What would You Do ??????

[noble1]

check

[TheSnapper]

check

extreme Noble, a one word reply. How did it feel

[AAroddersAA]

Thought I had updated this thread yesterday, did the post get deleted for taking the mick out of Noble (I am very sorry) :-)

Anyway we decided the 3-bet to £27 and both limper"s folded (bonus).

A flop then arrived of -4c-Td

We have £123 behind with 57 in the middle. It is us to speak so what shall we do?

ugghhh what an ugly spot. oop versus two villains. Its good that the shorty has position on the OR so I like leading for £35 folding if raised.

Both limper have folded mate, does that change it for you?

[TheSnapper]

you in sb original raiser and lp caller have seen the flop?

[AAroddersAA]

you in sb original raiser and lp caller have seen the flop?

Sorry my mistake had this hand mixed up with another one I was looking at, yes as you said we are three way.

[Newportlad]

For what its worth, i just like calling with AK here in the SB and seeing the flop. As has been stated previously, there are certain to be AX and KX in hands already, so your chances of hitting arent great and most importantly you are OOP.  If you make a big raise and get called, what are you doing when you miss here?  If you check to the 10 high board, then you are pretty clearly stating that you have AK, but by c.betting you are going to have to put a lot of your starting stack £150 into the pot on what is essentially a bluff. 
I just like trying to keep the pot small preflop as you are in a bad spot. No harm in just throwing the AK away if you miss the flop.

[TheSnapper]

For what its worth, i just like calling with AK here in the SB and seeing the flop. As has been stated previously, there are certain to be AX and KX in hands already, so your chances of hitting arent great and most importantly you are OOP.  If you make a big raise and get called, what are you doing when you miss here?  If you check to the 10 high board, then you are pretty clearly stating that you have AK, but by c.betting you are going to have to put a lot of your starting stack £150 into the pot on what is essentially a bluff. 
I just like trying to keep the pot small preflop as you are in a bad spot. No harm in just throwing the AK away if you miss the flop.

Its an option ok but its not all good. AK plays much better heads up so the less players see a flop the better.

We build a pot by raising pre so we can potentially win a huge pot when we do hit. I wouldn"t agree that it"s a certainty limpers hold Ax and Kx hands, somewhat likely ok certain, no. < Noble insert probability link here >

Also and significantly, we run the increased risk of getting outflopped when we do hit and are second best, the expensive place on the poker podium.

Not sure it matters much in this game but your SB raising range is super strong if AK isn"t included.

[Mikeyboy9361]

I know what you are saying about thinning the field, but AK OOP in these cash games can land you in very expensive tricky positions, just like this. That is why flatting was definitely an option. As played I think you pretty much have to lead out, and fold to any raise, but hope to see a cheap turn and river!

[WYoung83]

 (I replied to this other day but it was when the server was slow)

Anyway flatting is not the best line imo. It seems like negative play. Also i would personally raise bigger than £30. Maybe £40, trouble with live cash is that 3 betting small get peeled by more than 1 player, and thats a disaster taking this had 4 ways. If you hit A in 4 way pot your oop which makes it really hard to play. I would be hapy to take the dead money here or even play for stacks, if i get 5 bet.

(Just read whole thread).... yeh lead out now, bad flop for u, no real back doors and no big cards at all, in these games its hard to get people to fold pairs. Have to fold if he shoves on you.

[AAroddersAA]

OK, Brendan is betting (I would also do this), Noble is checking (although I don"t think he had given up yet).

Anyway, we bet the flop as per Brendan we are leading £35 into £57. The OR calls (damn) and the other players folds. The turn pops -

Its us to speak, pot is £127 out stack is £88

What now? Why? What do we think he has

[WYoung83]

 I would actually shove this turn. Pretty hard for it to have helped his hand, and certainly improves your range from his POV. A Shove looks so strong here, i cant do EV calcs, (just tried and got confused lol)

[Santino67]

I would actually shove this turn. Pretty hard for it to have helped his hand, and certainly improves your range from his POV. A Shove looks so strong here, i cant do EV calcs, (just tried and got confused lol)

Tend to think same here. You"ve shown strength pre and on flop, though knowledge of particular oppenent would help.

[noble1]

I would actually shove this turn. Pretty hard for it to have helped his hand, and certainly improves your range from his POV. A Shove looks so strong here, i cant do EV calcs, (just tried and got confused lol)

give it a go, post it and ask if its correct... [best way to learn]

as a quick rough estimate, with a possible 10 outs versus a range of say TT for a set , 99 and JJ equity wise AK would be around the 17% area + or - a percent.. if jamming the turn and u think villain will fold 15 to 20% ish of the time then u will break even EV wise.. some1 give the EV calc a bash, as a base guide the pot is 127 and 88 behind -> 88/215=41%  so u"d want 41 folds to break even if u have no outs whatsoever...

all on reads, as the villain isolated 2 limpers his flop calling a 3bet range would be likely TT+ and maybe a % of air with over-cards which he might float with [but we have no reads to make that assumption]
u could maybe with reads say he isolated with 99 maybe 88, AT met be a likely candidate in villains isolation range, but to calll a 3bet? hell if i know

all on reads, its hard to guess what he has based on hardly no info, jamming the turn is a option but not a wildly profitable one given the lack of knowledge imo... if u were playing these opponents on a regular basis then g-bucks wise by giving our hand a perceived range and comparing it to our opponents range, u could look at this completely differently in the long term, but at this level though do u need to play like that to make money?

[Fatcatstu]

I would jam this turn and feel sick when he calls.

I realise that we have put a bit of money in, but surely there comes a point when we kind of say "ok, well done" and give up? Yes we leave ourselves open to be outplayed, but that is the risk you run playing out of position i suppose.

Meh, not sure what to do here, i think actually giving up most of the time feels right here, just not seeing what he has called with that we are gonna make lay down.

ALTHOUGH 80 odd-notes is a fair bit of money... could convice him to lay down.

My god....im confused.

[PHIL_TC]

Raise pre to £30

Bet the flop.. hmmmm however putting myself in oppo"s shoes, given the positions, would be expecting C-bet large % of the time, so as long as I feel I still have show down or ahead (pretty likely on that flop) then I"m calling. So maybe checking is the right move.. I"d go on past history here to see what I could get away with. Can"t see the oppo going away at all here though. Feel like I"m flipping for the hand at this point.

Turn. I don"t see any sense in jamming here at all. If I felt I was flipping on the flop, why would I now jam in on the turn? Makes no sense. Oppo obviously feels they have value in the hand, I can"t see them going away here.

Personally I would think that I"ve put enough in the pot here already, check and be prepared to fold but hoping to see the river... if not seek a waitress and order another Guinness x