for the Hero. Hell, a bigger c-bet may even encourage a check-raise, as the reward is bigger.
Betting bigger to induce! Seems counterintuitive to me, has it been successful for you? My experience is that smaller bets are more likely to be perceived as weak and hence more likely to induce a raise.