Tough spot...

[PantsMan]

This hand occurred in a big tourney I played recently...

Young aggressive player who"s been playing a lot of hands raises in mid position. I"ve got pocket eights and call as does one other player.

Board comes        giving me trips.

I bet, the young guy folds and the other guy calls.

The turn was the (giving me quads) and I bet 200,000. The other guy calls very quickly.

The river completed the board with the and I bet 700,000. The other guy raises all in for 3.4 million total.




Read more: http://www.pokernews.com/live-reporting/2012-world-series-of-poker/event-55-the-big-one-for-one-drop-no-limit-hold-em/day1/post.207240.htm

[duke3016]

OK as mentioned before NO FECKING WAY am I folding. But then I am an eejit

[Fatcatstu]

Fold pre. Fold flop. Fold turn. Fold river.

[AAroddersAA]

I can"t fold ever but have read some opinion of far better players and understand why it is not as bad as it sounds. What can you actually beat? The guy who raised the river would almost certainly 3-bet JJ or KK preflop and on that board with that flopped set would usually raise. If he flopped the straight the turn is a terrible card for him. If he flopped a set it is a great card and I would again expect him to raise the turn with a FH. If he just has a straight he might call. The river should change nothing KK would have 3 bet preflop. The only hand that I can see he COULD have got here with that we beat is 77 and the way the hand has played that looks unlikely. The only hand that makes sense here is that he flopped the nuts and turned the straight flush.

I didn"t figure all this out myself just what I have read from far better players but it does actually make sense. A few of the top players who watched the hand commented they would not fold but would expect to be shown 9sTs more than half the time.

[AMRN]

imo this comes down the standard of the opposition.  ie if you were playing a $1 donkament on Pokerstars, would you fold? Of course not.... but in a tourney with a $1M buy in, and against the best players in the world, it"s actually not that bad a fold.

That said though, and although I can see and understand all the reasons why folding is reasonable, I don"t think I could fold quads there in any circumstance.

[Paulie_D]

Even if a case can be made for folding the second nuts... Which I can"t see... There is no excuse for folding face up.

[WYoung83]

Ill do whatever Phil Galfond says, he said 50% of the time with his line we would see 910ss, so the rest is jacks full or Ax spades i guess.

Anyway why would the villian not ever show up with JJ here? Or even Ax spades? I cant understand the ammount of people saying (other forums also) that he would 3 bet JJ, how do they know he would do this, are they basing it on history, the fact hes a businessman, or the way hes played last few hands, or the fact hes on Btn?

Personally i think Quads was best hand. other guy said that he didnt show out of respect. which sounds like he didnt wanna make a fool out of the other guy by showing a worse hand.

[pables]

Even if a case can be made for folding the second nuts... Which I can"t see... There is no excuse for folding face up.

Perhaps he was setting up an image for the future when he plays in bigger games  

[WYoung83]

Guy who won the hand finally found a game where people respect your raises.

[AAroddersAA]

Ill do whatever Phil Galfond says, he said 50% of the time with his line we would see 910ss, so the rest is jacks full or Ax spades i guess.

Anyway why would the villian not ever show up with JJ here? Or even Ax spades? I cant understand the ammount of people saying (other forums also) that he would 3 bet JJ, how do they know he would do this, are they basing it on history, the fact hes a businessman, or the way hes played last few hands, or the fact hes on Btn?

Personally i think Quads was best hand. other guy said that he didnt show out of respect. which sounds like he didnt wanna make a fool out of the other guy by showing a worse hand.

There is a lot more information available in this hand than that to make JJ not that likely of a hand. He could have it but the way he has played almost every street does not suggest that hand. Can"t see Ax of spades. That just a call to the bet on the river as nothing worse calls that raise.

[Jon MW]

.... but in a tourney with a $1M buy in, and against the best players in the world, ...

but it isn"t against the best players in the world - it"s against some of the best players in the world and some competent but very rich businessmen.

I think that"s what makes this hand more ambiguous - if it was against one of the pros then quads might be losing more than half the time.