Ugly Situation - What would you do here?

[AMRN]

After a couple of good weeks and some real positive upside in my bankroll playing 0.5/1 NL and occasional 1/2 NL, plus a good payout from an MTT, and a some success at STTs, I decided to have a bit of fun and overstep my usual bankroll allowance by making a max buy in to a 2/4 NL table... $400 was around 10% of my current bankroll, whereas I would normally never play with more than 5% in a cash game.

In the third hand I caught a monster with quads v full house and moved my stack up to $700.

Decision 1: should I stay or should I go?   $300 profit represented nearly 7% of my bankroll - should I have taken it off the table and gone to bed happy? Or should I continue with my experiment and freeroll a little with the profit?

The greedy bugger in me opted to stay.....  I hovered around the $700 mark for about an hour when the following hand happened.

6 seat table $2/$4 NL, $400 max buy in.  I have $700, Fred has $900, 4 others each have between £300 and $400. Table is running Semi Loose at around 22% Average VPIP, and Fred is around 28%.

I"m UTG and have  :as: ks and raise to $12. Fred reraises from button to $40 - this is a fairly typical move for him from button and I have him on quite a wide range here, so I call hoping for a favourable flop.

Flop is  ac kc which seems as good as I could hope for. Pot is $86 and I bet out $28 to find out where I am - Fred calls.  I suspect he has either a weaker Ace, or a flush draw.

Turn is   .... The pot is now $142, and I decide that is big enough to warrant taking it down now and pushing him off his potential flush draw, so raise the whole value of the pot - $142.  He runs his time down before moving all in (he has me covered).

Decision 2: I have already invested $210 (although that should be immaterial), and am being asked to call the $500 I have left to win the $784 on the table.

What would you do?

[tumblet]

Im folding (because im a nit  ), he has hit his set... ur still $90 up..

[HaworthBantam]

Being a tight wadge, I wouldn"t have been at the table to experience this hand - I"d have said "Thank you", and left shortly after taking my stack up to $700.

However, if I was there, the word "trips" would be screaming at me, shortly followed by the word "fold".

As Scouse has said, you"re still up on the session.

[Mikeyboy9361]

Wow! I too would not be sat at the table after that earlier win, but still being there and still being in pocket the Yorkshire man in me would say fold and get out of there, but the gambler would be saying call. I agree though, that you are probably up against trip , and the correct decision would be to lay it down.

[kinboshi]

If losing your entire stack is an issue (i.e. you"re worried about it), then you should leave the table.  Never play scared.  I"ve done it, and it"s definitely -EV.

As for the hand itself, I don"t like the $28 bet on the flop.  It gives him the odds to make the correct call with a range of calling hands.  You"re ahead here, so the $28 bet only makes sense to me if you want him to re-raise you with an inferior hand.  I"d have bet more than half the pot, probably around 3/4 of the pot here (which I"d also do as a continuation bet if I hadn"t hit some of the time).

The 4 on the turn isn"t a scary card.  So unless he was ahead on the flop, you still have the best hand (he might also have 44, but that"s just bad luck). 

Why the pot-sized bet now, but not on the flop?

His push is a good move.  What can you call him with.  Not the flush draw.  You need a set or top two pair here to make the call, and that"s what you have.  I"d make a crying call here most probably (and lets see an ace on the river), but would have much rather been the one shoving on the turn after a decent-sized flop bet.  Has he done this sort of thing before, calling the flop and then shoving to a bet on the turn?  If it"s in his armoury of regular plays, then it means less and he might be doing it with less of a hand.

I wouldn"t consider the session too much.  This is cash.  Best to look at it as one long game that lasts forever (until you stop playing).  Unlike a tournament, where you are in the session really shouldn"t come into it (although of course it does affect all of us).  Make the +EV move regardless of what has gone before and what will happen later.

[hi_am_chris]

bet on the flop looks weak which could encourage him to float the flop and make a move on the turn. He could also have a big ace, is there enough info to give him credit for a set or is he just sensing weakness?

[WarBwastardo]

bet on the flop looks weak which could encourage him to float the flop and make a move on the turn. He could also have a big ace, is there enough info to give him credit for a set or is he just sensing weakness?

Agreed..I think he"s just sensed weakness in your betting and is putting you to a decision with his much healthier bankroll.  What did you do?  Whatever you would have done at your usual stakes level should be your decision here.

Lesson I learned at DTD this weekend, if you can"t comfortably afford to play you"re better off waiting until you can.

[evilpie]

The question I would have to ask is what would you do if all the figures you mention were only one tenth of what they actually were?

If the blinds were 25c/50c, you started with $40, your call was going to cost $50 etc.. etc... would you be calling?

If the answer is yes then really you have to call. The situation has only been made so difficult because of the higher stakes and I suspect that Fred is using this to his advantage because he isn"t quite so bothered about the size of the pot.

If you have to alter your game when the stakes go up then maybe you should go back to where you are comfortable. You just can"t afford to change your game purely based on how much it"s costing to call.

I"m not trying to be condescending here because believe me I wouldn"t be there in the first place for exactly this reason. I"ve tried stepping up a level before and all of a sudden my sharkscope rating drops from shark/bomb to tame fish as I"m completely out of my depth   When these cash games start to get scary they get a bit much for me.

All that said, you went in with $400 and were obviously prepared to lose it so I"d stick with the initial thought of weaker ace (possibly A7) say what the hell and call him...

Then be ready to post on here when it all goes wrong  

Hope it went well.......

[tumblet]

If losing your entire stack is an issue (i.e. you"re worried about it), then you should leave the table.  Never play scared.  I"ve done it, and it"s definitely -EV.

As for the hand itself, I don"t like the $28 bet on the flop.  It gives him the odds to make the correct call with a range of calling hands.  You"re ahead here, so the $28 bet only makes sense to me if you want him to re-raise you with an inferior hand.  I"d have bet more than half the pot, probably around 3/4 of the pot here (which I"d also do as a continuation bet if I hadn"t hit some of the time).

The 4 on the turn isn"t a scary card.  So unless he was ahead on the flop, you still have the best hand (he might also have 44, but that"s just bad luck). 

Why the pot-sized bet now, but not on the flop?

His push is a good move.  What can you call him with.  Not the flush draw.  You need a set or top two pair here to make the call, and that"s what you have.  I"d make a crying call here most probably (and lets see an ace on the river), but would have much rather been the one shoving on the turn after a decent-sized flop bet.  Has he done this sort of thing before, calling the flop and then shoving to a bet on the turn?  If it"s in his armoury of regular plays, then it means less and he might be doing it with less of a hand.

I wouldn"t consider the session too much.  This is cash.  Best to look at it as one long game that lasts forever (until you stop playing).  Unlike a tournament, where you are in the session really shouldn"t come into it (although of course it does affect all of us).  Make the +EV move regardless of what has gone before and what will happen later.

Good post Dan..

[Departed]

This is a very interesting situation (so much so that it has sparked me into submitting my first post!)

I agree what people have been saying above, especially Kinboshi"s point about the flop bet. I think this is the key issue, and where the opponent (Fred) took the advantage.

From Fred"s point of view, ignoring what his cards actually are, this is how I see it:
Fred raises in position - you flat call out of position. Fred is going to like this. [I"m not going to go into the flat call OOP too much as I think it"s an ok play every now and again, although personally I would prefer to reraise].

The small bet on the flop I think indicates to Fred the following:
a) you have a made hand and possibly want to be reraised or
b) you have nothing much and just want to put out a weak probe.

I think Fred is calling here to try take the hand away in later streets.

Now you go from betting 1/3 pot on the flop to betting the whole pot on the turn after a brick card.
This I think tells Fred the following:
He can rule out (b) above, and so you did have a made hand, and now want to protect it by taking away drawing odds.
This would indicate to me that your hand is no monster, and you just want to "end it" now or maybe get some value out of an opponent"s weak ace.

Fred sees this as the opportunity to take you off the hand, as he now has big fold equity when he comes over the top. Disregarding what card he acually has - if he has now put you on a moderate holding (TPTK or A7 would be fairly high up his list I would imagine), then there is a strong chance you will fold to his shove. From the way Fred has played this his hand could be nothing, set, flush draw, weak ace.
But you don"t really know so he figures you can"t make the call.

So overall, I think Fred has played this well.

What should you actually do then - I think although you are ahead of lots of hands he could hold, you are also behind quite a few hands as well. So for me this would be a fold, and next time I would either reraise preflop, or put him to a bigger test on the flop by coming in at 3/4 pot.

Extra info:
It would be good to know what kind of aggression factor Fred has post flop as well. ie is his flop call out of the ordinary and possibly indicating a stronger hand than normal (set), or does he float a lot, so his hand range is very wide.

I"d be interested to hear if people agree/disagree with my reasoning on this.

[kinboshi]

Welcome Departed (that sounds wrong ) - and great first post.

You"ll soon find that agreeing with me isn"t usually a positive thing (I generally talk a lot of nonsense)!  

Agree with most of your post, but not sure about folding here.  I guess the way the hand was played out makes it a close decision here but even without the fold equity, I still think my money"s going in.

AMRN is a decent player, so I"m looking forward to his rationale behind the hand.  

[George2Loose]

I agree with Dan- you have to make this call.

77 is definately in his range but I think AQ Aj etc are in yoru range when you flat him pre flop and he knows he can represent AK.

This is what happens when you play above your roll! Take the chance to spin it up- if you lose you"ve taken your shot and were just unlucky on this occasion.

Personally I"d have stayed sat down as long as the stack sizes were favourable- as soon as someone had more than me I would leave the table and be happy with the profit.

But then again I manage my bankroll like the gambler I am!

[aciesielski]

I"m a caller here, but i"m also a bad cash game player.

[AMRN]

AMRN is a decent player, so I"m looking forward to his rationale behind the hand. 

LOL - you must have me confused with someone else Dan!!

OK so here"s what happened, and why I took the actions I did. glad to see that some of you would have done the same thing here.

Firstly, the level of play and value of stack was not a problem - I never play cash games in fear of my stack, and am fully aware that I could bust in one hand. So, my actions and decisions are never influenced by the value of chips I might lose.

When he re-raised from the button, I considered three betting, but was worried about what would happen if he called and I missed the flop, only to then be raised on the flop.... or if he subsequently re-re-raised preflop..... after all, I only had Ace high. At least by just calling, I was able to see a flop, and if it was nasty I could get away cheaply - I was more than prepared to check-fold if I missed the flop and wait for a better time in position. I was also prepared to go large if I hit the flop hard.

AK7 was the perfect flop, although I didn"t like the two clubs. I was totally convinced I was ahead now. The chances of him having AA or KK were slim given that I could see two aces and two kings. 77 was a marginal possibility...

I led out with a very small bet to try and look weak and to induce a reraise.  If he had QQ/JJ he might think he could take me off the pot here...

When he flat called, I convinced myself he had either a weaker ace - say AQ/AJ, or that he had a flush draw - perhaps QJ clubs. I was still sure I was ahead.

The pot bet on the turn was to try and make the pot large enough that I would be able to get all in on the river and still be called by AQ/AJ.... and also to make him pay if he had a flush draw. I was prepared to fold on the river if a third club came.

When he moved all in, I was absolutely sure he had AQ, AK, or flush draw..... I was ahead at best, or splitting at worst. I couldn"t believe he would have made this play if he had just hit a set of fours..............

So............ I CALLED, and he flipped...... 77

Experiment over for now - back to 0.50/1 with forays into 1/2. Busting 5% of bankroll is hard enough, but 10% in one hand was just plain hurtful.   But hey, it was effectively freeroll - so not too bad.

See you in Estonia at 8pm....

[tumblet]

UL...

Good reasoning behind your actions, and imo nothing wrong with your thinking.. im suprised he pushed all in at that stage, i would have thought he would try and keep you there, but he got the call he wanted..

Good hread..