Yes, the JJ hand is a cooler. It"s pretty easy to eliminate AA, KK and QQ from his range as he should be raising with those hands pre. Given what his hand actually is I am assuming he has a wide range here being very generous to him you are about 55% against his range. I am assuming he makes this play with any Ace high flush draw and OESD, top pair, two pair, a set and a straight. I think in actual fact if he had a really big hand he might call or raise less so you are probably actually better than the 55% shown here.
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
112,860 games 0.004 secs 28,215,000 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.443% 54.91% 00.53% 61975 598.50 { JdJs }
Hand 1: 44.557% 44.03% 00.53% 49688 598.50 { TT-88, 55, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KsQs, KsJs, QsJs, JsTs, Ts9s, T7s, 98s, 85s, 76s, A9o, K9o, Q9o, J9o, T9o, T7o, 98o, 85o, 76o }
**--------------------------------------------------------------
The AdQd hand is tougher. The shortstacks shove should be really wide (although it depends how he got to less than 3BB did he blind down or did he lose an allin as if he blinded down his range is stronger but to be honest it does not matter much). The flat caller leaving just 3500 behind is a strange play as he should be calling any reraise, he hand should be pretty strong but often isn"t. The Hijacks call is probably a pretty wide range but not that strong of a hand as if he had a hand like QQ+ or AK then he should be putting the caller allin.
Let"s try and put them on Ranges
UTG +2 = Any ace, Any Pair and any two broadway
MP Caller = 88+ and Broadway with an Ace
Cut off = Some not premium hand he can call with
So I predict if we shove the MP caller is going to call and the cut off is going to fold, this happens most of the time. I can"t see that the cut off is going to be trapping often here. So we end up creating the following
Main pot = 5400
Side Pot = 7000
We need to put 4800 in the pot (in addition to the SB which was in anyway) and we don"t have to worry about being OOP.
Our chance of winning the mainpot is about 35%
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 23.732% 22.20% 01.53% 637564173 43945573.67 { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 1: 40.692% 37.72% 02.97% 1083346408 85221292.17 { 88+, ATs+, ATo+ }
Hand 2: 35.576% 31.89% 03.69% 915723396 105928787.17 { AdQd }
We are also 50/50 for the side pot
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
138,696,624 games 0.001 secs 138,696,624,000 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.112% 43.91% 06.20% 60903120 8601169.50 { 88+, ATs+, ATo+ }
Hand 1: 49.888% 43.69% 06.20% 60591165 8601169.50 { AdQd }
The ranges I have assigned here are pretty tight and the situation could quite easily be better for you.
So from a cEV point of view
We invest 4800 chips and win a pot of 12400 so make a profit of 7600 35% of the time
We invest 4800 chips and win a pot of 7000 so make a profit of 2200 32% of the time
We lose 4800 chips 33% of the time
So on average if our reads are right we win 1780 chips per hand if we shove (this assume a fold from the cut off). So its basically got to be a shove unless something about one of the players makes you think otherwise and it would need to be a soul read. What would help is having the VP$IP and PFR of the players if you have them although in either of these cases it is unlikely to change what you should do.
Sorry if this post goes on a bit. I am not that great at explaining this sort of situation fully, just try to get across why you do what you do.
