Author Topic: Push or Fold  (Read 5278 times)

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Erimus

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Push or Fold
« on: June 14, 2012, 22:52:20 PM »
Down to last 4 of big $33 prizes are
1:$5879
2:$4271
3:$3194
4:$2387

I am big blind and have been succesfully pushing atc against other shortstack who has folded all the time,
so have just managed to overtake him in chips although only a very small amount, the chipleader wasnt that aggro despite his huge chip lead and was fairly sure he wasnt raising light at any stage.

PokerStars Hand #81813234656: Tournament #577010221, $30+$3 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XLIII (17500/35000) - 2012/06/11 18:43:32 WET [2012/06/11 13:43:32 ET]
Table "577010221 22" 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 2: erimus14 (228729 in chips)
Seat 3: Guillem B (166783 in chips)
Seat 6: S3calhar (2325618 in chips)
Seat 9: randy6904 (641870 in chips)
erimus14: posts the ante 4375
Guillem B: posts the ante 4375
S3calhar: posts the ante 4375
randy6904: posts the ante 4375
randy6904: posts small blind 17500
erimus14: posts big blind 35000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to erimus14 [6h 6d]
Guillem B: folds
S3calhar: raises 35000 to 70000
randy6904: folds

deanp27

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Re: Push or Fold
« Reply #1 on: June 14, 2012, 23:09:51 PM »
Meh I"d probably jam in game but if CL really isnt abusing his position like he should be it could be a fold
Looking forward to making my first day 2

Swinebag

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Re: Push or Fold
« Reply #2 on: June 14, 2012, 23:33:59 PM »
pair feel like the nuts here (4 handed and short stacked) and despite your description of the CL, I"m happy to gamble here (as he"s not folding)

I"m not sure this may be the best line though.

Pretty sure there are some ICM calculations that will work out the best option
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Bigfella42

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Re: Push or Fold
« Reply #3 on: June 14, 2012, 23:36:07 PM »
With an M of just over 4 I"d have thought this was an easy shove to give yourself a chance of winning the lot.

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Delboy

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Re: Push or Fold
« Reply #4 on: June 14, 2012, 23:41:09 PM »
Yeah, got to shove here.

Nice cash btw.

duke3016

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Re: Push or Fold
« Reply #5 on: June 14, 2012, 23:42:05 PM »
erm - shove (thats just me and your recent results mean whatever decision you made was right  ;D )

AMRN

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Re: Push or Fold
« Reply #6 on: June 14, 2012, 23:43:43 PM »
Not sure what you"re waiting for if you don"t shove here.  With those stack sizes and in this spot, I would beat him into the pot

Erimus

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Re: Push or Fold
« Reply #7 on: June 15, 2012, 00:35:42 AM »


Agree with most I should shove and in most circumstances i would but here decided not too reasons being,

1:chip leader was never folding so was a flip at best.

2: the other 2 players were folding to shoves or resolves so I was getting chips and had pulled back to possibly get 3rd an extra $800. I also understand giving myself the chance to win the lot but I thought the chipleader had such an advantage that 2 or 3rd was the best I was going to get unless I got really lucky.

3: I am a nit there you go said it.

I finally went out when I pushed AK and chipleader took an age to call with A5, the 5 binked.

I ran the hand through sng wiz as a matter of interest and it advised fold and it recommended Shoves with JJ+ only.



dwh103

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Re: Push or Fold
« Reply #8 on: June 15, 2012, 07:06:47 AM »



Agree with most I should shove and in most circumstances i would but here decided not too reasons being,

1:chip leader was never folding so was a flip at best.

2: the other 2 players were folding to shoves or resolves so I was getting chips and had pulled back to possibly get 3rd an extra $800. I also understand giving myself the chance to win the lot but I thought the chipleader had such an advantage that 2 or 3rd was the best I was going to get unless I got really lucky.

3: I am a nit there you go said it.

I finally went out when I pushed AK and chipleader took an age to call with A5, the 5 binked.

I ran the hand through sng wiz as a matter of interest and it advised fold and it recommended Shoves with JJ+ only.


Folding is tough in the heat of the moment (especially when you"re already in shove/fold mentality), but seriously good fold. It"s so easy to "not be on your game" and auto-shove spots like these - I probably do!

The stack size dynamic is really weird here, and a fold is definitely correct. You literally gain nothing from tangling with the chipleader here - even more so given the reads and dynamic you"ve described where you"re successfully chipping up by attacking the shorter stacks.

Equity - Before the hand, after the hand if folded, after the hand if doubled

Seat 2: erimus14 (228729 in chips) - $3,257, $3,171, $3,725
Seat 3: Guillem B (166783 in chips) - $3,035, $3,065, $2,893
Seat 6: S3calhar (2325618 in chips) - $5,313, $5,357, $5,157
Seat 9: randy6904 (641870 in chips) - $4,123, $4,136, $3,954

You stand to lose $784 in equity if you call and lose (difference between 4th place and your equity had you folded), but only gain $554 if you call and win. If he"s never folding you need to be around 59% to win just to break even and 66 clearly doesn"t cut it. Even without any reads it"s hard to assume you have any FE here anyway given his overwhelming chip position.

Having short stacks isn"t really an issue here, you"ll find enough spots to get it in first, you"ve got enough to knock on rival out, and seriously hurt another - that"s all that matters. Agree with you in that you should forget the chipleader, your game is against the other two.
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AMRN

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Re: Push or Fold
« Reply #9 on: June 15, 2012, 09:22:26 AM »
Well, when you put it like that Dave.....   Great analysis!

Perhaps a leak in my game then - I can just never fold in that spot, but given Dave"s ICM analysis, actually a fold is almost mandatory.


Erimus

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Re: Push or Fold
« Reply #10 on: June 15, 2012, 10:47:58 AM »
Cheers for the numbers there dw, I am no longer a nit I am a maths genius lol, I can"t profess to say I was aware of the differences in equity at the time but just felt that it was right to fold given the other stacks involved.

Had a similar situation in a live game during the week a local reg had dwindled to 2 big blinds (if you read Pokerpops blog it was the same game), I raise folded 77 against a 12 big blind shove, I had 10 bigs left £30 saver for bubble or £180 chop as it turned out, Mr 2 big blinds went out next hand.

Got to be aware of stack sizes around the table.

noble1

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Re: Push or Fold
« Reply #11 on: June 15, 2012, 12:06:22 PM »
Quote
I can"t profess to say I was aware of the differences in equity at the time


http://www.pokerxfactor.com/sheets/

join here first as a free member - https://www.pokerxfactor.com/servlet/pxf?&a=mv&t=home - if u can"t use Eric"s spreadsheets....
go to ""chop"" and during games u can quickly put in payouts and chip counts and it will give u your ICM equity [use your time banks wisely :) leave the money left on table at zero in the calc] plus don"t forget to factor in blinds and antes and if u fold who is big blind next etc etc....

article on tournament equity - http://mag.bluffmagazine.com/increase-your-equity-2275/

another way of analysing it - if i double up here how many times out of 100 will i get 3rd 2nd and 1st and do some guesstimating on risk/award and vice versa if u fold or even run some numbers on a flat call :o...


mal666

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Re: Push or Fold
« Reply #12 on: June 15, 2012, 12:36:23 PM »
ICM suicide, shoving this.

Swinebag

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Re: Push or Fold
« Reply #13 on: June 15, 2012, 18:08:39 PM »
Yep, deffo leak for me

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