This tested me a little...

[johnyweeks11]

£20 double chance at the G casino Stockton last night.

Start with 5k, with the option to take a free 5k at any point, re-entry available.
44 Runners, 10 re-entries.

In this particular hand, there are 2 tables remaining, 14 players, blinds are 800 - 1600 150 Ante. I start the hand with around 22k in the SB.

In the BB is an oldish chap, very quiet, sat with about 40k, has limped a couple of pots, but blinds and antes are proving to reduce his stack after time. Not a lot of information on him, he hasn"t made any significant moves that i"ve taken note off. Guy on the button is drunk, talking ****, limping a lot, but generally gets scared if someone raises him.

Cards are dealt, and action folds around to me, i look down at KJ off, and opt to make up. (i did initially think about raising, it passed through me, but wanted to keep a controlled pot. i was kind of expecting him to defend with him having very little action)

He checked his option, the flop came  

I bet 2.5k into around a 3.4k pot, he called. (my thoughts are this point, was that im pretty much ahead, and most of the time i have the best hand)

Turn card  

I continue to bet 4.5k into a 8.5k ish pot. he called. (at this point im kind of expecting him to make some kind of move on the river, whatever i choose to do, but was prepared to bet 3rd street)

River  

I was pretty happy with this card, no real danger out there, the only thing that was going through my mind was 2 pair.

I continue to value bet my K with 6.5k, leaving myself with about 8k behind going into button position, if i was to be beat.

He immediatly re popped me 8k more, leaving me with about 1k if i was to call.

What next?

(all of the numbers are rough estimates as i cant remember exactly what chip counts were. will appreciate opinions on my thought processes, and if you can help me in anyway)

will post outcome after some responses.

[Swinebag]

Firstly this is a standard shove pre. You only have 14bigs at the start and have no room for post flop play.

As played you have top pair and most of your stack in the pot. I"d sigh call it off then kick myself for not shoving pre.

[hi_am_chris]

Rob what hands would you open raise rather than shove? No need to shove everything in this spot in this type of tournament, not gonna be a lot of players noticing that your only shoving certain hands here

[Swinebag]

Rob what hands would you open raise rather than shove? No need to shove everything in this spot in this type of tournament, not gonna be a lot of players noticing that your only shoving certain hands here

I suppose given this read, I would open raise AA-QQ but would still shove the rest

[WYoung83]

Problem cause by limping. Even folding is better than limping with 14 bbs imo. Cant fold now.

[noble1]

Firstly this is a standard shove pre. You only have 14bigs at the start and have no room for post flop play.

As played you have top pair and most of your stack in the pot. I"d sigh call it off then kick myself for not shoving pre.

firstly, if you are not sure why Rob prefers to shove in this spot then ask why and he"ll explain the maths behind it...

secondly, on your post flop play, with yourself being out of position after being called on the flop and turn, the river bet for thin value [you have no idea where you are in the hand] would be better on a different board texture, eg - the flop had a draw on it and the opponent would call with worse as he could put you on a missed draw OR you whiffed the flop but bet out and got called but you hit your jack or king on the turn or river, your bluff hand suddenly becomes a hand of value on a later street which allows you to still get called by worse...
logically if you suspect your opponent will make a move on the river there will be a far greater chance of him doing it if you check rather than betting out.. [especially leaving next to nothing of a stack behind]

i hope the above makes sense

[Swinebag]

Thanks noble for putting me in a maths spot  

here goes though

This is for shoving 57o in this spot (so assume KJo is even more profitable)

Assuming villain calls 10% of his hands (88+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo)) then we win the blinds and antes (2650) 90% of the time.

If we do get called we have 29% chance against this range to win 22K + the antes (23050 altogether), losing the other 71% of the time

so we win:

0.9 x 2650 + 0.1 x 0.29 x 23050 = 3050

and lose only

0.1 x 0.71 x 22000 = 1562

This makes 57o a profitable shove here. If we get called by the top 20% (66+,A4s+,K8s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo) it is not quite as profitable but it is still profitable!


In addition, I agree with noble that if you think that villain is likely to "make a move" on the river, then he is more likely to do it when checked to.

If I am being honest, my instinct tells me you are beaten at this point, but I just can"t bear to fold top pair with most of my stack in the pot and only 5BBs behind.

The reason this hand puzzled you was because you played a 14BB stack like it was 140BBs. Decisions at this stage should be relatively straightforward push/fold ones.

[pokerpops]

Thanks noble for putting me in a maths spot  

here goes though

This is for shoving 57o in this spot (so assume KJo is even more profitable)

Assuming villain calls 10% of his hands (88+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo)) then we win the blinds and antes (2650) 90% of the time.

If we do get called we have 29% chance against this range to win 22K + the antes (23050 altogether), losing the other 71% of the time

so we win:

0.9 x 2650 + 0.1 x 0.29 x 23050 = 3050

and lose only

0.1 x 0.71 x 22000 = 1562

This makes 57o a profitable shove here. If we get called by the top 20% (66+,A4s+,K8s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo) it is not quite as profitable but it is still profitable!


In addition, I agree with noble that if you think that villain is likely to "make a move" on the river, then he is more likely to do it when checked to.

If I am being honest, my instinct tells me you are beaten at this point, but I just can"t bear to fold top pair with most of my stack in the pot and only 5BBs behind.

The reason this hand puzzled you was because you played a 14BB stack like it was 140BBs. Decisions at this stage should be relatively straightforward push/fold ones.

Playing at the G vs many of the regulars the range for calling is unlikely to include many Qhigh or Jhigh hands. (there are exceptions to this!)
Which means that shoving KJ here is even more profitable

As played - too late for regrets, shove the lot in and hope he has no better than two pair to leave you with some outs.

[deanp27]

In local casino style tournaments where stacks are super shallow most players have huge preflop leaks and an aggressive preflop strategy is the way to go with <15bbs. This is a slam dunk jam pre with antes in play.

As played you have tried to trap and flopped top pair, I have missed all the maths posts but using normal principles bet/folding turn and or river seems good unless villain massively overvalues weak top pair type hands. But getting into this spot seems kind of unnecessary. I"d be tempted to c/jam the flop against some opponents.

[CUFCrp]

Hi, heres my view on the hand.

Firstly as a blind-on-blind confrontation you have approx 15BB"s, which with 2 tables left, and I"m guessing/assuming half of the final table get paid, would be getting tight. A snap shove preflop takes the pot almost for certain.

Postflop you"re out of position, which really hamstrings any attempt at aggression you might make. Postflop your only real options are to open jam, at latest by the turn.

One question to you is, if you"re expecting him to make a play back at you on the river why are you prepared to fire a third bullet anyway? If you think you"re behind check/fold.

Having fired 2 bullets and failing to shove the river looks quite weak, and it seems your opponent is a weakish typical drunk casino patron anyway, sounds like he"s got some sort of two pair, my guess Q6.

[johnyweeks11]

Sorry for the delay guys, i tanked for about 10 mins, and decided i played the hand pretty badly and called the 8k, i instantly mucked and said "nice call".

I badgered him to tell me what he had but he wouldn"t tell me.

Thoughts in his decisions through the hand made sense after, i tbh i put him in a great spot to make that play.

...

[pokerpops]

Sorry for the delay guys, i tanked for about 10 mins, and decided i played the hand pretty badly and called the 8k, i instantly mucked and said "nice call".

I badgered him to tell me what he had but he wouldn"t tell me.

Thoughts in his decisions through the hand made sense after, i tbh i put him in a great spot to make that play.

...

Do you play other nights at G? Say hi next time you"re in on a Sunday or Tuesday. Or if you"re there for the £100 on Saturday.

You tanked for 10 minutes?
Seriously?
With blinds playing no more than 30minutes, and probably only 20, you tanked for 10 minutes?
In a £20 tourney?

[deanp27]

I presume he instantly mucked and not you lol

[Swinebag]

tanking 10 mins is pretty poor IMO. Can"t believe the clock wasn"t called

[WYoung83]

My biggest hate of live poker, when someone takes longer than a few minutes in a tourny.