An ICM calculator for >10 players? Awesome, thanks noble. I hope it"s reliable, will certainly have a play with it., but looks horrible to use
As for this hand. Probably a pass vs an UTG shove on the bubble. This is clearly a cEV spot, but probably -$EV.
Steve - A manual ICM calc for 20 players would be an absolute pig, I don"t know how ICMIZER does it (or not - it crashes for me too). It will have 19! combinations - that"s 19 factorial (1x2x3x4x...18x19), not a typo of 191.
Brendan - your post calculating $ equity isn"t quite right, but the underlying point is (as in you"ll need greater equity to make a call near/on the bubble).
Basically, in this case. Steve"s $ equity is the probability of him finishing in each position multiplied by the payout for each position. ICM always assumes equal skill levels, it"s a calculation based purely on the stack sizes of each player left in the tournament and the payout structure.
So the probability of Steve (we"ll call him player A) winning, or P(A=1st) = his proportion of the chips in play = 10368/270000 = 0.0384 or 3.84%
In $ terms this is 0.0384 x 1st place ($123.19) = $4.73
P(A=2nd) = P(BA) + P(CA) + P(DA) + P(EA) + ... + P(TA)
So simple enough to calculate 1st. But then to calculate Steve coming second, you need the individual probability of each individual winning,
and then Steve beating the remainder of the field. So that"s 19 calculations just to get the probability of finishing second. For 3rd that becomes 342 calculations and 5,814 for 4th place, and so on.
Get to the end, add the lot together, and you reach the correct $ equity figure. I once found a pdf doing a manual calculation for 4 players which really helped my understanding. I"ll try and dig it out.
Anyone wants to build a piece of software to do this, please let me know!