Cash Bubble Spot

[Erimus]

$22 cubed on Tilt

Thoughts on this hand please, too light to shove ?, Would you just let it go and see a what the next round of cards bring ?

If you are kingriver what do you call with, no info just moved tables, i am currently 16th 15 paid, min cash is $20 profit which is not my aim, there is one shortie who has about 8k in the tournament.

He has 20k so he obviously covers me but its a good portion of his stack, and would leave him short.

Full Tilt Poker Game #32345650809: Gleaming the Cube (251167594), Table 15 - 800/1600 Ante 200 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:26:18 WET - 2013/03/20 [19:26:18 ET - 2013/03/20]
Seat 1: TaxxIdriVER (30,662)
Seat 2: PokerKaiser (27,907)
Seat 3: Frau Kunigunde (7,914)
Seat 4: 66Crush66 (43,330)
Seat 5: guskAAmei (102,454)
Seat 6: passibayern123 (39,222)
Seat 7: Cain Velasquez (33,162)
Seat 8: Credo7 (12,566)
Seat 9: kingriver321 (20,841)
TaxxIdriVER antes 200
PokerKaiser antes 200
Frau Kunigunde antes 200
66Crush66 antes 200
guskAAmei antes 200
passibayern123 antes 200
Cain Velasquez antes 200
Credo7 antes 200
kingriver321 antes 200
Credo7 posts the small blind of 800
kingriver321 posts the big blind of 1,600
The button is in seat #7
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Credo7 [ ]
TaxxIdriVER folds
PokerKaiser folds
Frau Kunigunde has 15 seconds left to act
Frau Kunigunde folds
66Crush66 folds
guskAAmei folds
passibayern123 folds
Cain Velasquez folds
Credo7 raises to 12,366, and is all in
kingriver321 calls 10,766
Credo7 shows [

[WYoung83]

I would shove here from the sb a lot of the time with this, how do you u have untill blinds increase? If they will go up before next orbit then im shoving any 2 because ur fold equity will decrese significantly. you have just about enough to make him fold, and its worth picking up the dead money.

If i was knightriver i would call with pretty wide range of 66+ A8 + KQo+ KJs+

[duke3016]

lol totally confused -had a shiite load typed (deleted) - still confused - but that"s easy   he could be calling with any perceived high hand FFS  mid A - small pair - suited pretty etc etc

[deanp27]

folding on the bubble i think

[AAroddersAA]

Well if you are currently 16th with one shorter stack and 15 are paid it is not the cash bubble I think your shove is fine here obv. I would call with 66+ A8+ KJ+ this may be a bit tight but if you are going ftw the shove cannot be bad from a cEV point of view and from $EV point of view you need to maintain your stack as you are currently outside the money so folding in is harder.

[pokerpops]

Without info on opponent I think I sigh fold this.

In BB Giving you a range of 50% of hands feels about right and I"m calling wide, any Ace, pretty much any K suited broadway cards and 66+



Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

452,400,990,624  games     0.106 secs     4,267,933,873,811  games/sec

Board:
Dead:  

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    46.292%     44.13%    02.16%      199662523704    9765123756.00   { 33+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T8o+, 98o }
Hand 1:    53.708%     51.55%    02.16%      233208219408    9765123756.00   { 66+, A2s+, K2s+, QTs+, JTs, A2o+, K2o+, QJo }

If I keep my range and give you a wider range then I"m in better shape

[Erimus]

I thought with his chipstack I could get him to fold, he would go from being relatively comfortable to the shortie, i am happy with my push and would do it on most occasions he showed up with Q 10 off, we both hit our pair on the flop then I gained a bit more equity on the turn with a flush draw, wasn"t to be.

If I was in his position I don"t think I call with Q10, still nh gg move on.

[Fatcatstu]

I thought with his chipstack I could get him to fold, he would go from being relatively comfortable to the shortie, i am happy with my push and would do it on most occasions he showed up with Q 10 off, we both hit our pair on the flop then I gained a bit more equity on the turn with a flush draw, wasn"t to be.

If I was in his position I don"t think I call with Q10, still nh gg move on.

Im pretty sure i shove with your hand and snap you off with his mate, looks like a fairly standard spot to me mate.

You can ( and should be, and WERE) be doing this soIMO it should be near enough ATC in that sspot. 2 broadway cards in that spot are likely to be golden I reckon.

Nothing wrong with your shove at all tho mate.

[noble1]

I thought with his chipstack I could get him to fold, he would go from being relatively comfortable to the shortie, i am happy with my push and would do it on most occasions he showed up with Q 10 off, we both hit our pair on the flop then I gained a bit more equity on the turn with a flush draw, wasn"t to be.

If I was in his position I don"t think I call with Q10, still nh gg move on.

put yourself in his shoes and imagine that your strategy is to win the mtt [or at least give yourself the best possible chance of a top 3 finish]

kingriver321 has QTo and he thinks you will push 50% plus..

he calls and -
48x he will increase his stack to 34,800
52x he will lose and be down to 8000

he folds and he decides to shove ATC"s bvb if its folded around to him , he thinks TaxxIdriVER will only call his jam 20% of the time -
80x he will now have a stack of 22,200
7x he will increase his stack to 39,200
13x he will bust


which is best - fold QTo or call , and think of reasons/logic as to why?

take into account also the chances it will fold around to him on his sb etc , for example everyone is fairly tight only opening there top 8% of hands - 0.92^7 = 55% , so someone will at least raise 45% of the time.. someone will raise 40% at least when its his button... etc....

[Erimus]

Yes its probably ok and i may have to open up my calling ranges in similar spots. something which i have started to do a bit more lately, although i am down a bit this month it has just been in situations like this were i am either pushing or calling in marginal spots, a little frustrated thats all, been deep in a few games with spots like above and not receiving the love.

Agree with winning the mtt rather than the frustrating min cash hence my push with any 2, gotta win all dem chips.

All part of the game onwards and upwards,actually slightly downwards but always another game.

Thanks for the input.

[dwh103]

For you, this is your best chance to pick up some chips. As part of a Nash shoving range it"s unexploitable, so Villain"s tendencies don"t actually matter. Shoving 100% in your situation is significantly +EV against a realistic calling range of 22+, A2+, Broadway (you have 15% cROI minimum across your whole range - which is absolutely golden).

For kingriver, Noble has hit the nail on the head. You"re unlikely to pick up a better spot, so is the same the case for him? Your thinking is pretty sound and he should be folding a reasonable amount. It"s very close (I"d let it go personally), but QT is marginally profitable for him also.

Edit: Clarified a bit re: shove ranges

[Yorkshire Pudding]

This is a clear shove IMO, people are just being results orientated and saying you should fold because of the bubble. In reality the BB should be folding due to it being the bubble, not the other way around.

If anyone has SNGWiz set up properly I"d love to see this hand run through it. I"d say this spot is a shove with any two cards.