I don"t post in the academy often, so would be interested to know why checking here is a disaster... in my experience a flop like that is hitting a typical limp / callers range? Suited connectors, low pocket pair set mining etc?
Versus a limping range of ..
TT-22,AJo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo,JTo,AJs-A2s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s, that's a total of 210 combo's
economically weighted towards suited hands and doesn't account for unsuited connectors.
We are in bad shape versus...
44,66,77 sets 9 combo's
76 two pair 3 combo's
6% of that limping range.
We get value from...
88,99,TT overpair 18 combo's
A7,87 Top pair 6 combo's
A6,56 Mid Pair 6 combo's
22,33,55,45,A4 Weak pair 24 combo's
Various hh holdings flushdraw 17 combo's
A5,98, oesd 8 combo's
38% of that limping range.
So we should bet for value and rely on our reads to make a decision if we are raised. I suspect bet / folding is likely to lose less than check / calling.
Betting the flop for 1700 - 1900 targets the weaker end of their range whereas a closer to potsize bet is more likely to fold out those weaker hands.