Play by Play - day by day

[Fatcatstu]

All i would say is, so we raise pre, then they call. We are now out of position and hating our lives on nearly every flop yes?

[noble1]

Flop - to cbet or check

assuming villain is at least thinking about what Rodders range is i.e we have a perceived range..

there is a strategy/theory you can use, not only should you look/think about your hand strength versus your oppo"s range but you should also consider what you think your perceived range is and where your actual hand fits within it..
if your actual hand is at the top end of your perceived range then on average your oppo won"t expect it to be as strong, so value betting is the best option mostly..
checking is an option when you think your oppo perceives your range to be stronger than it actually is, which would mean he"d mostly not call with weaker hands but you can get him to call worse or to bluff on later streets..

this is strategy best for level 2 plus type thinkers, given villains stack size and available stats it maybe likely he"s a typical 10nl reg who"s at least thinking about what Rodders may have..

another thing that Bren has touched upon, is what you consider villains pre-flop range to be, Bren has had a go and broken down that range so from an analysis point of view the next step could be to work out the EV of various cbet sizes and how many parts of his range call/raise or react etc...
consider all size bets from 1/3 psb to overbets and see what you come up with...

i hope this gets you thinking

[dwh103]

Good post Dave. I think we are ready for the next action tbh I was going to leave it until tomorrow but we have had lots of discussion and the general consensus seems to be bet out strongly. So OK, Here Goes, it get more interesting here imo

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) ZOOM - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (BTN): $37.67
SB: $42.41
BB: $5.10
UTG: $10.70
MP: $10.27
CO: $7.55

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has 3d 3h

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.30, SB calls $0.25, fold

Flop: ($0.70, 2 players) 5h 3c Ah
SB checks, Hero bets $0.60, SB raises to $1.90, Hero calls ???

OK, what does he have what are you doing what is your plan for future action?

Breaking his range down:

Mediocre-weak or Air: Highly unlikely. Poor players may auto CR something like AQ/AJ, and chance of CR bluff with air is non-zero, but there"s no value in flatting to induce further action. This player"s stats do not suggest this line is likely and a call from the Hero will shut down Villain unless he outdraws us on the turn.

Therefore his range is heavily biased to monsters or a draw. I guess AK is a possibility, but the most unlikely.

Monsters: This includes 55 (3 combinations) and two pair (5 suited combos, 8 unsuited). If he never calls Axo or 53s (I"m assuming he folds 53o), and often slow plays AA, then you"re 3:2 against and this spot becomes really grim. I suspect the AA part at least is unrealistic, so at worse you"re a small favourite against his monster range, which suggests you should 3 bet here for value.

Draws: Worst case scenario is villain holds 64hh in which case you"re 59.8%. Most of the time you"ll have 75% equity. Keep raising.

The weaker end of his monsters should be a little concerned at a flop 3b, but holding bottom set makes top 2 the most likely holding he has. There"s a distinct lack of combo draw possibilities (esp given the Ace is a heart) so his most likely draw will be the bare flush draw. I"d be looking to raise an amount to commit the Villain if he 4bets, or make it easy for me to get significant money in on the turn and river. A pot raise would be to $6.40. If called the pot on the turn is $13.50 and a couple of 2/3 pot bets can get your stack in should you wish. This would be my starting point, though the worse the player the more I"m raising.

If he 4bets I 5bet jam, if he flats I give a greater weighting to a bare flush draw and then barf big time when the inevitable heart comes on the turn (or the board pairs).

[Bigfella42]

Pesonally never checking this flop would bet three quarters pot or something similar. We need an opponent to have some type of potential with his hand but we"re almost certainly ahead and need to start to build the pot. Not sure what the point is of checking, I just dont get it.

[Bigfella42]

All i would say is, so we raise pre, then they call. We are now out of position and hating our lives on nearly every flop yes?

No we are in position we"re on the button.

[Fatcatstu]

All i would say is, so we raise pre, then they call. We are now out of position and hating our lives on nearly every flop yes?

No we are in position we"re on the button.

Are we? I thought we were in Sb? Oops!

[TheSnapper]

All i would say is, so we raise pre, then they call. We are now out of position and hating our lives on nearly every flop yes?

No we are in position we"re on the button.

Are we? I thought we were in Sb? Oops!

we are oop in this scenario where we are discussing the pros and cons of 3b"ing 55 from the sb.

[Fatcatstu]

All i would say is, so we raise pre, then they call. We are now out of position and hating our lives on nearly every flop yes?

No we are in position we"re on the button.

Are we? I thought we were in Sb? Oops!

we are oop in this scenario where we are discussing the pros and cons of 3b"ing 55 from the sb.

Thanks bredan, didnt think i had made that boo-boo :p

[AAroddersAA]

Liking every-bodies contributions to this thread and am impressed by how well the community can understand and discuss these situations. I will try and do respond to Nobles post when I have more time as it is pushing the limits of my brain power *lol*.

The 55 from the SB, just because he should not 3-bet does not mean that he won"t of course, some players might. My opinion is that Brendan nailed it when he said my opponent who is decent will at least have some idea about my range for raising the button. My PFR from the button is 27% and my RFI is 74%. My fold to 3-bet stat is actually exploitable (I already know this) and there is a chance this opponent may pick up on that (most don"t). It actually looks like an ideal spot to 3-bet almost ATC but calling with 55 here is likely to be more +EV against my range. He can win a decent sized pot if he hits a set. If my range was tighter it may become a fold due to reverse implied odds at this level with stack sizes. More on that later in the post.

So we have now been raised and here is where my opinion is likely to differ to a lot of peoples. He has made it $1.90, we are not that unhappy about that but personally I am not fist pumping at this point.  If I was 100BB deep I would be trying to get all the money into the pot right now. But I am 350BB deep, this is a very different situation.

The "default" play here would be to make it ~$6. If we do this how do we think our opponent is going to play? I think he will maybe think I have AK in my range but I don"t think I do this with AK to be honest, nor do I think I should be. I can have AA here and it does now not look like I have a flush draw. My range is pretty much narrowed to two pair and sets. I am not exactly at the top of that range either. I am kind of repping AA here. I therefore pretty much hate my life if after my raise to $6 he comes back and make it ~$18 or shoves. I don"t think he is expecting me to fold so I don"t see him doing that with a flush draw (with which I would expect him to call the bet to ~$6). That kind of action is screaming SET to me suddenly that very unlikely 55 or AA is a lot more likely. My current session stats make calling the PFR with AA a decent enough play actually.

I am therefore going to call the raise for two reasons:-

1) I keep his range wide and lots of hands I beat are still in the pot
2) Pot control, I don"t want stacks in the middle and a 700BB pot with this hand

One thing that I am aware of that crossed my mind at the time, could the best play with this hand on this flop be to 3bet/fold? If I think hands like AK, 2 pair and flush draws do call the 3-bet but only sets 4-bet then that may be the nut line?

If I call he is going to bet about $3 on the turn which I can call (assuming no heart) and about $6 on the river which I can again call. This makes the pot about 220bb which is about the right size pot my hand wants to play.

If he then checks on the turn I become much more confident and can bet the turn and if he check to me on the river I can again bet for the same result.

Probably not the way most people would play it and not 100% sure that it is correct (although I am pretty sure it is correct at 10nl Zoom tbh). Think it makes for a good discussion though.

[Bigfella42]

All i would say is, so we raise pre, then they call. We are now out of position and hating our lives on nearly every flop yes?

No we are in position we"re on the button.

Are we? I thought we were in Sb? Oops!

we are oop in this scenario where we are discussing the pros and cons of 3b"ing 55 from the sb.

Sorry

I was referring to OP will teach me to read the whole thread properly.

[dwh103]

Liking every-bodies contributions to this thread and am impressed by how well the community can understand and discuss these situations. I will try and do respond to Nobles post when I have more time as it is pushing the limits of my brain power *lol*.

The 55 from the SB, just because he should not 3-bet does not mean that he won"t of course, some players might. My opinion is that Brendan nailed it when he said my opponent who is decent will at least have some idea about my range for raising the button. My PFR from the button is 27% and my RFI is 74%. My fold to 3-bet stat is actually exploitable (I already know this) and there is a chance this opponent may pick up on that (most don"t). It actually looks like an ideal spot to 3-bet almost ATC but calling with 55 here is likely to be more +EV against my range. He can win a decent sized pot if he hits a set. If my range was tighter it may become a fold due to reverse implied odds at this level with stack sizes. More on that later in the post.

So we have now been raised and here is where my opinion is likely to differ to a lot of peoples. He has made it $1.90, we are not that unhappy about that but personally I am not fist pumping at this point.  If I was 100BB deep I would be trying to get all the money into the pot right now. But I am 350BB deep, this is a very different situation.

The "default" play here would be to make it ~$6. If we do this how do we think our opponent is going to play? I think he will maybe think I have AK in my range but I don"t think I do this with AK to be honest, nor do I think I should be. I can have AA here and it does now not look like I have a flush draw. My range is pretty much narrowed to two pair and sets. I am not exactly at the top of that range either. I am kind of repping AA here. I therefore pretty much hate my life if after my raise to $6 he comes back and make it ~$18 or shoves. I don"t think he is expecting me to fold so I don"t see him doing that with a flush draw (with which I would expect him to call the bet to ~$6). That kind of action is screaming SET to me suddenly that very unlikely 55 or AA is a lot more likely. My current session stats make calling the PFR with AA a decent enough play actually.

I am therefore going to call the raise for two reasons:-

1) I keep his range wide and lots of hands I beat are still in the pot
2) Pot control, I don"t want stacks in the middle and a 700BB pot with this hand

One thing that I am aware of that crossed my mind at the time, could the best play with this hand on this flop be to 3bet/fold? If I think hands like AK, 2 pair and flush draws do call the 3-bet but only sets 4-bet then that may be the nut line?

If I call he is going to bet about $3 on the turn which I can call (assuming no heart) and about $6 on the river which I can again call. This makes the pot about 220bb which is about the right size pot my hand wants to play.

If he then checks on the turn I become much more confident and can bet the turn and if he check to me on the river I can again bet for the same result.

Probably not the way most people would play it and not 100% sure that it is correct (although I am pretty sure it is correct at 10nl Zoom tbh). Think it makes for a good discussion though.

If your opponent will correctly analyse how his range looks and then correctly analyse what your subsequent 3b value range should be in the time allowed, then yes, a call may be better. However I do think you"re overthinking this considerably at /10c Zoom - even if it is correct against this particular player. I would need specific evidence of higher level play from this Villain before I start worrying about this particular level. Have you run this guy through PTR?

In respect of your point 1, there aren"t many hands you"re keeping in. His value CR range is pretty much 2 pair+, a good player may fold A3 (not many combos left as you have 33) and A5 but many, many more will be going broke here. You allow all his draws a free chance to hit, if he has a nut draw he may well call a 3bet on the flop expecting to get your stack if he hits.

However, it does seem to me that your 6th sense was working and flagging up some alarm bells. You wouldn"t mention point 2 or 3b/folding otherwise. I"ve learnt not to underestimate that gut feeling myself, though I"m yet to be convinced calling is better.

[noble1]

but holding bottom set makes top 2 the most likely holding he has. There"s a distinct lack of combo draw possibilities (esp given the Ace is a heart) so his most likely draw will be the bare flush draw. I"d be looking to raise an amount to commit the Villain if he 4bets, or make it easy for me to get significant money in on the turn and river. A pot raise would be to $6.40. If called the pot on the turn is $13.50 and a couple of 2/3 pot bets can get your stack in should you wish. This would be my starting point, though the worse the player the more I"m raising.

If he 4bets I 5bet jam, if he flats I give a greater weighting to a bare flush draw and then barf big time when the inevitable heart comes on the turn (or the board pairs).

you don"t think with his Laggy stats 30/28 and 10% 3bet [small sample though ] that he 3bets pre a lot of his Ax hands making top 2 a tad more unlikely DWH? [even worse if he has anything on Rodders regarding his pre fold to 3bet % from the btn]

i dont play 10nl zoom a great deal, but wouldn"t a micro players 4bet flop range this deep be more weighed towards value this deep?

[dwh103]

but holding bottom set makes top 2 the most likely holding he has. There"s a distinct lack of combo draw possibilities (esp given the Ace is a heart) so his most likely draw will be the bare flush draw. I"d be looking to raise an amount to commit the Villain if he 4bets, or make it easy for me to get significant money in on the turn and river. A pot raise would be to $6.40. If called the pot on the turn is $13.50 and a couple of 2/3 pot bets can get your stack in should you wish. This would be my starting point, though the worse the player the more I"m raising.

If he 4bets I 5bet jam, if he flats I give a greater weighting to a bare flush draw and then barf big time when the inevitable heart comes on the turn (or the board pairs).

you don"t think with his Laggy stats 30/28 and 10% 3bet [small sample though ] that he 3bets pre a lot of his Ax hands making top 2 a tad more unlikely DWH? [even worse if he has anything on Rodders regarding his pre fold to 3bet % from the btn]

i dont play 10nl zoom a great deal, but wouldn"t a micro players 4bet flop range this deep be more weighed towards value this deep?

Yeah, maybe. I hadn"t returned to look at the stats so you have a more than valid point. Perhaps a breakdown of whether he"s 3betting in position or re-stealing may be handy. Depends how he"s defending vs LP raises. Rodders?

His 4bet flop range is almost solely value, not much in the way of nut combo draws he can hold, let alone 4b with.

[AAroddersAA]

Wanted to leave this open for a while to see if there were any further thoughts. I did just call the flop and the turn as below before the river arrived


PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) ZOOM - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (BTN): $37.67
SB: $42.41
BB: $5.10
UTG: $10.70
MP: $10.27
CO: $7.55

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.30, SB calls $0.25, fold

Flop: ($0.70, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.60, SB raises to $1.90, Hero calls $1.30

Turn: ($4.50, 2 players)
SB bets $2.90, Hero calls $2.90

River: ($10.30, 2 players) As
SB bets $7.20,

Simple call now?
Thoughts on raise/fold line?

[dwh103]

Definitely not raising. He"s heavily weighted towards boats here, can"t see him CR/barrel/barrel vs resistance with a busted flush draw so in the cold light of day it"s probably a fold given I believe his flop CR value range is relatively narrow.