Calling turn because you"ve called flop as "nothing has changed" is flawed thinking. A lot has changed. Poker is a game played through the streets and by calling the flop we have one more street of info.
We now have a situation where we have two all in"s and imo someone has an 8 which doesn"t leave us very many outs- granted there is a helluva lot of money in the pot and ingame I might sigh call (which by the way I think is an understandable mistake) but I would still fold here knowing most of the time I"m beat. Someone who is better than me at the maths (noble1 maybe) can probs do some sums. It"s probs close between and call/fold but I"m calling due to the maths, not because I called flop therefore I should call turn
A call can be ok if you have a solid read that one or both opponents are drawing and pot committed on the turn. You can then flat and get it in on a non-spade turn. You still get the same value, but save chips if you fall behind.
Of course you have the As, so your read would need to be perfect - and I don"t think it can be in this spot. Turn decision would be marginal given you"d have up to 9 outs.
Back to the hand. Nothing has changed, a fold here is dreadful given your flop call.
ok some food for thought
if villain2"s 3bet flat range ip looks something like this - JJ-66,AQs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,AKo 5.4% [49 combos] don"t worry to much as you can widen and narrow as much as you like and still come to roughly the same conclusions...
on a flop of
what will he likely fold given the action pre and post and he"s not some kind of NUTTER? 66 77 99 TT AQs AKs JTs AKo
and continues given the action with - JJ,88,T9s,98s,87s
villain1"s min re-raise of our cbet on the flop maybe - JJ+,88,QsTs,Ts9s,98s,87s
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.834% 53.60% 01.23% 119068 2739.50 { JJ, 88, T9s, 98s, 87s }
Hand 1:
21.133% 20.65% 00.48% 45871 1074.50 {
AhAs }
Hand 2: 24.032% 22.32% 01.72% 49571 3814.00 { JJ+, 88, QsTs, Ts9s, 98s, 87s }
but we call the re-raise, what will our equity look like on various non spade cards?
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.949% 55.74% 01.21% 5759 125.00 { JJ, 88, T9s, 98s, 87s }
Hand 1:
20.374% 19.74% 00.63% 2040 65.00 {
AhAs }
Hand 2: 22.677% 20.84% 01.84% 2153 190.00 { JJ+, 88, QsTs, Ts9s, 98s, 87s }
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.966% 56.77% 01.20% 5865 124.00 { JJ, 88, T9s, 98s, 87s }
Hand 1:
19.590% 18.99% 00.60% 1962 62.00 {
AhAs }
Hand 2: 22.445% 20.64% 01.80% 2133 186.00 { JJ+, 88, QsTs, Ts9s, 98s, 87s }
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 74.424% 73.30% 01.12% 6681 102.00 { JJ, 88, T9s, 98s, 87s }
Hand 1:
05.223% 05.18% 00.04% 472 4.00 {
AhAs }
Hand 2: 20.353% 19.19% 01.16% 1749 106.00 { JJ+, 88, QsTs, Ts9s, 98s, 87s }
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.660% 59.83% 01.83% 5629 172.00 { JJ, 88, T9s, 98s, 87s }
Hand 1:
15.742% 15.26% 00.48% 1436 45.00 {
AhAs }
Hand 2: 22.598% 20.29% 02.31% 1909 217.00 { JJ+, 88, QsTs, Ts9s, 98s, 87s }
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.231% 55.96% 02.27% 4936 200.00 { JJ, 88, T9s, 98s, 87s }
Hand 1:
04.739% 04.69% 00.05% 414 4.00 {
AhAs }
Hand 2: 37.029% 34.72% 02.31% 3062 204.00 { JJ+, 88, QsTs, Ts9s, 98s, 87s }
how about a spade turn?
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.581% 52.67% 00.91% 5442 94.00 { JJ, 88, T9s, 98s, 87s }
Hand 1:
23.156% 22.75% 00.40% 2351 41.50 {
AhAs }
Hand 2: 23.263% 21.95% 01.31% 2268 135.50 { JJ+, 88, QsTs, Ts9s, 98s, 87s }
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 67.083% 66.25% 00.83% 6845 86.00 { JJ, 88, T9s, 98s, 87s }
Hand 1:
09.872% 09.84% 00.03% 1017 3.00 {
AhAs }
Hand 2: 23.045% 22.18% 00.86% 2292 89.00 { JJ+, 88, QsTs, Ts9s, 98s, 87s }
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.586% 53.13% 01.45% 4530 124.00 { JJ, 88, T9s, 98s, 87s }
Hand 1:
23.428% 22.99% 00.44% 1960 37.50 {
AhAs }
Hand 2: 21.986% 20.09% 01.89% 1713 161.50 { JJ+, 88, QsTs, Ts9s, 98s, 87s }
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.872% 52.98% 00.89% 4762 80.00 { JJ, 88, T9s, 98s, 87s }
Hand 1:
19.331% 18.91% 00.42% 1700 37.50 {
AhAs }
Hand 2: 26.797% 25.49% 01.31% 2291 117.50 { JJ+, 88, QsTs, Ts9s, 98s, 87s }
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.087% 51.70% 01.39% 4321 116.00 { JJ, 88, T9s, 98s, 87s }
Hand 1:
09.955% 09.92% 00.04% 829 3.00 {
AhAs }
Hand 2: 36.959% 35.53% 01.42% 2970 119.00 { JJ+, 88, QsTs, Ts9s, 98s, 87s }
by calling virtually every card in the deck bar an ace jack or eight gives you less equity - 7/47 or basically 15% chance of a A J or 8 100-15/15=5.66 to 1 against....
you can put in tptk and whatnot into the villain ranges and allow for some NUTTER play but the reads don"t really indicate pure spew so mainly the maths will still point towards a losing play if you call flop and call or bet turn or check fold turn on various turn cards spade or non spade...
regarding the the chances of trips for two villains/opponents depending on there flat 3bet ranges then with there whole range on the flop you will be facing trips upto approx 16 to 25% of the time, of course after you bet and they flat or re-raise this percentage goes up rather
oop and scratching your bonce, calling the flop re-raise after the action? hmmmm no ta
