Bad players making bad calls - A question??

[evilpie]

I seem to be having a problem recently where I keep losing hands to what I consider to be bad calls and I"ve got a question about it.

I want people to know that this isn"t a moan about "bad" players because they"ve paid their money the same as me so they can do what they want with their chips. Obviously long term if you"re up against bad calls then statistically you should win anyway so presumably we all like bad players.

The question I"ve got is how many bad players do you have to be up against before the statistics don"t help anyway.

If I shove with AK and get 2 "bad" calls with 2 7 and 3 8 am I still favourite? I know I"m ahead but am I better than 50 50??

Also how many bad calls do I need before my pocket aces become less than 50 50. I"m sure I heard once that with 5 callers your aces are about 25% to hold up (not definite here so please correct me if I"m wrong).

At one of my local clubs I"ve recently lost a few times where people have hit a flop with bad cards and then took my chips when I"ve hit top pair with my AK AQ etc. It"s not like they"re doing a Gus Hansen style any 2 cards because he will follow through with quality play after the flop. These players are just hoping to hit and then get a big pay day.

So there"s the question. How many bad players does it take to completely destroy everything you read in all the poker manuals and turn the game in to a lottery?

[RioRodent]

If I shove with AK and get 2 "bad" calls with 2 7 and 3 8 am I still favourite? I know I"m ahead but am I better than 50 50??

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

 27,541,723  games    30.328 secs   908,128  games/sec

Board:
Dead:  

            equity    win    tie    pots won   pots tied   
Hand 0:    52.515%  52.34%    00.17%    14415669   47784.67   { AsKc }
Hand 1:    21.679%  21.51%    00.17%     5922932    47784.67   { 7c2s }
Hand 2:    25.806%  25.63%    00.17%     7059768    47784.67   { 8s3c }

Also how many bad calls do I need before my pocket aces become less than 50 50. I"m sure I heard once that with 5 callers your aces are about 25% to hold up (not definite here so please correct me if I"m wrong).

Withe 5 callers you drop just below 50/50...

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

901,918  games    21.843 secs    41,290  games/sec

Board:
Dead:  

            equity    win    tie    pots won   pots tied   
Hand 0:    49.132%  48.90%    00.23%    441079     2054.50   { AcAs }
Hand 1:    10.171%  09.55%    00.62%    86152       5585.58   { random }
Hand 2:    10.097%  09.47%    00.63%    85392       5672.17   { random }
Hand 3:    10.221%  09.60%    00.62%    86612       5574.33   { random }
Hand 4:    10.211%  09.60%    00.62%    86543       5553.75   { random }
Hand 5:    10.167%  09.54%    00.63%    86061       5638.67   { random }


AA against 9 callers drops to about 31%

[WarBwastardo]

I seem to be having a problem recently where I keep losing hands to what I consider to be bad calls and I"ve got a question about it.

I want people to know that this isn"t a moan about "bad" players because they"ve paid their money the same as me so they can do what they want with their chips. Obviously long term if you"re up against bad calls then statistically you should win anyway so presumably we all like bad players.

The question I"ve got is how many bad players do you have to be up against before the statistics don"t help anyway.

If I shove with AK and get 2 "bad" calls with 2 7 and 3 8 am I still favourite? I know I"m ahead but am I better than 50 50??

Also how many bad calls do I need before my pocket aces become less than 50 50. I"m sure I heard once that with 5 callers your aces are about 25% to hold up (not definite here so please correct me if I"m wrong).

At one of my local clubs I"ve recently lost a few times where people have hit a flop with bad cards and then took my chips when I"ve hit top pair with my AK AQ etc. It"s not like they"re doing a Gus Hansen style any 2 cards because he will follow through with quality play after the flop. These players are just hoping to hit and then get a big pay day.

So there"s the question. How many bad players does it take to completely destroy everything you read in all the poker manuals and turn the game in to a lottery?

Generally you want to be heads-up when you"re holding a big pair.  Once you see a flop with more than one opponent you have to be prepared to ditch your aces or your big pair if the action gets a little fruity.

[evilpie]

AA against 9 callers drops to about 31%

Aces are good then??  

Thanks for the info. Wasn"t aware of this odds calculator. I"ve only seen the 2 handed ones so this is brilliant.

What about kings? I promise this is the last one. I"ll download it myself when I get home so won"t have to bother you again.

Thanks again  

[StuartHopkin]

I think your missing the point mr pie!

You have your serious poker night on a friday night at DTD.

Wednesday night at Gala isnt about good and bad calls, its just about shouting "ALL OF IT" "HUUUUH" "HAND FOR HAND", people making horrendous smells and clearing whole tables and of course the mandatory arguments to see who can get red carded and stand outside for ten minutes!  

And dont forget those lovely people who will call you all the way when theyre middle pinning!

[RioRodent]

AA against 9 callers drops to about 31%

Aces are good then??  

Well not necessarily... the numbers above were for AA against Random hands.

If we assume that people calling have some sort of a hand, i.e. a couple of AKs (vastly reducing your odds of improving) add a few pocket pairs and a 45 suited for good measure... Taxi for Mr Pie!!

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

 12,927,248  games    32.735 secs   394,906  games/sec

Board:
Dead:  

.            equity    win    tie     pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    03.852%  03.42%    00.44%     441570      56404.10   { AcAs }
Hand 1:    01.724%  00.63%    01.09%     81469     141386.60   { AhKc }
Hand 2:    01.605%  00.51%    01.09%     66126     141386.60   { AdKs }
Hand 3:    22.028%  22.03%    00.00%     2847595        12.10   { QdQh }
Hand 4:    16.781%  16.78%    00.00%     2169250        12.10   { JcJh }
Hand 5:    13.240%  13.24%    00.00%     1711494        12.10   { TcTh }
Hand 6:    10.215%  10.21%    00.00%     1320494        12.10   { 9h9s }
Hand 7:    08.168%  08.17%    00.00%     1055906        12.10   { 8d8s }
Hand 8:    14.758%  14.76%    00.00%     1907818        12.10   { 5d4d }
Hand 9:    07.629%  07.63%    00.00%     986265            12.10   { 7c7s }

[evilpie]

Right..... QQ it is then.....

I"m off to my serious game at DTD now to do some serious damage with my queens.

Expect bad beat stories tomorrow Mr Rodent if they get cracked by some bloody fish with a pair of aces

Seriously though it all makes interesting reading seeing the real stats. It was worth the post just to find out where the software is.

Cheers

[evilpie]

Hmmm seems the queens are good like the stats say. Had a pair of kings cracked by them last night on the bubble trying to knock out the short stack!!

Then on final table when I get QQ they get beaten by short stack"s 44!! You didn"t put that in the calculation did you!!! If I"d known how superior 44 is I"d have folded

[foxy78]

This topic got me so angry recently.
I was playing a poker game & down to final 6 players & also the bubble, I look to see ts tc and immediately push. I get 2 callers which im happy about(at that moment) the flop comes 3 rags but 1 diamond included, guy in position makes a big raise which see"s the other guy fold. that gives me a better chance as not many hands can beat me. so on the turn comes another rag diamond & also a diamond on the river....................he immediately turns   & i throw my  ts tc at him.

When you are at the last 6 of a tournie you expect it to be good players remaining.
I spent 2 hours after that complaining to any person who would listen

[RioRodent]

This topic got me so angry recently.
I was playing a poker game & down to final 6 players & also the bubble, I look to see ts tc and immediately push. I get 2 callers which im happy about(at that moment) the flop comes 3 rags but 1 diamond included, guy in position makes a big raise which see"s the other guy fold. that gives me a better chance as not many hands can beat me. so on the turn comes another rag diamond & also a diamond on the river....................he immediately turns   & i throw my  ts tc at him.

When you are at the last 6 of a tournie you expect it to be good players remaining.
I spent 2 hours after that complaining to any person who would listen

Without more info on relative stack sizes and blinds, it"s impossible to say whether the push with TT is a good move or not. But if we assume you are getting desperately short-stacked (I can see no other reason to push with TT), then I just have the following comments -

Why did you feel the need to throw your cards at the this other player?? If you are going to make a fool move like pushing with tens, from what would appear to be early position, surely you should be grateful to him for calling with two-undercards and betting the other guy out on the flop with no hand!!! You should have just stood up, shook his hand and said, "Nice hand."

Why would you be happy to get 2 callers? By my reckoning, If I"m not behind to a bigger pair then I would have to expect to be against probably 3 over-cards... either way TT is not favourtie to win. Of course this is dependant on how many chips you have... if you are really short, then 97s is a perfectly respectable calling hand from someone with lots of chips.

[StuartHopkin]

I dont think this is really what the thread was about! It was a question of how the odds change when you get lots of, shall we say, "dubious" calls. Not at what point should you throw your chair at someone.

I know its hard sometimes, but these are the plays you want against you. No runner runner and you triple up. Those times that it all goes wrong you have to shake the mans hand and walk away, throwin cards and moaning gets you no where.

I have to agree with Rio"s point to. It sounds like you were short stacked, or you shouldnt have been pushing with 10 10. And if you were short enough to have to push then people are going to call with anything to knock you out. If you werent the short stack and decided to push with 10 10 on the bubble your asking for trouble because in theory if anyone calls the best you can hope for is a race.

A few more details and we might be able to give you some useful pointers. As it is my best advice is get used to seeing your hands busted by rubbish left right and centre, its all part of the fun.

[WarBwastardo]

This topic got me so angry recently.
I was playing a poker game & down to final 6 players & also the bubble, I look to see ts tc and immediately push. I get 2 callers which im happy about(at that moment) the flop comes 3 rags but 1 diamond included, guy in position makes a big raise which see"s the other guy fold. that gives me a better chance as not many hands can beat me. so on the turn comes another rag diamond & also a diamond on the river....................he immediately turns   & i throw my  ts tc at him.

When you are at the last 6 of a tournie you expect it to be good players remaining.
I spent 2 hours after that complaining to any person who would listen

Depending on stack sizes the 9d7d can be a perfectly legitimate calling hand.  He can put you on Ace King for example, which is a shove-able hand when you"re getting short or even if you"ve got a big pair suited connectors are good hands to have to bust them.

You don"t really want two callers when you"re holding any pair.  Ideally you want to be heads-up - once the two players called you can"t feel too secure, so from that point (especially as your pair is only tens) if you lose you lose. 

Throwing your cards at him was probably something you regret now, but it"s worth remembering in the future this is exactly the situation you want, you just got unlucky.   The guy appears to have given you protection with no hand.

You had a great chance to treble through with the guy needing runner runner to beat you?  Perfect.  It just didn"t go your way.