DTD Grand Prix Day 1a Decision

[GiMac]

That"s all well and good, but there isn"t 15% of the field left, there"s 15% of this Day 1 left, and there are seven day ones

I know we"re close to a cash but it"s insignificant in the wider scale of the potential from this tournament.

Sorry you are wrong. 15% from the field you are playing in is left so the figures can be extrapolated across the overall expected field size. Maths doesn"t lie.  

so we"re playing to make a min cash?

Where have I said that? I"ll help you David I haven"t.

Surely we should always be looking to make the optimum play at any given time?

[WYoung83]

 I understand the post, and it was a really nice read, but with regards to this comment

"Surely we should always be looking to make the optimum play at any given time"?

I think Game theory optimal can be adjusted with the nature of this style of MTT. Optimum play in this situation should be looking to increase stack when a guy seem like he can be tilt shoveing and AJs is a good reason to re-ship.

[AAroddersAA]

That"s all well and good, but there isn"t 15% of the field left, there"s 15% of this Day 1 left, and there are seven day ones

I know we"re close to a cash but it"s insignificant in the wider scale of the potential from this tournament.

Sorry you are wrong. 15% from the field you are playing in is left so the figures can be extrapolated across the overall expected field size. Maths doesn"t lie.  

so we"re playing to make a min cash?

Where have I said that? I"ll help you David I haven"t.

Surely we should always be looking to make the optimum play at any given time?

Firstly some good points in this thread need to post more on this board. The debate is really great. Some of you people need to post more in the section imo :-)

I see where Gordon is coming from here (the bubble factor is a decent point but whilst ICM is always a factor is should not always be the deciding factor, I agree the argument is mathematically sound btw).

I still feel you need to take into account how much of an edge you have over the field and if you are more likely to be able to win these chips elsewhere, I think early in the tournament this is more important than ICM and is currently still a more important consideration. For me the pots odds and the fact we are in what should be a pretty tough field dictate a call (just). Also the figure of 52% is not taking split pots into account, I am not an expert on ICM tbh but thought that we should be using the overall win % figure that takes account of split pots (I could easily be wrong on this it is certainly not one of my areas of expertise).

[GiMac]

Firstly some good points in this thread need to post more on this board. The debate is really great. Some of you people need to post more in the section imo :-)

I see where Gordon is coming from here (the bubble factor is a decent point but whilst ICM is always a factor is should not always be the deciding factor, I agree the argument is mathematically sound btw).

I still feel you need to take into account how much of an edge you have over the field and if you are more likely to be able to win these chips elsewhere, I think early in the tournament this is more important than ICM and is currently still a more important consideration. For me the pots odds and the fact we are in what should be a pretty tough field dictate a call (just). Also the figure of 52% is not taking split pots into account, I am not an expert on ICM tbh but thought that we should be using the overall win % figure that takes account of split pots (I could easily be wrong on this it is certainly not one of my areas of expertise).

I agree its not the overriding factor, but neither should assuming the guy is tilt shoving. How many times do we lose or see someone lose a hand only to open shove a monster the very next hand? I see it happen all the time and people invariably pay them off because they assume he is tilting. Also if you feel you have an edge over the field then you definitely do not need to risk over half your stack making marginal calls like this.


I think you use the winning % figure cos the split pot percentage is neutral, but I may be corrected.

At the end of the day it"s a very close and marginal call/fold which is probably why we are discussing it, but for me it"s too marginal and a long term losing call.

[GiMac]

I understand the post, and it was a really nice read, but with regards to this comment

"Surely we should always be looking to make the optimum play at any given time"?

I think Game theory optimal can be adjusted with the nature of this style of MTT. Optimum play in this situation should be looking to increase stack when a guy seem like he can be tilt shoveing and AJs is a good reason to re-ship.

^^^^^^^see my post above reference "tilt shoving", also we have taken into account that this is a wider than usual shove and the maths still says I"m out.


p.s. A lot of players think only about chip accumulation in MTT"s, but it"s also about chip preservation. i suppose the secret is getting the balance correct.

[Fatcatstu]

All this "equity" "ICM" "game theory" Pap has got me narked. I just said the following to someone on favebook.

I dont care what the "equity" is, i think he is steaming, i have AJ. I have 20bb if i call and lose, i have about 60bb and a decent stack to attack the next day with if i do a win.

i dont need a pokeroven to tell me what to do.

[GiMac]

I dont care what the "equity" is, i think he is steaming, i have AJ. I have 20bb if i call and lose, i have about 60bb and a decent stack to attack the next day with if i do a win.

If i had 20 bigs and an M of 9-10 if i called and lost then I probably call but we don"t we have 15-16 if we lose and an M of only 7. As I said it"s a close run thing between the fold or call. Also if we all played the same way it would be a boring game.

[pokerpops]

There are 20 left, we"re playing down to 14 and we"ve already secured a £60 token for another attempt (I have a second Golden Chip anyway but the token may have a value if I play again online on Thursday)

***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ***** (IPoker)
Tourney Hand NL Texas Hold'em - Wednesday, March 13, 12:04:59 ET 2013
Table Dusk GP Final Online Day 1c  801927327 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Seat 1: Player1 ( 303509 ) - VPIP: 34, PFR: 34, 3B: 13, AF: 2.0, Hands: 53
Seat 2: Player2 ( 192500 ) - VPIP: 30, PFR: 13, 3B: 5, AF: 2.5, Hands: 90
Seat 3: Hero ( 120431 ) - VPIP: 17, PFR: 11, 3B: 6, AF: 2.0, Hands: 3496
Seat 5: Player5 ( 241611 ) - VPIP: 18, PFR: 16, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 90
Seat 6: Player6 ( 140284 ) - VPIP: 13, PFR: 4, 3B: 7, AF: 0.0, Hands: 24
Seat 8: Player8 ( 55946 ) - VPIP: 7, PFR: 5, 3B: 3, AF: 0.0, Hands: 76
Seat 9: Player9 ( 54066 ) - VPIP: 11, PFR: 3, 3B: 0, AF: 1.0, Hands: 36
Player9 posts ante of [500].
Player1 posts ante of [500].
Player2 posts ante of [500].
Hero posts ante of [500].
Player5 posts ante of [500].
Player6 posts ante of [500].
Player8 posts ante of [500].
Player9 posts small blind [2500].
Player1 posts big blind [5000].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ x x ]
Player2 folds
Hero raises [11000]
Player5 folds
Player6 raises [139784]
Player8 folds
Player9 folds
Player1 folds
Hero..........

Range to call ?

[GiMac]

I am below the minimum 30 BB target I want to come back for day 2, and since I have a "free" re-entry I am looking to gamble with a wide range of hands here. But the difference is I know I am gambling, cos this guys stats says he invariably has a hand, unless he is thinking the same as me.

[pokerpops]

I am below the minimum 30 BB target I want to come back for day 2, and since I have a "free" re-entry I am looking to gamble with a wide range of hands here. But the difference is I know I am gambling, cos this guys stats says he invariably has a hand, unless he is thinking the same as me.

So his range is??

And now you"re ready to gamble??

[GiMac]

I am below the minimum 30 BB target I want to come back for day 2, and since I have a "free" re-entry I am looking to gamble with a wide range of hands here. But the difference is I know I am gambling, cos this guys stats says he invariably has a hand, unless he is thinking the same as me.

So his range is??

And now you"re ready to gamble??

It"s a COMPLETELY different scenario, so not sure what point you are trying to make.

But since you ask we can"t put him on a range, as we do not have enough information. If you can put someone on a range of hands after playing only 24 hands then you are a far better player than I will ever be. Here with this stack, since I set myself a minimum 30xBB stack target to go to day 2 with, as it is not worth the expense of travel etc with any less AND a free re-entry, yes I am looking for a spot to gamble, so it"s more about what I am prepared to gamble with not what I guess his hand to be cos thats all it will be a guess.


p.s. Also important that he covers me, cos i don"t want to be left with a ****ty small stack and unable to use my re-entry cos I am left with 5 bigs behind or something.  

p.p.s. You seem to be implyingt that I am unable or unwilling to gamble. I disagree, I just choose to gamble when the situation requires it. The original situation posted is not a situation where we need to gamble imho.

[Erimus]

Tough spot, it looks like AK, AQ maybe JJ or a mid pair he doesnt want to see a flop with,you have  22 bigs but you also have 2 more goes so that may skew decision.

I would be surprised if he has AA or KK here,  wouldn"t play either of theses hands like this surely.

Only 24 hands on villain, stats can"t be relied upon here but does indicate a decent holding.

12 months ago I fold,these days  77+AK, take the flip if he has the usual win the race, hit a set if he has an overpair, if  
you don"t bink have another go.

AQ insta fold, hate calling off with AQ in this spot so many times dominated.

Gotta win them flips, or even 94% favourites after flop in previous games, not bitter just saying.

Going into Day 2 with 20 bigs compared to 30 plus is massive makes Day 2 easier to play and your not hoping for a double up early or an early trip home.

[pokerpops]

I am below the minimum 30 BB target I want to come back for day 2, and since I have a "free" re-entry I am looking to gamble with a wide range of hands here. But the difference is I know I am gambling, cos this guys stats says he invariably has a hand, unless he is thinking the same as me.

So his range is??

And now you"re ready to gamble??

It"s a COMPLETELY different scenario, so not sure what point you are trying to make.

But since you ask we can"t put him on a range, as we do not have enough information. If you can put someone on a range of hands after playing only 24 hands then you are a far better player than I will ever be. Here with this stack, since I set myself a minimum 30xBB stack target to go to day 2 with, as it is not worth the expense of travel etc with any less AND a free re-entry, yes I am looking for a spot to gamble, so it"s more about what I am prepared to gamble with not what I guess his hand to be cos thats all it will be a guess.


p.s. Also important that he covers me, cos i don"t want to be left with a ****ty small stack and unable to use my re-entry cos I am left with 5 bigs behind or something.  

p.p.s. You seem to be implyingt that I am unable or unwilling to gamble. I disagree, I just choose to gamble when the situation requires it. The original situation posted is not a situation where we need to gamble imho.

OK - the scenario is different. Closer to the end of the day and bigger stacks involved, but my point was that you justify the fold earlier using GTO and yet you are calling wide here because you think you want to gamble?

I"m not gambling here. I"m looking for spots to pick up some chips with pressure on the shorter stacks and anticipating that they will reshove lighter than usual given the re-entry opportunity, but I"m not going to take big gambles.

Probably worth noting that the blinds when Day 2 starts will be 2500/5000/500 regardless of how much longer it takes to get down to the 10% and that going into Day 2 with 130k gives us a chance of making decent progress.



BUT - I posted this hand as I raged about it"s result having exited the tourney, not to see if I"d made an error in it.
Unless anyone here can make an argument for open-shoving 26BB utg+1 with KK?

50p has gone into the Comic Relief tin

[Chipaccrual]

Question for those that are folding the hand in the OP.

What range of cards would I need to have to make it a call for you, or is it a case of being unable to put him on a range, and therefore the risk of losing that amount of chips makes it a fold unless i"ve got kings or aces ?

[GiMac]

Question for those that are folding the hand in the OP.

What range of cards would I need to have to make it a call for you, or is it a case of being unable to put him on a range, and therefore the risk of losing that amount of chips makes it a fold unless i"ve got kings or aces ?

I think for me its probably 99+ and AQ+