PLO Flop decision

[AAroddersAA]

Microstake"s 6-max game on Pokerstars here

Villian is playing 18/11 with a 3-bet of 13% over a small sample
I am playing 40/33

I have one note on the villain that says "gets in on dry flop with bare Aces" which is very relevant to my thinking in this hand.

I am out of position with a one gapper, my opponent puts in a raise from early position and there is a three bet from a player playing 23/18 with a 3-bet of 7%. I call as I am very deep against the original raiser and the 3-bettor is deep enough. It then gets 4-bet by the OR, I think it is now highly likely he has aces. The 3-bettor folds and I call as we are 420BB deep here. The flop arrives, I check, I think this is fine as he is going to bet this flop with an AA hand, he bets out fairly strongly, now what? My options appear to be:-

1) Pot
2) Call
3) Smaller raise

PokerStars Hand #78522570761:  Omaha Pot Limit ($0.05/$0.10 USD) - 2012/04/08 13:00:31 WET [2012/04/08 8:00:31 ET]
Table "Cassiopea V" 6-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Trikkoo ($24.63 in chips)
Seat 2: 33teetwo33 ($42.43 in chips)
Seat 3: joeyroxx99 ($10 in chips)
Seat 4: Jaan1982 ($32.94 in chips)
Seat 5: capetan_yoti ($42.89 in chips)
Seat 6: NooBGrrrrr ($10.69 in chips)
33teetwo33: posts small blind $0.05
joeyroxx99: posts big blind $0.10
Trikkoo: posts the ante $0.02
33teetwo33: posts the ante $0.02
joeyroxx99: posts the ante $0.02
Jaan1982: posts the ante $0.02
capetan_yoti: posts the ante $0.02
NooBGrrrrr: posts the ante $0.02
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to 33teetwo33 [ Th ]
Jaan1982: folds
capetan_yoti: raises $0.20 to $0.30
NooBGrrrrr: raises $0.60 to $0.90
Trikkoo: folds
33teetwo33: calls $0.85
joeyroxx99: folds
capetan_yoti: raises $2.90 to $3.80
NooBGrrrrr: folds
33teetwo33: calls $2.90
*** FLOP *** [ ]
33teetwo33: checks
capetan_yoti: bets $6.50
33teetwo33: ?

[Swinebag]

You have so many outs I lost count. I pot it/get it in

You could be in poor shape if the villain has a few blockers with his aces (I think it is safe to assume aces here 90% of the time) but that is a minor consideration here.

This is a great spot to win a huge pot.

glgl

[mporter123]

Interesting hand, been re-reading it for 15mins and am unsure. I am sure people far more experienced than me will comment but I would be folding pre.

I fold to the initial 3 bet and fold again to the big 4 bet. I dont want to be playing marginal hands (of which this is just about one) out of position. Just because we are really deep, it doesnt mean we should be seeing flops at any cost with connected hands.

As played and given reads, I would be getting it in now.

[Paulie_D]

Interesting hand, been re-reading it for 15mins and am unsure. I am sure people far more experienced than me will comment but I would be folding pre.

I fold to the initial 3 bet and fold again to the big 4 bet. I dont want to be playing marginal hands (of which this is just about one) out of position. Just because we are really deep, it doesnt mean we should be seeing flops at any cost with connected hands.

As played and given reads, I would be getting it in now.

I agree with pretty much everything Mark posted.

It"s the sort of hand I like to play (my looseness at PLO is legendary) but to a 3 or 4 bet I let it go.

Once the flop comes down you have a monster draw and I"m Helmuthian in shovelling my chips in the middle.

[AMRN]

As played, with the wrap, get it in!

Not sure 78TJ with one suit is the kind of hand with which I want to be making oop calls against 3 and 4 bets pre though - a bit spewy in the long run.

[AAroddersAA]

At the moment pot is the general feeling, which I expected (I didn"t pot which I feel is an error).

Preflop is OK I think but need to run a couple of things back through Odds Oracle. In this game I actually think you can call off quite a bit more than this quite wide, although Steve"s point about being OOP is a good one. Steve in your opinion does being in position change this?

[AMRN]

At the moment pot is the general feeling, which I expected (I didn"t pot which I feel is an error).

Preflop is OK I think but need to run a couple of things back through Odds Oracle. In this game I actually think you can call off quite a bit more than this quite wide, although Steve"s point about being OOP is a good one. Steve in your opinion does being in position change this?

Position is king in all forms of poker, but massively more so in PLO. In position, the cards matter far less - out of position, they are everything.

Position gives you a number of advantages, which are exaggerated in the drawing game:
* Evaluate the equity you have in the pot more accurately
* Increases your control of the hand and of the pot
* Increases your chances of getting to showdown
* Provides you with better opportunities to bluff

[AAroddersAA]

At the moment pot is the general feeling, which I expected (I didn"t pot which I feel is an error).

Preflop is OK I think but need to run a couple of things back through Odds Oracle. In this game I actually think you can call off quite a bit more than this quite wide, although Steve"s point about being OOP is a good one. Steve in your opinion does being in position change this?

Position is king in all forms of poker, but massively more so in PLO. In position, the cards matter far less - out of position, they are everything.

Yes it is.
So would you say if we were on the button we could play this hand happily, is a 3-bet or a call from the button?

This might be a fold pre actually, I tried tried to work some stuff out on paper and the numbers don"t come out as I thought they would. It really does look like a call based purely on the maths though.

[AMRN]

At the moment pot is the general feeling, which I expected (I didn"t pot which I feel is an error).

Preflop is OK I think but need to run a couple of things back through Odds Oracle. In this game I actually think you can call off quite a bit more than this quite wide, although Steve"s point about being OOP is a good one. Steve in your opinion does being in position change this?

Position is king in all forms of poker, but massively more so in PLO. In position, the cards matter far less - out of position, they are everything.

Yes it is.
So would you say if we were on the button we could play this hand happily, is a 3-bet or a call from the button?

This might be a fold pre actually, I tried tried to work some stuff out on paper and the numbers don"t come out as I thought they would. It really does look like a call based purely on the maths though.

Fold pre. If I had a fully connected run through without the gap, I would probably raise the button. With 78TJ I would definitely consider calling on the button.  oop, I just wouldn"t want to be in the hand at all.

[AMRN]

If we assume the 4bet range to be a double suited hand with a pair and an Ace - RANGE[SUITED:DBL-ANY-ANY+PAIR:ANY,A+], our hand has 50.1%.    So in essence we"re flipping, and having to play the rest of the hand oop - there could also be a danger of significant reverse implied odds against hands like AAKQ where we might catch the wrong end of the straight.

[AAroddersAA]

Will respond to the above later, this may not be relevant but thought I would post it anyway.

The preflop percentages are not really that relevant. We are about 40% against a range of AA though.

If anybody can help with this calculation it would be nice.

Assuming his range is AAxx only which does not seem unfair to be honest.

It costs $2.90 to call the 4-bet and we create a pot of $8.72.

Most flops that we continue with will have at least 60% equity. Some will be a bit lower mainly due to the possibility of suited aces, most are better. I am only continuing after the flop with the folllowing hands:-

Straight
Straight draw with at least 13 outs
three of a kind
two pair
one pair and straight draw with at least 8 outs

These hand seem to give us around 60% on average. Odds oracle say we flop 60% 23% of the time.

So 77 times in 100 we lose our investment of $2.90 = -$223.30

40% of the 23 times we get it in we lose our stack
23/100 * 40 = 9.2*38.61 = 355.21

Total loss = $578.51

60% of the times we get it in we win $47.33
23/100 * 60 = 13.8* = 653.15

Total money made = $653.15

Net profit on call = about 74c per hand

This assumes zero fold equity and we are able to pick spots where we will are 60% on the flop and means we assume we play perfectly. If our opponent folds then our win rate goes up in theory as we win more if he folds than our average profit per hand if we always get it in.

[Paulie_D]

[AAroddersAA]

Using something I found online (http://www.cardplayer.com/poker-tools/odds-calculator/omaha)
I ran your hand against         which sort of fits.

Pre-flop: You"re 46% against that.
Post: 70%

If I give him suited , you"re 38% pre and 67% post.

FWIW.

We don"t know what his hand is though, we can put him quite confidently on  range of AAxx which we are 40% against pre and 66% against post flop. This includes all possible combos of AAxx.

What I would like to know is what are the range of hands we can flop that make up an equity of 60% or better post flop. There does not seem to be a way to do it in Odds Oracle if anybody knows of a way then I would be very interested to find out about it.

[noble1]

Odds Oracle Results (2.03 Professional)
Omaha Hi, Generic syntax
PLAYER_1 Js7sTh8d
PLAYER_2 AA**
7967 trials (randomized)


PLAYER_1 HAND_VS_HAND Next Street Equity


do u mean something like next street equity Rodders?

[AAroddersAA]

I have the next street equity.

What I don"t really understand how I work out what hand range gives me the equity I need to get it in and make a profit. I put some figures into Odds Oracle and can pretty much guesstimate it is 60%. The average flop equity tells me I need 45% to break even to get it in on the flop but I still lose the preflop investment that way.

I think I am missing something here?