No hands at all on my opponent. Think this is pretty standard but one of the leaks I have noticed in my game lately is calling too light on the river. How is the overall line? I know I should have bet the turn but felt I might get raised off it if he had the flush and thought I could call a river bet and get to the end for around the same price against a weaker range.
red bold - some thoughts for you to ponder Rodders
the concept of protection is going to be most important when we have a medium strength hand relative to the board and what we perceive our opponents range to be.......
when our range is protected we can make correct folds more easily because there is a lower chance of being bluffed.... when our range isn't protected we have a dilemma of whether or not we need to avoid folding too much or paying off too much.... [as is in your example]
if you have the opportunity to take a line where you are protected with a medium strength hand, it is often worth taking that line in the long term, especially at this sort of stake...
as you climb through the levels to say 200nl+ then its not necessarily important whether or not our range is actually protected, just whether our opponent perceives it to be....
green bold - maths
with 4 outs to the likely best hand on the turn, if say you bet 65% pot but get to see the river 90% of the time with at worst 9% equity and when you hit on the river you get at least another 65% pot bet called, math wise you"d need about 26% folds on the turn for the bet to break even... [against a slow played flush or set/straight plus
Qx
Xx etc TJ 79s J9s etc]
now i used a tad bit of guesstimating on villains ranges to arrive at the 90% we see the river if we bet the turn, its close Rodders between betting and checking... preference wise i"d favour betting as the hand readless will be easier to continue with...
if i can find a good article explaining the maths i"ll post it on your blog, if not then when i get time i"ll try to explain it as best as i can....
as played i"d call river as your turn check can induce enough spazziness/bluffs imho
go through your tracker base and filter for your turn checks and see what sort of success your river calls have Rodders on various textures...