his range is near impossible to pin down at this stage. Whatever the answer is, it"s pretty wide. The is a pretty key blocker for the high suited cards he could call with. I"d expect to get 3bet from a reasonable hand pre, so if he does have me beat, it"s by a suited connector (I have outs) or an outside chance of Q9 or A2-A7 suited. He may or may not 3bet these hands pre.
And obviously there"s a shedload I"m miles ahead of. So here"s the next action.
Turn (£7)
Villain bets £5
Hero raises to £15
Villain raises to £55
Hero?
The critical problem for me is what range does he put me on? I"ve checked the flop hoping he"d think I"d cbet the hand I have in the event it hits, which it now has. Thinking about it I"m of the opinion my range is relatively polarised here to flush, draw or air - weighted toward the latter. There"s the odd weak made hand in there I guess, but that"s also a small part. Anyway, I think my range looks weak, if this is the case the Villain could be 3betting reasonably wide - am I wrong here about how my range looks? And what do you do from here?
Thanks guys, having asked some friends of mine they"ve all agreed with the above. I was doubting myself!
Agree with Rob that I"m playing the hand like I"m ahead all the way, and at the time I had Louis" thinking that he wouldn"t 3bet the turn with the made flush as my range is relatively weak. Surely he can"t expect to get too much value.
However with my range polarised a 3bet from him does make sense if he thinks I could be on a combo draw. with a Ace of diamonds or a smaller made flush or a set or he may think u have hit 2pair His range can be uber wide if he thinks I"m weak and setting himself up for a river shove on a blank. Bet sizing made me think this was coming.
So I flatted the £55 as per Rob. He then jams blank river, I call. He shows .
Felt cold decked at the time, and was mulling over whether I could play any different, but I don"t think so.
Thanks again for your input gentlemen.
with this texture and you holding the
its hard to even put him on a hand he turns into a pure bluff here imo, well lets put it this way, its hard to put him on enough % bluffs to warrent only calling the turn 3bet...
You can put villain on a few semi bluffs -
Jx X3 ,
Tx , Jx
, Kx
, Kx Qx X2 ,
9x - for 9 combos that all have a decent amount of equity ranging from 8, 12 outs to 13 outs [13/46=28%] there are some top pair hands Kx Qx but i"d err to only thinking villain only 3betting this type at 30% at most [till proven otherwise] add in percentages that he folds xx or only flats certain parts of his range to your re-raise i think the above semi bluffs would be ok at this level to assume, u know villain and this cash level better than i so how much pure air could he have, if any? 20% 30% 40% ? to actually consider the turn call i"d guesstimate u need villain to be pure air bluffing 35% plus and to continue bluffing on the river 40% plus.. Judging by the turn actions and the board texture, there wont be enough blank rivers for villain to continue bluffing that high of a frequency... [unless you thought otherwise at the time]
His made hand range with how the action has gone i"d assume - 88 x3 , 77 x3 ,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
- for 15 combo"s [u"d be in a better position at the time to make a judgement call as to the sets and how much of percentage he might just flat etc etc....
So bare bones u are ahead of 7combo"s with out draws against u, dead to 9combo"s , ahead to the 6 combo"s of sets with out draws against u and villain is dead with 2 combo"s.......
Not hugely +EV to 4bet re-raise jam but its a better option than folding if u put his range in this sort of ball park along with some pure air or himself going nutty with top pair hands, but if u run the calcs he needs to be bluffing air at around 20% along with his semi draws and betting a good amount of river bluffs to favour calling his turn 3bet plus u"d need a feel of his play to guesstimate how often he could check fold a set if a diamond came on the river, check give up on bluffs....
run some EV calcs is my suggestion, i think u"ll be surprised at just how little profit u make and how much u stand to lose in this situation when u break down all the scenarios...