JJ in UKIPT satellite

[pokerpops]

DTD UKIPT Satellite, 8 left 2 seats to play for

wilson077 ($19,932)
david ($43,780)
GoKartMark ($20,312)
tomhot ($5,925)
bluecheek ($10,992)
MKFricke ($5,350)
smokingjac ($9,199)
XXWINXX ($10,985)

MKFricke antes $25
smokingjac antes $25
XXWINXX antes $25
wilson077 antes $25
david antes $25
GoKartMark antes $25
tomhot antes $25
bluecheek antes $25
wilson077 posts (SB) $150
david posts (BB) $300

Dealt to david    
fold, fold, fold, fold,
smokingjac raises to $775
fold, fold,
david raises to $2,450
smokingjac calls $1,675
FLOP ($5,250)      
david checks
smokingjac bets $6,724 (AI)

Thoughts on pre and what to do now as played?

[mporter123]

Any reads on Villain?

I tend to make it smaller pre - like 1850 ish based on his stack size.

As played, I think its a pretty easy fold. You crush some pocket pairs that he may do this with but too many combinations of Kx, flush draws, etc to call.

[noble1]

not folding with your stack size David, i don"t know the buy in but unless villain has played AA KK AK maybe even QQ in a non std way pre and post then your check could get him to spazz wide enough to merit a call here..

[Erimus]

I think once he raises he is always calling, so a smaller 3 bet, prob rule out AK as he probably gets it all in pre (he has only 20 bigs left) so may have a smaller pair or KQ, KJ, nut flush draw hands or any 2 suited diamonds in my world lately,again ruling out AA, KK, QQ as prob reraises all in poss set, that would be unlucky, it"s a 20 big blind shove so I would tend to err on the side of caution you still have 40kish left, he more than likely has the flush draw so depends do you want the flip, personally I would wait, at these blind levels I am still sleeping lol .

[pokerpops]

Edited op to confirm 8 left, 2 seats.

Not sure if, or how much, this changes views.

[AMRN]

Although you don"t have a seat locked up yet, you have a sizeable chip advantage, and I would be looking to protect that at this stage, and not play anything that might be marginal. In this hand, pre I"m flatting, and ready to fold to action if any overcards flop. Of course though, reads within the game can make a significant difference - has he raise/folded pre much? Has he been playing very tight or very loose? Does he understand Satellite tactics?

As played I think you have to wince and call.

[pokerpops]

Thanks - I called, on a similar basis to noble1"s view that he shoves a lot here that I am beating. Pretty sure he couldn"t have AK given that he flats my 3bet

I was wrong, he did have AK, I didn"t re-bink.

In hindsight I prefer AMRN"s version of the hand - flat and be prepared to get away from the hand.

three minutes later I confirmed the fact that Jacks need some caution. I had a moment of inattention to the game due to outside influences and had to hurriedly call with JJ on the button. A flop of QJ9 looked so good that I ignored the possibility that the SB had completed with 8 10.....

gg me

[mporter123]

Not 3betting here is a mistake IMO.

We can be cautious in some spots when we have a big stack in satellites but that is no reason to play our value hands passively. If we flat pre we leave ourselves open to easy bluffs when he cbets his whole range and there is an overcard on the board.

In this situation we have even more reason to 3bet based on opponents stack size. We can risk a small portion of our stack 3 betting and give him a decision for all his stack. I would prefer it if he had 25bb"s and we were on the button but I dont think a good player peels lots of 3 bets here with 30bb"s, even in position. We should be relentlessly attacking the medium sized stacks unless reads tell us not to. I would be three betting really wide here.

The time to be cautious is post flop, I would be happy to cbet half pot then give up/shut down when faced with any aggression on this flop. We definitely shouldn"t start flatting pre and not cbetting flops just because we have the big stack.

[deanp27]

Given situation might just jam pre. Obv wouldn"t do this in a normal tournament

[George2Loose]

It"s amazing how bad the villian played this hand and somehow finds conditions falling just right for him

[pokerpops]

It"s amazing how bad the villian played this hand and somehow finds conditions falling just right for him

Isn"t it though

Makes a change for me, I"m usually him in your analysis. Which I take far more note of than you could imagine.

What"s your take on the pre flop play George?

[BOINGBLITZ]

I agree with Steve"s take on the hand. I would"ve flatted with your stack and seen a flop. You held a massive chip-lead with 2 seats up for grabs and 8 left. The way you played it, if he 4-bet all-in you wouldn"t have felt confident or happy about making the call IMO.
 For what it"s worth, I wouldn"t have been able to put him on A-K either as with his stack I wouldv"e been 4-bet jamming pre-flop with that hand.
 As it panned out you got very UL as I think he possibly shoves whatever comes on the flop.

[WYoung83]

 3 bet is a little to large imo, with villians stack size i like 3 betting to 1700-2000, it gives the illusion of fold equity for him to 4 bet you. (which you should be calling in a normal final table but not to sure about sattelites lol)
on the flop i just c bet pretty standard, but the problem comes with your big 3 bet pre flop, the pot is now bigger so your c bet is bigger and it makes it more alkward to play because if he jams (and you end up deciding for whatever reason to make a fold) you loose more chips than you perhaps should of. As played its so tough because there is 5.2 k in pot and he only has 6.7 k behind.

Edit.

Just read the result, and he should of got it in vs you. If you 3 bet smaller though and he just peels, its easier for you to get away from K on the flop, because the stack to pot ratio is significantly smaller.
As played i think i wouldnt fold after the flop. But checking to let him shove is better than setting him in. If he has a flush draw it goes in either way, but if he has air and you check he will shove most likely, and if you set him in he will fold air which is not good.

Also dont agree with just flatting the open raise. Vs his stack you are happy to get it in. You have a big chip lead but you cant really fold your way to a seat with 8 left.

[noble1]

@ approx 34% total of the chips if David was to get like a turtle and just fold to say the last 4 with the blind sizes, obv the others will be chipped up, will this increase the chances of getting 1 of the 2 seats or decrease his chances [over a large sample say]
what is the best strategy? open raise every time its folded to u [even better if the shorties were to your right as now u would be able to put the pressure on the medium+ stacks, who are the nits? etc etc

HoldemResources.net Results

wowser...
click and experiment with these ranges, how many would push as wide as suggested?

the variance would be interesting see below for constant 50/50 variance coinflips, its no wonder that u can get bogged down with a few bad beats


if u took millions of coin flips your variance could look like this of course it will return to zero but only if you was specifically getting into coinflips

very good post on edge that gets the brain matter ticking over
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/36/stt-strategy/3-5k-post-edge-really-edge-743669/

"Sh-it Out of Luck."
Yes the ABCs and 123s were the first things you learned and forever relied on to forge ahead in your life quest.  But if you didn't bother to try and expand on that foundation, you would be stuck in kindergarten.  I think the same can be said for entry level poker players.  They get introduced to the game, learn their ABCs and 123s, have the strong desire and willingness to learn but are not willing to think outside the box for the fear of making mistakes or losing money.  If this is you let me tell you now that playing A.B.C will leave you S.O.L

For all the exposure that I've had over the years dealing with players at all buy-in levels, the one thing that seems to fade away as the stakes get higher is the notion of being card dead.  This is a favorite topic for the low to micro level players and just doesn't seem to exist at high stakes.  I believe this is because the talent level rises as the stakes get higher, and as the lower level player is waiting for opportunities the high stakes player is busy creating them.

Sitting around waiting for the cards to come is just a form of ABC poker and being timid to make moves and not tapping into your creative side will see a lifetime of mediocre/breakeven play which in the long run will just see you broke and S.O.L.

don"t be spewy BUT please do not get all turtle like  

[WYoung83]

Good post, and a great quote.