Call or fold $30 cubed Stars

[TheSnapper]

Brendan whats the reason behind folding here mate? When I looked at it initially I thought it was a fold but then did some numbers and it looks like a call now. I should add I an hung over today so could be talking rubbish :-)

Tbh Steve, intuitively I felt it was close and did"nt like the idea of risking 20 bigs 16.64 bigs in such a marginal spot. It is an interesting spot but tbh I am much more interested in the factors we consider to arrive at our decision (teach a man to fish )

Happy to be corrected and fix a leak but I"ll need more than "snap fist pump call" to justify one action over another. My current position is based on the following factors I think are relevent.

Its a big bet to call off with KQs.
More than half the combos in his range are Ax.
Ax and pocket pairs account for nearly 75% of that range.
We are button on his BB, we will have ample opportunity to play pots with him and stack him.
Yes as you correctly point out, it"s a +ev spot but we risk 16.64 bigs for that 1.8 bigs so risk reward is a factor.

[hi_am_chris]

If we call and lose it doesnt leave us desperate, calling and winning give us even more room to play aggressively and bully the table. Prefer to call here with kq than ace rag or a small pair, feel like we are going to be in good shape more often

[WYoung83]

I would fold this quite comfortably, there is probably going to be easier chips to win at the table by stealing and c betting vs BB peels rather than take such a big variance shot.

[noble1]

villain has to jam 15% plus to make raise call +cEV if going strictly by the maths.. anything less than 15% raise fold 2nd best option and believe it or not all in shove is the most cEV.. though when u do this no doubt the sb big stack will wake up with KK AA

[deanp27]

On phone at work so difficult to do maths etc but do we need to be around 40% vs his range to make this call correct EV wise? If so turning down a flip situation is probably a mistake because our edge is unlikely to be huge at this stage and having a 20bb stack who likes shoving 2to our left is going to mean opportunities to exploit our perceived edge may be limited.

Alot depends on stage of tournament etc though and can accept why people would fold.

Open jamming is obv terrible though with the guy in the SB. Prefer open folding lol

[mal666]

With antes we are effectively playing 800/1600.

[AAroddersAA]

Brendan whats the reason behind folding here mate? When I looked at it initially I thought it was a fold but then did some numbers and it looks like a call now. I should add I an hung over today so could be talking rubbish :-)

Tbh Steve, intuitively I felt it was close and did"nt like the idea of risking 20 bigs 16.64 bigs in such a marginal spot. It is an interesting spot but tbh I am much more interested in the factors we consider to arrive at our decision (teach a man to fish )

Happy to be corrected and fix a leak but I"ll need more than "snap fist pump call" to justify one action over another. My current position is based on the following factors I think are relevent.

Its a big bet to call off with KQs.
More than half the combos in his range are Ax.
Ax and pocket pairs account for nearly 75% of that range.
We are button on his BB, we will have ample opportunity to play pots with him and stack him.
Yes as you correctly point out, it"s a +ev spot but we risk 16.64 bigs for that 1.8 bigs so risk reward is a factor.

Needed to spend some time with a response to this. I"m pretty sure that ALL of my posts in this section entail a whole lot more than "fist pump call" though ;-)

It"s a big bet to call off with KQs, and his range of mostly made up of Ax and smaller pairs, agreed, but you seem to be saying that because we are likely to be less than 50% to win the pot? I might be misunderstanding you most here, but this is not a good reason to fold. To be clear I am not saying this is anything better than a flip, it isn"t, it"s just a flip we should probably be taking.

If we call and win we have 86901 chips if we fold we have 59617 chips so what we have to ask ourselves is will we get from around 60K in chips to around 87K in chips more than 47% of the time. I doubt very much our edge is that good in this tournament, if we keep folding spots like this the blinds will catch up with us and we will end up having to shove our stack and probably end up in no better situation odds wise. The above logic may be true if we were going to be able to play a lot of flops but that is not possible at this stage of a tournament and you have to find good spots preflop.

The more I look at this, the more clear a call seems. If we were a lot deeper and his bet was not a shove, reverse implied odds might make it a fold. Here we are all in so this is not a consideration.

Also the risk/reward factor is good, we are not risking 16.64 Blind to win 1.8 we are risking it to win 20.8.

Question for Brian, if you knew he had had AT before you called would you still call?

[TheSnapper]

Needed to spend some time with a response to this. I"m pretty sure that ALL of my posts in this section entail a whole lot more than "fist pump call" though ;-)

Just spotted this, they certainly do Steve, your posts itt as always are well reasoned and well written.

[TheSnapper]

Again, its super close this one and I'm not saying categorically that folding is best, to try and generate some discussion I have taken to put the case for the fold camp.

It"s a big bet to call off with KQs, and his range of mostly made up of Ax and smaller pairs, agreed, but you seem to be saying that because we are likely to be less than 50% to win the pot? I might be misunderstanding you most here, but this is not a good reason to fold. To be clear I am not saying this is anything better than a flip, it isn"t, it"s just a flip we should probably be taking.

50% of is range is Ax  = 50% of the time we have 42% equity and theres the risk reward aspect.

If we call and win we have 86901 chips if we fold we have 59617 chips so what we have to ask ourselves is will we get from around 60K in chips to around 87K in chips more than 47% of the time. I doubt very much our edge is that good in this tournament, if we keep folding spots like this the blinds will catch up with us and we will end up having to shove our stack and probably end up in no better situation odds wise. The above logic may be true if we were going to be able to play a lot of flops but that is not possible at this stage of a tournament and you have to find good spots preflop.

Good point, the thing is though, the chips we win are worth a lot less than the chips we lose.

Also the risk/reward factor is good, we are not risking 16.64 Blind to win 1.8 we are risking it to win 20.8.

Our EV is + 1.8 bigs so our average return for our 16.64 bb stake is 1.8 bb"s. Meh possibly a very negative way to view it.

[Erimus]

Question for Brian, if you knew he had had AT before you called would you still call?


Sorry for late reply Steve,if i can see the cards in this particular mtt and with the chipstacks i call, as i said earlier
i wanted a stack to go for the win. I was always calling big blinds shove but if small blind had reshoved prob fold.

I have been doing ok in mtts getting deepish but it has only been with 15 to 20 bigs this was an opportunuty to get a big stack and go for the win, too many min cashes and the like at the minute, gotta start winning flips and not quite flips, in this instance a hit to stack was not terminal.

As an aside kq hasnt been to good for me lately last 3 final tables they have been my nemisis including todays effort, 50p in the tin.

Folding KQ for a week or so, best not to get involved

Thanks for the input by the way.

[AAroddersAA]

Again, its super close this one and I'm not saying categorically that folding is best, to try and generate some discussion I have taken to put the case for the fold camp.

Yeah, it"s super close and your case is a good one. A couple of good points in the last post that I had not really thought of, mainly the fact the chips we win are worth less than the ones we lose, I am bad at ICM calculations. That is a very good point and makes the decision even closer than I thought. Probably still calling but might fold some days depending on how I am feeling *lol*

I certainly don"t hate folding here either fwiw. Still think calling is fine as well though.

[mal666]

We are too far out to worry about icm, use cev here.

[WYoung83]

Would it be right to think ICM only really matters on the final table