Is this an unnecessary risk?

[Jon MW]

Just to prove I"m not a complete rock - I provide for your perusal a bluff.

My 2 questions for the assembled expertise are:

(1) Is this an unnecessary risk given the situation?
(2) Any idea on what the other 2 players in the hand were holding?
(I want other peoples ideas then I can say what I was thinking and see if the bluff "makes sense" in terms of my analysis)

$10 + $1
Table 1 - 50/100 - No Limit Hold'em
Seat 2: beloved_ltd (4,890)
Seat 6: eph-awph   (2,485)      -   Button
Seat 7: rus88         (1,290)      -   SB - posts 50
Seat 8: bobrobert   (2,750)      -    BB - posts 100
Seat 9: damnxx      (2,085)

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to beloved_ltd [  qc]

damnxx calls 100
beloved_ltd calls 100
eph-awph and rus 88 fold
bobrobert checks

*** FLOP *** [th ks]

bobrobert checks
damnxx checks
beloved_ltd bets 350
bobrobert calls 350
damnxx calls 350

*** TURN *** [th ks] []

bobrobert checks
damnxx checks
beloved_ltd has 15 seconds left to act
beloved_ltd bets 650
bobrobert calls 650
damnxx calls 650

*** RIVER *** [th ks ] []
bobrobert has 15 seconds left to act
bobrobert checks
damnxx checks
beloved_ltd has 15 seconds left to act
beloved_ltd has requested TIME
beloved_ltd bets 3,790, and is all in
bobrobert has 15 seconds left to act
bobrobert folds
damnxx folds

Uncalled bet of 3,790 returned to beloved_ltd
beloved_ltd mucks
beloved_ltd wins the pot (3,350)

[George2Loose]

Heads up it makes sense. You can put your opponent on QJ/weak K maybe even middle pair.

In all honesty it"s a horrible bluff which you somehow got away with!

Board is rainbow so draws are unlikely on the flop. Then a 5 hits which could have filled someone up.

Personally I would switch off on the river. However with 2 checks to you I can see why you shoved.

[Jon MW]

...
In all honesty it"s a horrible bluff which you somehow got away with!
...

This is what I thought in hindsight - I did do some analysis at the time, but I think I was mainly just getting annoyed at them being so passive and not check raising me.

[kinboshi]

Depends on how the other players have played and how you think they"ll play.

[Zanshin]

With a lot of pre-flop limping going on the hand ranges are... well pretty much anything.

When no one shows any interest in the flop it's certainly worth a bet , especially as you're chip leader (personally I would have bet slightly less here).

With both players now calling it's time to rethink the hand.

You have represented some sort of hand here by betting. If you had only one caller it could be possible that he thinks you're at it and is planning to take you off the hand. Once you get a 2nd caller then someone has a hand or is on a decent draw.

At this point I'd have at least one of them on JQ with the other still on quite a wide range.

The 5 on the turn gives you the opportunity to represent trips but I don't see how that is going to be believed. You would have to have called pre-flop with something like a suited A5 and tried to steal on the flop.

So your turn bet is still looking like you have a K, are being brave (stubborn) with a 10 or your bluffing.

When you bet out and again get two callers I'm now thinking they are possibly both on straight draws with a chance one may be trapping with a set. I think a weak K here or a 10 would have given up now with two others interested in the pot.

When the river comes a blank and it's checked by the others you are left with bluffing or accepting you loses as I can't see you Q9 taking the pot on a showdown.

To be honest I think if I'd taken it this far I'd push the rest of the way and hope they have both missed their draws or that they now panic with their weak K or 10 and finally believe you have a hand.

Of course that's the way I go out of to many tournaments..  

[Jon MW]

Most of the time they were folding or raising to continuation bets, which I was doing frequently (obv)

My thinking was that when they called the flop bet they weren"t dead, but they didn"t have any kind of decent hand and they wanted to see whether I"d carry on betting - perhaps they were considering floating a bluff.

After the turn I thought one of them might have just picked up a flush draw and the other one had a pair of some sort but it was kings with a rag kicker at best, but more likely a 10 or an even lower pocket pair.

On the river I thought one of them had definitely missed either a straight or flush draw and the other one would look a bit silly if they called an all in with a low pair and I turned over a king (this was where a bit of "hoping rather than calculation came in), if either had a pair of kings with a weak kicker I think they would have still called.

Also either of them could have been slow playing a monster - but I just hoped they weren"t.

My thinking was obviously most like Zanshins, particularly

To be honest I think if I'd taken it this far I'd push the rest of the way and hope they have both missed their draws or that they now panic with their weak K or 10 and finally believe you have a hand

and I think that might have happened but this is essentially why I normally just play tight - it"s a lot more stressful when you try triple-barreled all-in bluffs, got the heart rate going a bit though  

[mal666]

the damnxx guy wouldve had less than 1k left ,looking at a pot of around 4.5k.
the only hand he can fold on the river is exactly J Q.
the other dude has about 1700 left but he has to call out of turn with what must be a 10 10 5 5 K hand, he may believe he has u tied or even beat but doesnt think he can beat the other guy so he releases the most likely winning hand.
so unless u can put these events in order as above the question u asked is yes,
totally unnecessary

[evilpie]

I think this is being vastly overcomplicated in trying to work out what their hands are.

I think the most likely answer is that they are both typical online fish who"ve missed and can"t call an all in on the river.

Calling the 350 on that flop makes no sense unless they are laying a trap (doubtful they"re good enough to do that)

Calling the 650 again makes no sense unless it"s a trap. If they"re good they should know that it"s not worth calling the 650 to hit either a straight or flush with their stacks. They"re just not getting the right odds, whether pot or implied and even if they hit they could still be behind.

These sort of plays are a vital part of online poker. I think your bluff was brilliant and you managed to catch out 2 poor players who probably had an ace each and were hoping to hit it. I"ve lost count of the number of times I"ve bet out the flop and turn then got weak at the river and ended up losing where a big bet / all in would probably have won the pot. Well played fella  

Don"t give them too much credit, they just don"t deserve it. Take the risk that they"ve missed and shove it in!! If they were slow playing a monster then fair enough they deserve the chips.