Thanks noble,
In my mind I"m dead to A2-A7 and Q9 of diamonds. Would expect him to 3bet A9+ pre, especially in his current mindset. I"m 50/50 on him 3betting wider (especially the Aces with wheel kickers).
I have outs vs all suited connectors and suited one-gappers, say 76 down to 43, and 97 down to 53 and I"m ahead of 88 and 77.
Pot is £77 before I make my turn decision to call £40 more. Assume he has £125 back and a river diamond shuts one or both of us down (i.e. neither loses any more money):
Vs "dead" hands (7 combos). Go broke on non-diamond river (-138.75), otherwise lose turn call (-6.36)
Vs smaller flushes (9 combos). Go broke on non-diamond river (-138.75), otherwise win turn pot on diamond river (12.25)
Vs set (6 combos). Go broke on paired board (-37.5), win turn pot on diamond river (12.25), win on blank river (101.25)
Then against his strength-only range my EV is -£77.19. If I give him a wider 3betting pre range (50/50 he 3bets Ax suited) then it"s a little better -£66.47.
Main difference is I"d give him a wider combo-draw range of 99, QJ, K9, Q9, J9, T9, 98, 97 and A2-A8, all with a diamond. His turn raise is greater than pot, and to me it"s clearly setting up a river shove - it doesn"t make me feel he"s trying to get value with a made hand.
EV calcs I"ve made (had to bring out Excel now) show that if he 3bets this range on the turn 100% of the time, and bluff jams 0%, my EV against these hands is £55.99. Applying the same logic for Ax hands as above in respect of 3betting pre makes a little positive difference to my EV. If he bluff jams 10% of the time it"s break-even for me to continue from the turn.
If he bluff jams 100% of the time, then Villain needs to have this range or air ~40% of the time for me to break even.
Just going by combos, the ratio of made hands to draws is approx 1:2. If that"s a fair range and we"re assuming an even distribution he"ll need to bluff jam river 41% of the time for me to break even. Realistically his range is possibly a bit tighter, but I do expect him to jam river more often. And for all the numbers there"s a load of assumptions that could be completely wrong - I"ll try and speak to the guy!
Having gone through all that I think it"s pretty close either way - less profitable than I thought at the time certainly. Overall I have no major issues given the Villain and the metagame involved.
Finally - your guesstimates were pretty decent - congrats!