Flatting with Medium Strength Hands vs Loose Passives

[VBlue]

This is something that has been discussed in the first month of the online training course I am taking.

When in position and facing an opening raise from a loose-passive player, what types of hands are you looking to flat with as opposed to 3-betting? If the opener is 40% VPIP, does this give an indication as to how much of our range we can flat hoping to dominate his range with; i.e. 20%? So, we may go a little lower in our range and include hands like KJ/AT where versus a 20% VPIP we might only include hands as low as KQ/AJ (this is just an example so don"t take those ranges as exact).

Also, are you concerned where there are limpers and a single raiser and do you then try to force a HU situation or are you comfortable playing the same range versus 2 to the flop?

I have been continuing to 3-bet my medium pocket pairs which are trickier to play post-flop, say 77-TT/JJ, and started to try and find spots to flat hands like AJ/AQ/KQ hoping to dominate and stack them when we both make top-pair type hands.

I want to start to include a new stat on my HUD to showing pre-flop raise-call. I have been using the limp-call stat which I have been able to take advantage of where I can continue to raise for value the above hands knowing they will still call off after open-limping.

A hand to illustrate:

IPoker, $5 Buy-in (20/40 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BB: 1,400 (35 bb)
UTG+1: 3,075 (76.9 bb)
UTG+2: 2,885 (72.1 bb)
MP1: 1,950 (48.8 bb)
MP2: 1,285 (32.1 bb)
MP3: 2,280 (57 bb)
CO: 4,610 (115.3 bb)
Hero (BTN): 3,910 (97.8 bb)
SB: 1,460 (36.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with
UTG+1 calls 40, UTG+2 calls 40, 3 folds, CO raises to 220, Hero calls 220, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls 180, UTG+2 folds

Flop: (760) (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, CO bets 570, Hero calls 570, UTG+1 calls 570

Turn: (2,470) (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, CO bets 320, Hero calls 320, UTG+1 calls 320

River: (3,430) (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, CO bets 680

UTG+1 is 39/16/0 over 62 hands. CO is 39/11/4 over 83 hands.

I call the CO raise as I don"t think all the limpers will call and I want to keep his range wide in the hope I dominate it. He has got all-in pre-flop with a standard open and then reshoved over a small stack all-in and flat call behind with AK. He then lost a huge pot to treble me up with KQ when he limped behind and then called my raise and called off on a K high board. I figure he is capable of aggression and looking to take down a pot vs limpers here without having to have a monster hand.

UTG+1 one a crazy pot when he should have shoved pre but called off against 3 or 4 all-ins for varying stacks with TT on a 7 high board. He also helped treble me up in the pot already mentioned with a gutshot and middle pair on Kx9T board with JT the nad prior to this one.

What do you think of the way I play up to the river and what is your move on the river?

[pokerpops]

What"s our second card??

[VBlue]

david - AdJd - it is showing when I view the post.

[mporter123]

Gut instinct is 3bet or fold pre. Given reads - I like the 3bet to 515. I would be happy 3bet folding.

As played I am calling the river given the price but don't like it. Probably has same hand as you or QQ/1010 and is trying to get to showdown cheaply.

May contemplate raising the turn (and calling it off) for value but it's a bit thin given we have UTG in the hand as well.

Good hand to post btw.

[VBlue]

If we 3-bet pre-flop are we potentially giving him the chance to fold hands we beat and 4-bet hands we are beaten by, enabling him to play "perfectly".  If we call instead, can we not keep in his range such as AT/KJ/QJ/JT which we dominate and small-medium PPs that we don"t want to call off against if he gets tasty and shoves?

If we fold is that too weak given our position in the pot and the chances that he is not only raising with AQ/AK/JJ/QQ/KK/AA?

He could, with hindsight, just be looking for a cheap showdown.  The K turn means some straight draws are now possible and he could have QQ and now be concerned he has fallen behind.

River - I am still leaning slightly towards a fold, as we can"t discount the other player in the pot and I think my equity is less than 20% after running some pokerstove calcs (I"m new to using it though).

I felt QQ was most likely.  

[fatpants]

fold pre imo!  If you are going to flat pre, on that flop you have to re-raise, as soon as you dont and utg+1 calls behind and with the k on turn you are crushed most of the time!  You have no idea where you are or what your up against utg+1 has 99 or kqss imo!

[VBlue]

utg+1 folded river.  I think folding pre is just way too nitty against this type of player who can be opening as wide as almost 40% of hands.  We also have the power of position so we can evaluate our opponents reaction to flop, turn, and river.  Players this loose-passive can easily stack off 2nd best hands, as illustrated when I did so previous hand with AK v KQ on K high board, and I raised pre that hand and I think he limp-called.

[TheSnapper]

When in position and facing an opening raise from a loose-passive player, what types of hands are you looking to flat with as opposed to 3-betting? If the opener is 40% VPIP

The sample size is very small (83 hands) but that said pfr and vpip stats can represent as accurate quickly. In this instance you talk about villains vpip which is okay had villain limped, but villain came in for a raise and his pfr of 11% is the pertinent stat in this spot. Moreover, villain has raised over a limper so it"s likely to be a somewhat tighter range. You could refer to his positional stats for an exact pfr for each position, though it"s doubtful villain will be positionally aware it will be very clear when you look at his stats per position.

See image below for an example. (you may need to right click select view image )




What I like to do is have the more detailed stats set to appear as a pop up HUD. In the image above the centre dark hud is the standard visible hud and displays.....

Name of player_____  hands / sample size

VPIP______ PFR_____AGG Factor____3b____fold to 3b

The brighter pop up huds are displayed by hovering over a stat, hover the cursor on PFR for example and we see the pop up (bottom left of image) for his raise per position. These are simple to set up and well worth the effort.

If you wanted a hand setting something up I"d be happy to do a teamviewer session sometime.

Back to the hand.....

Lets assume a reduced raising range of ~ 9% 88+,ATs+,KJs+,QJs,AJo+,KQo,   is not in super shape but you have position versus a weak player, you gave great reasons to not 3b so flatting is spot on.

When villain leads for 3/4"s pot on the flop, do we disregard the "passive" label. Now we are faced with the problem area of playing AJ versus villains range, we need to be able to lose the minimum when we"re beaten, otherwise it very quickly becomes unprofitable to play AJ in these spots. Is a passive player betting 3/4"s pot into two players with any hand you beat?

[Fatcatstu]

I like the re raise on the flop here, our hand is still voulnerabl and i want to give it some protection, if we are way ahead most of the time as we think, then getting rid of the other player in the pot with what could easily be 2 overs is surely preferential?

After just calling the flop, I honestly dont know what i would be doing on the turn. 320 just looks so weak here, that i think i am putting a raise in now, but i dont like it. Seems like we are putting ourself into a spot that we dont need to be in by taking such a passive line?

River i am folding as I litterally have no clue where i am in the hand and cant see myself wanting to throw any more chips after the ones that have already gone with me not knowing where i am.

[fatpants]

ok so folding pre is to nitty for you but once you have hit the flop and they bet into you and you have a player behind what card do you want to see on the turn so you know you are ahead (apart from another j)?  If you flatting pre you need to ask questions on the flop!  Way played you have no idea where you are if you can bet for value of if one of the loose guys has a 9 or a k in there hand which is easy as they have played so loose!  All in all you have no idea where you are in the hand apart from you have position and are bleeding chips imo!

[VBlue]

Thanks for the feedback and particularly TheSnapper and the offer of help with HUDs (I will try and find some time to do this).

I"ll reveal the final play on the hand.  Just gathering some feedback from a few other people first.

Very interesting and differing views - what makes poker the game it is.

[VBlue]

Thanks all.  The consenus seems to be fold pre from all the feedback I have had from other sources.

I folded river as did UTG+1.

Glad to join in and hope to post more and get involved in these types of discussion regularly.  My comment about being too nitty was obv. flawed and it looks like I was giving too little credit based on his opening raise range - I thought due to the limpers in the pot we could look more towards his VPIP rather his PFR stat, but it seems that this is unlikely and he is more likely to raise as tight as he would usually.

[VBlue]

"calling pre looks marginal but completely fine; we operate within a probability matrix, we don"t need to know we"re ahead at any point. Calling down a hit to keep his range wide would be the standard plan, but on this specific flop texture I"d probably change plans and jam flop. Jamming removes the nutted hands from our perceived range and our actual hand is at the very top of a reasonable jamming range (meaning we should get called by worse often), so getting it in here looks best. Our actual hand is also extremely vulnerable to a large portion of the deck.

River is pretty meh either way. I don"t think an abort is bad. Sticking with the standard call down line on that flop is gonna get you in this situation a lot."

Alternative view from a player who"s opinion I respect.

[TheSnapper]

"calling pre looks marginal but completely fine; we operate within a probability matrix, we don"t need to know we"re ahead at any point. Calling down a hit to keep his range wide would be the standard plan, but on this specific flop texture I"d probably change plans and jam flop. Jamming removes the nutted hands from our perceived range and our actual hand is at the very top of a reasonable jamming range (meaning we should get called by worse often), so getting it in here looks best. Our actual hand is also extremely vulnerable to a large portion of the deck.

River is pretty meh either way. I don"t think an abort is bad. Sticking with the standard call down line on that flop is gonna get you in this situation a lot."

Alternative view from a player who"s opinion I respect.

I really don't see much value in jamming here tbh, maybe I have villain ranged too tightly? It becomes much easier to be accurate with some read on villain's tendencies to go along with his stats, so a reasonable point not yet made in this thread, having a HUD is not good enough, we still should diligently observe our opponents play, it can reveal very valuable info on their tendencies.

Say villains range for open raising over 2 limpers is..

88+,ATs+,KJs+,QJs,AJo+,KQo ~9% of hands.

Villain is passive right, so is it reasonable to expect that villain only cbets with ....

88+,AsKs,AsQs,AJs,AsTs,KsQs,KJs,QJs,AJo,KJo,QJo, ~55% of his opening range ?? ??

That being the case, what hands do we fold out, most likely 88,TT,QJo,KJo, hands we have dominated.

Even if villain doesn't ever fold we are flipping with 49% equity but most of our equity comes from the 88,TT,QJo,KJo, part of villains range, those hands most likely to fold.

Assuming villain may fold even just 88, not unreasonable???

Now all in for 70+ bb's versus a range of ....

99+,AsKs,AsQs,AJs,AsTs,KsQs,KJs,QJs,AJo,KJo,QJo, we only have 43% equity.

Hardly correct strategy for exploiting a passive player.

Jamming removes the nutted hands from our perceived range and our actual hand is at the very top of a reasonable jamming range (meaning we should get called by worse often)

This is a valid point versus thinking players, but I suspect your average "loose passive" does not think at this level, his calling range is what it is, ie: "I have toppest pair"