"calling pre looks marginal but completely fine; we operate within a probability matrix, we don"t need to know we"re ahead at any point. Calling down a hit to keep his range wide would be the standard plan, but on this specific flop texture I"d probably change plans and jam flop. Jamming removes the nutted hands from our perceived range and our actual hand is at the very top of a reasonable jamming range (meaning we should get called by worse often), so getting it in here looks best. Our actual hand is also extremely vulnerable to a large portion of the deck.
River is pretty meh either way. I don"t think an abort is bad. Sticking with the standard call down line on that flop is gonna get you in this situation a lot."
Alternative view from a player who"s opinion I respect.
I really don't see much value in jamming here tbh, maybe I have villain ranged too tightly? It becomes much easier to be accurate with some read on villain's tendencies to go along with his stats, so a reasonable point not yet made in this thread, having a HUD is not good enough, we still should diligently observe our opponents play, it can reveal very valuable info on their tendencies.
Say villains range for open raising over 2 limpers is..
88+,ATs+,KJs+,QJs,AJo+,KQo ~9% of hands.
Villain is passive right, so is it reasonable to expect that villain only cbets with ....
88+,AsKs,AsQs,AJs,AsTs,KsQs,KJs,QJs,AJo,KJo,QJo, ~55% of his opening range ?? ??
That being the case, what hands do we fold out, most likely 88,TT,QJo,KJo, hands we have dominated.
Even if villain doesn't ever fold we are flipping with 49% equity but most of our equity comes from the 88,TT,QJo,KJo, part of villains range, those hands most likely to fold.
Assuming villain may fold even just 88, not unreasonable???
Now all in for 70+ bb's versus a range of ....
99+,AsKs,AsQs,AJs,AsTs,KsQs,KJs,QJs,AJo,KJo,QJo, we only have 43% equity.
Hardly correct strategy for exploiting a passive player.
Jamming removes the nutted hands from our perceived range and our actual hand is at the very top of a reasonable jamming range (meaning we should get called by worse often)
This is a valid point versus thinking players, but I suspect your average "loose passive" does not think at this level, his calling range is what it is, ie: "I have toppest pair"