Author Topic: Improving  (Read 9798 times)

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TheSnapper

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Re: Improving
« Reply #15 on: April 25, 2012, 00:20:50 AM »

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Also, about studying. Winning chances, and the mathematics are something I wish to understand fuly (im not too shabby at mental arithmetic). What would be some recommended reading?


understanding ranges -
http://www.bluffmagazine.com/magazine/"G-Bucks"-Conceptualizing-Money-Matters.-Phil-Galfond-985.htm
http://www.bluffmagazine.com/magazine/Wait,-Weight-Phil-Galfond-932.htm
http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/mathematics/g-bucks/

counting combo"s etc etc is a form of Bayes Theorem like Galfond points out, against predictable players its great :) but against very good players who mix up their play since they are smart and logical, you simply have to use a opponent model that includes the concept of mixing it up...  they will make plays based on implied odds and bluffing and deception, but they generally won"t make purely bad plays, so guesstimation as i call it is required :)
the concept of guesstimation is also needed for BAD players :) because generally the worse the opponent, the less precision you will have in your estimation, because there play is very erratic :) so when you are thinking about their play, you have to think that they just may be making a huge mistake pre or post, and allow for that in your guesstimations :)

a bit of maths -
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poker_probability_(Texas_hold_%27em)


going back to the subject/concept of ranges for differing styles/skill levels of opponents -
you need to use a model in your head that"s specific to each inidividual - are they loose, aggressive, do they mix it up, are they just a bad player that plays every hand, etc. :)
for any estimation, you need to think about the situation yourself and your opponent/s maybe in, post flop try to take the ranges idea to the point where you can imagine how a opponent will react with there range based on what your action might be, or how do they view your range when they bet and see you call etc etc...  try to guesstimate what your opponent will have in the future if you make a certain action and how his range will respond... 
nothing new in the above, thats basically poker boiled down....

and on improving in general here is a Galfond quote to think about -
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Think about the value of plays that you often don't consider.  Think about different ways a hand can play out, and what you have to gain or lose by taking an alternate line.



Fair play Mark, keeping it simple ;D
"Being wrong is erroneously associated with failure, when, in fact, to be proven wrong should be celebrated, for it elevates someone to a new level of understanding."

AAroddersAA

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Re: Improving
« Reply #16 on: April 25, 2012, 22:04:16 PM »
The Mathematics of poker is pretty easy really, more so when you have all the tools to help you these days. We are all sort of shooting in the dark here though, the best way to understand all this is to look at real hands and comment on them and read other peoples comments.

I would say that looking back through your own hands is the best way to go and when you see an interesting one post it, even if you think you played it right, you may get an interesting new way of looking at things, at the very least you will see how other people may look at similar situations. Make notes on opponents as you review the hands (include flop texture in these, is it flushing pr rainbow, wet or dry). Look at bet sizing when reviewing sessions as there are a lot of tells in this.


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Still trying to think of something amusing to write in this bit.

noble1

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Re: Improving
« Reply #17 on: April 26, 2012, 23:31:39 PM »
u want simple?  :)

do you know what you are going to do if you flop mid pair? or say if u raised QTo and the flop is Q74r and get action? what do u do if the flop is Q92 2flushed and u get check minraised? can you answer these questions depending on if the player is tight/loose/aggressive/passive? if they have a 150/100/70/50/30 BB stack? can you think about all this, put them on a range and calculate your equity of your mediocre hand OOP and then make a profitable decision?

if not then u need to think about it a little more in depth... thats how u improve... :)

MrBlack

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Re: Improving
« Reply #18 on: April 28, 2012, 02:36:03 AM »
Ok guys hand from tonight. Not really a thinker but, just want to evaluate my thinking etc.

blinds are 300/600

I pick up AQdd in the sb.

A guy utg+2 shoves his shortstack of 1600.
Guy beside him flat calls the 1600 and leaves himself around 3500 behind.
Hijack calls aswell leaving around 14000 behind.

Now, when it gets to me in the SB im thinking I should shove, infact i almost did. But, having not seen many hands at the table except for AA/KK being slow played. I opt to call.

Flop is T88 rainbow, no diamond. MP checks, HJ bets, and i opt to fold. Was this the right play? Had I shoved I would have spiked an Ace on the river, and the HJ had JTo . If I shove PF, im headsup against the shorty who had 77.


WYoung83

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Re: Improving
« Reply #19 on: April 28, 2012, 03:18:36 AM »
What stack did u have? Pretty important. I dont think im ever folding AQs here though, the guy who flats the shove has only got 6 BBs behind (weird for him to just flat), and the guy who over calls from H/J has a pretty wide range. I would shove here with AQs.

MrBlack

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Re: Improving
« Reply #20 on: April 28, 2012, 16:01:59 PM »
Sorry I thought I had mentioned that. I had around 17000 total. Not sure why I didnt shove because I was kicking myself that I didnt.

MrBlack

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Re: Improving
« Reply #21 on: April 28, 2012, 16:03:20 PM »
Another nline hand. Was this just a cooler for me? http://www.pokerhand.org/?6377316

TheSnapper

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Re: Improving
« Reply #22 on: April 28, 2012, 23:15:12 PM »

Another nline hand. Was this just a cooler for me? http://www.pokerhand.org/?6377316

use pokerstove, check your equity, ignore results and assess whether you made the correct play and more importantly, for the correct reason.
"Being wrong is erroneously associated with failure, when, in fact, to be proven wrong should be celebrated, for it elevates someone to a new level of understanding."

AAroddersAA

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Re: Improving
« Reply #23 on: May 01, 2012, 20:15:14 PM »
Yes, the JJ hand is a cooler. It"s pretty easy to eliminate AA, KK and QQ from his range as he should be raising with those hands pre. Given what his hand actually is I am assuming he has a wide range here being very generous to him you are about 55% against his range. I am assuming he makes this play with any Ace high flush draw and OESD, top pair, two pair, a set and a straight. I think in actual fact if he had a really big hand he might call or raise less so you are probably actually better than the 55% shown here.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

112,860  games     0.004 secs    28,215,000  games/sec

Board: 5s 9s 8c
Dead:  

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    55.443%     54.91%    00.53%             61975          598.50   { JdJs }
Hand 1:    44.557%     44.03%    00.53%             49688          598.50   { TT-88, 55, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KsQs, KsJs, QsJs, JsTs, Ts9s, T7s, 98s, 85s, 76s, A9o, K9o, Q9o, J9o, T9o, T7o, 98o, 85o, 76o }

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The AdQd hand is tougher. The shortstacks shove should be really wide (although it depends how he got to less than 3BB did he blind down or did he lose an allin as if he blinded down his range is stronger but to be honest it does not matter much). The flat caller leaving just 3500 behind is a strange play as he should be calling any reraise, he hand should be pretty strong but often isn"t. The Hijacks call is probably a pretty wide range but not that strong of a hand as if he had a hand like QQ+ or AK then he should be putting the caller allin.

Let"s try and put them on Ranges

UTG +2 = Any ace, Any Pair and any two broadway
MP Caller = 88+ and Broadway with an Ace
Cut off = Some not premium hand he can call with

So I predict if we shove the MP caller is going to call and the cut off is going to fold, this happens most of the time. I can"t see that the cut off is going to be trapping often here. So we end up creating the following

Main pot = 5400
Side Pot = 7000

We need to put 4800 in the pot (in addition to the SB which was in anyway) and we don"t have to worry about being OOP.

Our chance of winning the mainpot is about 35%

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    23.732%     22.20%    01.53%         637564173     43945573.67   { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 1:    40.692%     37.72%    02.97%        1083346408     85221292.17   { 88+, ATs+, ATo+ }
Hand 2:    35.576%     31.89%    03.69%         915723396    105928787.17   { AdQd }

We are also 50/50 for the side pot

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

138,696,624  games     0.001 secs   138,696,624,000  games/sec

Board:
Dead:  

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    50.112%     43.91%    06.20%          60903120      8601169.50   { 88+, ATs+, ATo+ }
Hand 1:    49.888%     43.69%    06.20%          60591165      8601169.50   { AdQd }

The ranges I have assigned here are pretty tight and the situation could quite easily be better for you.

So from a cEV point of view

We invest 4800 chips and win a pot of 12400 so make a profit of 7600 35% of the time
We invest 4800 chips and win a pot of 7000 so make a profit of 2200 32% of the time
We lose 4800 chips 33% of the time

So on average if our reads are right we win 1780 chips per hand if we shove (this assume a fold from the cut off). So its basically got to be a shove unless something about one of the players makes you think otherwise and it would need to be a soul read. What would help is having the VP$IP and PFR of the players if you have them  although in either of these cases it is unlikely to change what you should do.

Sorry if this post goes on a bit. I am not that great at explaining this sort of situation fully, just try to get across why you do what you do.
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Still trying to think of something amusing to write in this bit.

MrBlack

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Re: Improving
« Reply #24 on: May 15, 2012, 13:21:05 PM »
I most definitley should have shoved the AQ hand but live and learn. Havent been playing much as ive moved back home and there is no live poker in NI unfrtunately. Thanks for the response btw, it has helped alot!

MrBlack

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Re: Improving
« Reply #25 on: May 15, 2012, 13:54:50 PM »
2 more hands for you guys to nit pick. http://www.pokerhand.org/?6389342  ? cooler? or can i fold? no reads as its zoom.

this one really annoyed me.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?6389338

When he raises i was putting him on AJ+/QQ+ . The raise to me screamed like overpair. Ive been caught like this far too many times so I was wary of stacking off. Looking back now, I fear he may have been doing it to get a bigger ace to fold or a flush draw to fold. Unfortunately I"ll not know what he had.

Marty719

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Re: Improving
« Reply #26 on: May 15, 2012, 15:03:13 PM »
Hand 1 is fine.  Id recomend having auto top-up on as u will be losing value in the long-term. 

Hand 2.  Again top up.  Don"t like the flat oop readless.  3b or fold pre.  As played, one of the few reasons I would donk this flop w/ ur hand would be to induce vs aggro opponents.  In general tho, I think b/f"n tpgk on a wet board is a mistake.  As played w/ 50x to start, I"m more than happy to get it in here.
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WYoung83

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Re: Improving
« Reply #27 on: May 15, 2012, 23:17:42 PM »
hand 1 standard.
Hand 2 i really hate the peel. Just fold, i dont think you are deep enough for a 3 bet (or i personally wouldnt) Once u hit i would rather check shove. Why did u donk bet? was it to find out where you are at? This is a leak if you donk bet in cash games. Obviously there are times when you can get agressive players to bluff raise because it looks so fishy. anyway, doesnt make much sense to fold now. In micro cash games i see players donk bet all the time, and i just raise it and usually take it down there and then.

AAroddersAA

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Re: Improving
« Reply #28 on: May 18, 2012, 08:41:31 AM »
Hand 1 - is simple on that board, you beat so many other Ax hands that you just want to get it in, people will call you with top pair here often enough to make a good profit. Your equity is not that bad against his actual hand either.

Hand 2 - As played I probably get it in, which is probably wrong as I doubt he is raising pre and then raising our donk bet with much we beat but we only have 50BB and when we hit top pair good kicker we don"t really have much option. I would fold pre out of position though.

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Still trying to think of something amusing to write in this bit.

deanp27

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Re: Improving
« Reply #29 on: May 18, 2012, 08:53:55 AM »
Probably just keep calling hand 1 but never folding just unlucky.

Hand 2 is a bit meh but I tend to be snug from the SB to EP opens and I would be folding KQ and KJ here a decent amount of the time. Donking out flop is not great, info bets are so 2002 (folds worse, calls or jams better = not a good bet). This made worse if villain is capable of jamming worse such as QJ or draws. Problems in this hand start preflop really, be really tight from the blinds as a default to start with and you should improve
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