How would you read this play??

[evilpie]

Just wondering what others would make of this play from DTD Saturday live event, £50 buy in, 141 runners.

Level 5 so blinds are 200/400 with 25 ante

Average is about 7000. I"m on 7100 having just clawed back from 2k 5 minutes ago. I"ve been playing very tight and have made my chips back recently with A9 suited which hit the A and QQ which I showed after initial raiser folded to my shove. Other than this I"ve not played much at all.

I"m in middle position with  td tc.

UTG folds, position 2 limps. I"m next to act and raise to 1200.

Everyone folds through to BB who calls the 1200 as does the original limper.

Flop comes  ::

BB with 12k behind him checks to position 2 (with about 7k) who bets 4000 in to the 4000 pot.

I"m sat with 5900 and a bit unsure of what to do or what to put him on. Is he bullying? Has he got a genuine hand? Is he flushing? Does he just hope I"m on AK / AQ and will fold?

Additionally - BB has just joined table so I don"t know anything about him. Position 2 has played a lot of pots. Also he limped a while ago with aces but ended up getting them cracked when 5 players joined the pot.

I"ll tell you the outcome when a few let me know what they would"ve done. If you need more info let me know and I"ll amend this post.

Thanks

[tumblet]

Im shoving it in.. you are ahead...

But i fear a BB story, so ur behind to trips?

[texfitz]

 :: ::

he"s asking "are you commited"

[HaworthBantam]

I"d have to ask myself a few questions....

Is the guy in position 2 likely to slow play a big hand (over pair to your tens) again so soon after having his Aces cracked ?

Is the guy in position 2 likely to call a raise and a caller with a small pair, knowing that 2 players are in there and there"s a BIG percentage chance of overcards ?

If your answer to these two questions is "no", then I"d be pushing - maybe think he"s on AK or AQ.

Having no info on the BB is a problem. With his check on the flop, I"d probably think he called the original raise to "protect" his blind - or as I like to call it, donk off good chips after bad.  

On saying that, what the hell do I know.......

[AMRN]

Also have to ask yourself whether you will find yourself in such a strong position with an overpair to the flop before the blinds start to catch up with you. You"re back below the average again following your preflop action....

If you planned the hand and your actions prior to making your first raise, I wonder what flop you were hoping to see with your 10 10.... 257 seems perfect. You must have considered when you made your preflop raise that if the flop came low, you might be asked to commit your stack..... and if you weren"t prepared to commit with 10 10 on a 257 flop, then don"t waste the chips preflop.

In my opinion, you"ve made the correct raise preflop and having received a call, you are praying for a low flop... which you have got. Only one thing to do now - Shove it in!!  If you lose to a bigger pair, c"est la vie and move to the cash tables..... if you see 88 or 99, or even AK, you just put yourself into a strong position with potential to go deep.

[evilpie]

Thanks for the responses. It"s good to know that I was on the right lines and didn"t make the stupidest move I possibly could.

I didn"t put him on an over pair to my tens because like Haworth said is he really going to risk it so soon after having aces cracked. I was thinking probably a big ace that had missed and he was hoping that I"d fold.

The result was that I shoved, BB folded, position 2 called with his trip 2"s. I lost and went to play on the cash tables  

The thing that"s bothered me afterwards is whether my initial raise was ever going to be big enough to see off the original limper? If he was prepared to put 400 into an 800 pot with 6 still to act then there"s a good chance he will put the extra 800 in when there"s no further action pre flop. Even without the BB calling it was going to cost him 800 in to a pot of 2000 so slightly better pot odds than he had before his initial call.

I know that if I were in his position with a pair of 2"s I"d be folding to any raise because you"re only ever hoping to hit the miracle 2 but what about everyone else? I know that his pot odds had improved following the BB calling but not enough to justify chasing a deuce.

Would you have called the raise and BB call?? Then after hitting your miracle 2 would you have bet the pot to potentially get rid of everyone without extracting more chips?

Was this guy a very bad player or a really really good one in a clever disguise??

[HaworthBantam]

Would you have called the raise and BB call?? Then after hitting your miracle 2 would you have bet the pot to potentially get rid of everyone without extracting more chips?

I certainly wouldn"t have called the raise in early position with a pair of 2"s. I probably wouldn"t have even limped in, to be honest, it would have been an easy fold. IMHO, the majority of times that player is going to be throwing chips away with that kind of play.

Once he"d hit the flop, however, I thought his play wasn"t that bad. Was he able to put you on an overpair to the board ? Maybe, maybe not. I"d be betting whether I"d hit or not, just in case you do have the overpair - the last thing I"d want to do is give you (and the BB) a free card for you to hit. With my 2"s I"d probably want to be taking the pot there, and counting my blessings that I didn"t have to show the 2"s. Obviously it didn"t work that way, but.......

Was this guy a very bad player or a really really good one in a clever disguise??

Not sure. I thought his play pre flop was suspect, but post flop was ok.

[GiMac]

I think his play both post and pre-flop is ok. We don"t know what percentage of his stack the 800 was for him to call and whilst you say he doesn"t have the pot odds to call, which is correct, he is getting just over 3:1 to call and he will only hit 7.5:1, it isn"t quite the miracle you precieve it to be. If the flop comes like it has and you have AK or AQ he probably takes the pot down there and then and if you have an overpair to the board he takes all your chips, so the implied odds are definitely there. As I said the only gap in our info here is his stack size, but that aside he isn"t as complete a donkey as he initially looks.

[George2Loose]

I would definately raise more pre flop.

1200 just isn"t enough to one limper. I would make it at 1600 or maybe 2000.

As far as the flop is concerned his bet is telling you he has either a flopped set or some sort of huge draw.

If he is sneaky his range could even include an over pair QQ+

Fold.

[technolog]

You at a loose end this morning George?

[George2Loose]

Whatever gave you that idea???

[evilpie]

I think his play both post and pre-flop is ok. We don"t know what percentage of his stack the 800 was for him to call and whilst you say he doesn"t have the pot odds to call, which is correct, he is getting just over 3:1 to call and he will only hit 7.5:1, it isn"t quite the miracle you precieve it to be. If the flop comes like it has and you have AK or AQ he probably takes the pot down there and then and if you have an overpair to the board he takes all your chips, so the implied odds are definitely there. As I said the only gap in our info here is his stack size, but that aside he isn"t as complete a donkey as he initially looks.

Alright then maybe miracle was a bit over the top. Perhaps statistically unlikely is a bit closer the mark  

His stack size is there but possibly a bit hidden. He"d put in 1200 pre flop then bet 4000 of his 7k remaining. The 1200 pre flop was about 15% of his stack and he only just had me covered.

I certainly wasn"t calling him a donkey. It was more my play that I was concerned with mainly in how much I raised.

Like George2Loose says it was probably not enough (definitely with hindsight ).

Even now I don"t know what I should"ve done. If I raise to 2000 then I"m almost committed. My actual raise wasn"t enough to make him fold. Maybe I should have pushed pre flop but that seems a bit risky with .

With hindsight I know I should"ve folded but that would be very weak after that flop. I"m quite a good short stack player (plenty of practice ) so the fold wouldn"t have put me in desperation.

Looks like I made a mistake  . I"d probably do the same next time though

[REvans84]

[deanp27]

i"d even consider shoving preflop. With the limper, blinds and antes it will well over 1k to your 7k stack, the 1200 raise is just not enough to get the limper to fold.

Not sure about his play with 22 tbh. At this blind level i am always opening with a raise, otherwise i fold as i think limp/folding, limp/calling/folding is very spewy when playing such hands out of position and is also pretty transparent as a baby pair. However your small raise and the pricing in of the BB makes the limp call viable for him. His bet on the flop is very odd to me, he hits the perfect flop and then pots it, giving you the opportunity to get away from your hand.

IMO you made your mistake preflop by not raising enough.

[UKChamp]

1.stack sizes and blinds/pot dictate that if im raising pre I may as well shove.
2.if you want to preserve your stack limping isnt so bad but is obviously a big gamble and my least favourite option - you have to hit to win
3.the limp utg worries me, at this stage i expect a big pair looking for a raise to push against, so i actually dont rule out a fold with so many to act behind assuming u bottle on the push.