I will do my best with this one.
We have a raise from MP. Based on the read that you have given when it folds to us in the BB he could have ATC. Is there any reason not for us to think this? Do we have any stats on the player?
I would not mind a flat at this point and I don"t mind the raise. If I do raise I am hoping for a fold though as there are not many flops I like in a 3-bet pot really. I guess I am going to have to fold if he 4-bets me unless there is some reason I am not aware of why you would not have done this against this player. The stack sizes are kind of awkward and I don"t hate a fold pre to be honest if I think he is a good player I might well fold pre as he can put me in all sorts of horrid spots post with this hand and these stacks.
As played if we think he is going to call wide might as well 3 bet smallish. I would actually make it 1500 more so my raise would be to 3300, not really an issue either way is it. I am not very happy when he calls.
I am still not too sure what he has. He should not have total trash I think? Although it is hard to say without a better read tbh.
He has not got a big pair that often so lets take AA, KK and QQ out. AK does not sound that likely either as surely in this spot it is better to just get it in pre with a hand like AK or QQ, especially if he knows his reputation. I suppose AA or KK could be trapping but they are less likely. Maybe a combo each of AA and KK and say 4 combos of AK?
I think he range is going to contain some small pairs 22-TT say, SC should fold pre really to the 3-bet but he might call and plan to outplay you if he has a good read. AQ and Axs are also possible imo.
So I think his range might be
AQ, AJ, Axs, Lot"s of SC.
When the flop comes down the pot is 6800 correct?
You have hit TPTK and there are a few draws on the board. Flush draws, 9T and probably a few combo draws. Maybe hands like KJ and QJ as well. I am still finding it hard to put him on a range.
You bet 3800 and he raises quite strong to 8500 (pot is now 19100 right? You have about 33K left). He now should have value hands, semi bluffs and total bluffs.
Value hands may include some worse Jacks. I think he has some of those in his range at this point KJ and QJ are possible as he may have peeled IP with such hands. Heart draws are not impossible and combo draws pair and FD and maybe gutshot and flush draw type hands. Wou;ld he raise a Jack here?
If I give him a very rough estimated range of
JJ, 88, 44, AhQh, AJs, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah4h, KJs, QJs, JTs, T9s, 7h6h, 5h4h, AJo, KJo ,QJo, T9o
Then we should shove we are 60% against this range and have very attractive pot odds (if he folds then we win more than if he calls long term). The question is how close my range for this player is to correct. So imo the flop is a shove. Quite hard a hard one to work out though to be fair, it looked like a flat to me until I looked at it. If we don"t think he raises a bare Jack (hands like KJ or QJ) then we are basically 50/50 but should still be shoving due to us having fold equity.
On the turn against that range we are 30% as the queen is a really bad card for us so it probably is a fold. It just depends how much air is in his range and our reads, however I do"t want to get in a guessing game here tbh. Given that he shoved with a good hand before I would tend to believe him and would indeed fold.
Conclusion
Preflop - dunno, fold might be best
Flop - 3-bet shove Shove
Turn - Fold
