if we bet and they fold, OK we win the hand right here, but we"ve won a small pot with a big hand. Surely that isn"t the agenda when you hit a big flop?
how scared are we/should we be of the 2 hearts?
Your thinking is way off here Waz, take a stab at what range of hands villain defends with preflop?
Why is it way off? I"m asking passively!
Small pair themselves, or + + at worse. Less then AQ tho.
So a range of ..
99-22,AJo-ATo,KQo-KJo,QJo,AJs-ATs,KQs-KJs,QJs, which is a total of 111 combo's allowing for card removal, seems reasonable.
Lets break down how that range hits on the flop of Ah5h3c
55 for a set 3 combo's = 2.7% of villains range
AT & AJ for top pair 24 combos = 21.6% of villains range
66-99 for a pocket pair facing one overcard 24 combos= 21.6% of villains range
22 & 44 for a weak pair and gutshot 12 combos = 10.8% of villains range
QJhh, KJhh & KQhh for a flushdraw 3 combos = 2.7% of villains range
That's a total of 63 combos or a massive 56.7% of villains range that we beat and can reasonably expect to call a flop bet.
55 is a cooler and we will inevitably lose a big pot to that 2.7% of villains range but hey some spots play themselves.
The part of villains range you seem to want to target is......
QJ, KJ & KQ that are not suited and hearts, that is 48 combos = 43.2% of villains range.
Villain will check raise bluff with these hands >0% of the time when we cbet so they do constitute some value.
So that leaves the times we check back the flop so we can extract a single bet when these hands catch a non heart K,Q or J turn. Hardly oozing value!!