[pokerpops]

I had a tough weekend one way or another and this is one of a couple of hands where I"m pretty sure my game was not at it"s best. There"s a couple from the DS that I need to think about too, but let"s start the ball rolling


After a few adventures, including being slowrolled by someone who called my shove and then waited to see my hand before rolling over Aces. Got lucky with KJ in a 3way all in vs AQ (slowrolling git) and AK and eventually reached the 1500/3000/400 level with around 85k and have not long moved tables.

194 entries, plus reloads to make a prize pool of £32,200. 27 paid and currently around 66 left

Villain - Seat 2 has 100k+. Older than me, grizzled looking - opens utg(possibly +1, my memory is blurred through lack of sleep) to 10,000
Folds to me in LP and I find   and raise to 37000** planning on calling a shove, but expecting a fold.

He flats... I really didn"t expect this and it left me somewhat nonplussed

Flop is x x

He checks

What now?




**Opinions on this? Shove, raise smaller or flat?

[AAroddersAA]

Shove Pre ? Going by my maths we have a pot of

10K (raise) + 4.5K (Blinds) + 3600? (Ante)

Total pot is 18100?

We have 85K so we add more than 20% to our stack if he fold and if he calls we are still likely to have some good equity. I would initially say that it is a shove pre for these reasons. It actually looks like the ideal 3-bet shove spot.

As played it quite hard without being at the table but assigning you a tightish image and him the profile of a standard live player.

Looks like a good flop to c-bet and I think he is folding a lot of his range here. Live players may well fold a pair below a King here a lot of the time. He is also folding most of the suited Aces and broadways in his range.

He pretty much only calls here with a king (an underpair usually thinks you got there with AK) and the only king that SHOULD be in his range here is KQ (maybe KJ). Add in some extra King combos that incorrectly called pre and maybe some pair combos that get stubborn post flop and call you anyway and we only have:-

12 Combo of KQ
12 Combo of KJ
12 Combo of other Kings or AK that called incorrectly say
8  Combo of PP that call (there maybe more than this tbh)

All of the above call? I make that 44 combos (Very roughly)

Folding is most likely depandant on his opening range from EP. I would have thought he is folding the below:-

AQ (6 Combo"s)
AJ (16 Combos)
JJ (6 Combos)
TT (6 Combos)
Add in some other Ax combos and PP also

Looks like we have enough fold equity to shove without taking into account the fact that sometimes we will get called and still win the pot. I would not be worrying too much about tournament life at this stage btw we are a long way from the bubble.

[HOLDorFOLD]

[AMRN]

Perfect spot and stack size for a 3bet shove pre.

As played, understanding that he will probably check 100% on the flop, I probably shove and pray he"s missed.... there"s no room to cbet/fold, and I don"t want to let him think he has any impetus by cbetting small. Shove the flop, maximise fold equity, close eyes and pray.

[hi_am_chris]

Hopefully visibly closing our eyes and praying at the  table while he stares us down doesn"t encourage him to call with his middle pair  

[AMRN]

Hopefully visibly closing our eyes and praying at the  table while he stares us down doesn"t encourage him to call with his middle pair  

I"d like to think we could keep it to metaphorical closing of the eyes and praying

[deanp27]

Not played live poker much recently but I"m not 3bet calling AQ for this much against an old guy opening 3x+ from UTG without a really good reason. As played the 3bet size should either be much smaller (say 23k) or you should jam. Personally I may flat this but folding pre is also fine.

This does depend on any specific reads though, if he doesn"t cbet frequently then flatting pre is probably best

[deanp27]

Pot is so big I think you have to pile the flop now and hope he folds tens face up

[Fatcatstu]

I probably stick it in his eye pre Dave, but as played Nowt wrong with your move at all and I would always be doing the same in that situation. Remember, people only hit the flop 1in3 and if he has an underpaid to the king he might very well be folding.

Don"t be too down on yourself for the results this weekend mate, it happens, you have realised you made a couple mistakes and you are good enough to learn from it and move on to bigger and better things x

[pokerpops]

Thanks for the input thus far

"expecting a fold" came from his comment a hand or two before when he expressed a desire to "not get involved with the bigger stacks"

I didn"t jam because...

I prefer not to open-jam a c30BB stack over a single raiser - this may be wrong-headed, and contrary to my plan to call if he shoves, but maybe not. I have made the move in the past and on other days may do so again. This time the raise seemed a better idea.

It all became interesting when he flats though - does anyone have any idea what his range might be?

[HOLDorFOLD]

It all became interesting when he flats though - does anyone have any idea what his range might be?

Judging by the title of the thread I am thinking grizzly turns out to have has 67s suited or such like or "oh this is my favourite hand have to play it K2os"

But initially, when first reading it, with no other info to go on I was thinking AK, AQ   pairs 55 up to JJ.  Any QQ, KK, AA he would have re-popped you pre.

Now that you have also mentioned what he said earlier about not wanting to get involved with larger stacks ... this makes the pre raise more understandable over a shove or a flat and why you thought he would fold. The fact he called would have made me wary post flop. I"m probably giving the guy too much credit here and still checking, then kicking myself afterwards for not getting it in on the flop.

[George2Loose]

It"s live poker- you always have to expect them to flat.

I would actually fold here and feel fine about it. You have an awkward stack where 3 bet calling is probs bad and 3 bet folding is just too much of your stack.

I know this sounds gay but would be good to know what the xx is on the flop besides the king. More likely to jam a flop like say K92 then maybe K22 for example as he may fold 77 on the first but call on the second.

[George2Loose]

Villain - Seat 2 has 100k+. Older than me, grizzled looking - opens utg(possibly +1, my memory is blurred through lack of sleep) to 10,000
Folds to me in LP and I find   and raise to 37000** planning on calling a shove, but expecting a fold.

Oh and nice brag

[pokerpops]

Villain - Seat 2 has 100k+. Older than me, grizzled looking - opens utg(possibly +1, my memory is blurred through lack of sleep) to 10,000
Folds to me in LP and I find   and raise to 37000** planning on calling a shove, but expecting a fold.

Oh and nice brag

Cheeky!

The flop was more K74 ish, rainbow.

Folding AQs pre seems so weak though, I know we"ve debated it before and maybe in the early stages of a deepstack I"d find the capacity to play it more quietly, but we"re in a fast(ish) structure with average stack being c20BB plus chunky antes.

I"m prepared to be wrong, and your record says you"re right more than me, but ...

Edited to a less disputatious conclusion. I can be guilty of not listening and not learning, so I"m open to persuasion that folding pre here is ok.

[AAroddersAA]

It"s live poker- you always have to expect them to flat.

I would actually fold here and feel fine about it. You have an awkward stack where 3 bet calling is probs bad and 3 bet folding is just too much of your stack.

I know this sounds gay but would be good to know what the xx is on the flop besides the king. More likely to jam a flop like say K92 then maybe K22 for example as he may fold 77 on the first but call on the second.

Should we really fold this pre George? The spot looks ideal to shove although I admit the 3x raise is a bit of a concern, most people raise less now and 3x raises are often strong. Would it change if he had raised say 2.5x? or min raised?

Is there not enough in there for us to shove and try and take the pot in your opinion? If we are not folding then raise/call and raise fold are both call and I don"t like flatting as if we miss what are we doing then (folding I assume). A shove looks like the best play to me, are th ranges from an EP raise live tighter than I am giving him credit for here?