Cracking AA

[TheSnapper]

I can understand that point Rob. But

Do you think villains range for continuing, is different when we Jam versus when we 4bet to ~$22K

V good question ( I"d love you in my maths class )

short answer: yes

I just think the 4 bet gives the villain a chance to 5 bet bluff. It depends on what level you put the villain on, i,e. does he think that hero is only 4 betting because he keeps getting 3 bet?

Villain is in a tough spot when we 4b, essentially its fold or jam for him and imho he very seldom, possibly even never bluffs us here.

So, what hands are in his 5b jamming range that fold when we 4b jam?

[Swinebag]

I can understand that point Rob. But

Do you think villains range for continuing, is different when we Jam versus when we 4bet to ~$22K

V good question ( I"d love you in my maths class )

short answer: yes

I just think the 4 bet gives the villain a chance to 5 bet bluff. It depends on what level you put the villain on, i,e. does he think that hero is only 4 betting because he keeps getting 3 bet?

Villain is in a tough spot when we 4b, essentially its fold or jam for him and imho he very seldom, possibly even never bluffs us here.

So, what hands are in his 5b jamming range that fold when we 4b jam?

I think I see where you are going here.
Are you saying that, by 4 betting (being prepared to fold) and giving the impression that you aren"t folding (which putting a quarter of your stack in probably does) then the villain can only 5 bet the top end of his range?

I would say that, if the villain interprets the 4 bet as a cheap attempt to combat his 3 bets then he may jam his small pairs + AQ, AJ and (if he is a loon) possibly some suited connectors. However, I doubt Brian has 4 bet much, so if villain is decent he would probably let ithose hands go and just 3 bet him the next time and see what he does then.

[TheSnapper]

I think I see where you are going here.
Are you saying that, by 4 betting (being prepared to fold) and giving the impression that you aren"t folding (which putting a quarter of your stack in probably does) then the villain can only 5 bet the top end of his range?

Pretty much, if as I suspect villain only continues with something like QQ+,AKs,AKo irrespective of whether we jam or min 4b then we survive when we find the top of his range, without impacting on our bluff success rate.

I would say that, if the villain interprets the 4 bet as a cheap attempt to combat his 3 bets then he may jam his small pairs + AQ, AJ and (if he is a loon) possibly some suited connectors. However, I doubt Brian has 4 bet much, so if villain is decent he would probably let ithose hands go and just 3 bet him the next time and see what he does then.

Given stack size and the tough spot we put villain in, a 5b bluff is super unlikely. Not saying it won"t ever happen but its gonna likely be seldom enough to not be a significant factor.

[deanp27]

i think you are giving villains far too much credit, especially a $5 aggro-villain. In my experience the QQ, AK range is far too tight and i think they may 5bet bluff when they dont realise they are bluffing ie jam etc. But meh this depends on your type of aggro-donk. This is why is just prefer not to level myself against these guys and just jam it or fold

[Fatcatstu]

I like the fact that i am understanding what Brendan and Rob are saying for once, still to scared to read Nobles input though  :"(

Brian.

I raise, then i flat call, then i dont fold at any point, then i bink the river. Or i dont bink the river and i swear to never play online poker again as it is rigged.

[noble1]

I like the fact that i am understanding what Brendan and Rob are saying for once, still to scared to read Nobles input though .

lol  

Is villain Merged or Polarised? at villains stack depth and @ this buy in i"d favour Merged
A merged range contains only value hands [in villains mind] and and very few bluffs, these players will be less errr ahemmm competent than a polarised 3bettor, in a $5 mtt they view most of there hands as for value no matter what happens thus 4betting them will get very few folds, so we should only 4bet with our value hands, we have little to no fold equity with our 4bet bluffs against players like this..

Quote from: Swinebag22
I would say that, if the villain interprets the 4 bet as a cheap attempt to combat his 3 bets then he may jam his small pairs + AQ, AJ and (if he is a loon) possibly some suited connectors. However, I doubt Brian has 4 bet much, so if villain is decent he would probably let those hands go and just 3 bet him the next time and see what he does then.

as above - AQ AJ 88 etc in villains view/mind these are value hands, a player who only 3bets merged in their $5 mtt brain is only 3betting for value thus making 4bet bluffs pretty pointless...

fold to the 3bet we lose 2bb is ok, call for 3bb more with position with more equity against the whole of villains merged range is ok ev wise,
4bet bluffing or 4bet jamming will show the worst ev if u are going to judge solely on the maths...

[TheSnapper]

Quote from: Swinebag22
I would say that, if the villain interprets the 4 bet as a cheap attempt to combat his 3 bets then he may jam his small pairs + AQ, AJ and (if he is a loon) possibly some suited connectors. However, I doubt Brian has 4 bet much, so if villain is decent he would probably let those hands go and just 3 bet him the next time and see what he does then.

as above - AQ AJ 88 etc in villains view/mind these are value hands, a player who only 3bets merged in their $5 mtt brain is only 3betting for value thus making 4bet bluffs pretty pointless...

From this I glean that you have villain firmly in the "overrates hands and is 100% 3 betting for value so will never fold to 4 bet" category?

Provided as read in the OP we have..

Villain stats are 32/28

Now we don't know what the sample size is but even so, that villains vpip and pfr are so close suggests to me that we are dealing with a somewhat competent player.

Also,

3bet 18%, he has 3b a couple of times from the button

Suggests we are not dealing with a level 1 "my cards are pretty" type player. So, we can be exploited and continue to fold to his many 3 bets, or we can adjust our range and play back at him.

Worst case we induce some action when we 4b a monster..

fold to the 3bet we lose 2bb is ok, call for 3bb more with position with more equity against the whole of villains merged range is ok ev wise,
4bet bluffing or 4bet jamming will show the worst ev if u are going to judge solely on the maths...

Pretty sure albeit intuitively, that 4b is +EV in this spot. Would love you to fire some numbers at it though

[noble1]

bloody HUD lol , scrap the bloody thing
villain could be quite easily be getting hit hard by the deck... question for u Bren, can u recall ever playing a villain in a $5 mtt with a 18% 3bet stat over say 150 hands...  if say the sample is over 40 hands then villain has played 13 hands 7 of which would of been 3bets, are we saying that no one ever gets a good run of cards over 40 hands...
thats why i like to at least half the 3bet stat to at least get a approximation of what villains true 3bet% could/met be in cases where u dealing with such small sample sizes...

Pretty sure albeit intuitively, that 4b is +EV in this spot. Would love you to fire some numbers at it though

your intuition maybe a little off  

there are plenty other stats to consider with that bloody HUD check the fold to 4bet etc.. i wish someone would start a thread on how to get reads without using a HUD  is it becoming a lost art?

DeanP made a valid point also don"t u think?

[TheSnapper]

bloody HUD lol , scrap the bloody thing
villain could be quite easily be getting hit hard by the deck... question for u Bren, can u recall ever playing a villain in a $5 mtt with a 18% 3bet stat over say 150 hands...  if say the sample is over 40 hands then villain has played 13 hands 7 of which would of been 3bets, are we saying that no one ever gets a good run of cards over 40 hands...
thats why i like to at least half the 3bet stat to at least get a approximation of what villains true 3bet% could/met be in cases where u dealing with such small sample sizes...

Pretty sure albeit intuitively, that 4b is +EV in this spot. Would love you to fire some numbers at it though

your intuition maybe a little off  

there are plenty other stats to consider with that bloody HUD check the fold to 4bet etc.. i wish someone would start a thread on how to get reads without using a HUD  is it becoming a lost art?

DeanP made a valid point also don"t u think?

Of course, you make good points as does Dean. But both your points are largely predicated on categorizing the villain as a low level thinker. Yes sample size can be misleading especially for the 3b stat, but vpip and pfr become statistically significant very quickly.

If villain was 32/5 for example I"d certainly agree on your assessment but 32/28 vpip/pfr are a good indicator of an aggressive style, especially so when coupled with a high 3bet frequency.

It would take thousands of hands for villains fold to 4b stat to become anyway significant since we face a 4b so infrequently.

As for reads other than via Hud feedback, other than paying attention to villains play, we could check on OPR and see that villain has cashes of ~$55k and is certainly not your common-or-garden "$5 mtt brain"

[noble1]

ohhhhh u mean this guy - http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/members/257650/ - marge147

a vital bit of advice imho Bren, Hero should check opr beforehand....      as to villains 3bet oop with that sizing @ his eff stack size - 3rd time is the charm  

i still think u r interpreting the hud stats to literally Bren  the most vital stat for the HUD is the number of hands stat, without it we won't know whether or not we have a relevant sample size... the VPIP and PFR stats get close enough/converge enough to have a good idea of the approx true VPIP @ around the 30 to 50 hand area in cash games [thats my opinion btw]
but Mtts are in a whole different ballpark with stack sizes and table postion affecting it all... the extremes are easily spotted but defining player styles amongst the tags and lags is largely useless imo with small hand samples... positional stats along with any notes of hands seen would help... there can be a huge difference from a 3b range from the btn compared to the 3b sb range...

meh

[deanp27]

Yeah OPR"d him after and I"d probably just fold to the 3bet in all honesty or jam if we had some sort of history I could rely on.

In fact I think villain is playing the UKIPT next week on the same starting day as me, maybe I"ll ask him what his 3b/5b jamming range is lol.

[noble1]

[TheSnapper]

Would love you to fire some numbers at it though

Putting/risking 25% of our stack doesn"t seem optimal to me,

I"ll need to have a think about this post Mark but for now, my intuitive response/ focus is on this part specifically.

In a large field online mtt, is it possible to go really deep/ win if we adopt a strategy of only ever choosing the optimal move?

[noble1]

[MintTrav]

i think you are giving villains far too much credit, especially a $5 aggro-villain. In my experience the QQ, AK range is far too tight and i think they may 5bet bluff when they dont realise they are bluffing ie jam etc. But meh this depends on your type of aggro-donk. This is why is just prefer not to level myself against these guys and just jam it or fold

I see what you did there.