Cool spot with a marginal hand - how to play it

[AAroddersAA]

Hi guy"s

This is an interesting hand I played today. As this hand comes up I am thinking of coming off the table as the player to my right has been a pain and is making my life difficult constantly 3-betting my opens from the button and cut off.

PokerStars Hand #96817013101:  Hold'em No Limit ($0.05/$0.10 USD) - 2013/04/07 20:22:35 WET [2013/04/07 15:22:35 ET]
Table "Cydonia II" 6-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: Semmylina ($28.28 in chips)
Seat 2: SerialKil|3r ($24.25 in chips)
Seat 3: eddila ($25 in chips)
Seat 4: xsnowstorm ($25.55 in chips)
Seat 5: 33teetwo33 ($25.59 in chips) - VP$IP: 25% | PFR: 21% | 3-Bet: 11% | Fold to 3-bet: 64%
Seat 6: ILOVESIMONE ($31.66 in chips) - VP$IP: 22% | PFR: 21% | 3-Bet: 18% | Fold to 3-Bet: 63%
ILOVESIMONE: posts small blind $0.05
Semmylina: posts big blind $0.10
Semmylina: posts the ante $0.02
SerialKil|3r: posts the ante $0.02
eddila: posts the ante $0.02
xsnowstorm: posts the ante $0.02
33teetwo33: posts the ante $0.02
ILOVESIMONE: posts the ante $0.02
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to 33teetwo33 [ ]
SerialKil|3r: folds
eddila: folds
xsnowstorm: folds
33teetwo33: raises $0.20 to $0.30
ILOVESIMONE: raises $0.70 to $1
Semmylina: folds
33teetwo33:

As you can see I am on the button and make a standard raise when it folds around to me, I do this very wide and the player in the SB has 3-bet me three times when I have raised the button. I have not yet seen how he reacts to a 4 bet but we are sitting fairly deep and he is not folding a huge amount to 3-bets so I would not be surprised to see him peel it off.

What is your play here?

[Fatcatstu]

. I have not yet seen how he reacts to a 4 bet but we are sitting fairly deep and he is not folding a huge amount to 3-bets so I would not be surprised to see him peel it off.

What is your play here?

Right, Are you leaving the table or not?

If yes, fold and GTFO, if no, 4 bet the bell end.

[Bigfella42]

What has he been showing down with his previous 3 bets? I think it"s a fold most of the time K9 is not going to flop strong enough most of the time.

[AAroddersAA]

Good point Glenn. I have seen the following hand play out at this point which I should have included in the OP. The opponent in my hand in the OP is the button here.

PokerStars - $0.10 Ante $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

SB: $26.94
BB: $38.10
UTG: $17.59
MP: $20.00
Hero (CO): $26.07
BTN: $20.46

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10, SB posts ante $0.02, BB posts ante $0.02, UTG posts ante $0.02, MP posts ante $0.02, Hero posts ante $0.02, BTN posts ante $0.02

Pre Flop: ($0.27) Hero has  9:diamond: A:spade:

fold, MP raises to $0.30, fold, BTN raises to $1.00, fold, BB calls $0.90, fold

Flop: ($2.47, 2 players)  J:club: 3:club: 4:club:
BB checks, BTN bets $1.80, BB raises to $3.60, BTN calls $1.80

Turn: ($9.67, 2 players)  6:heart:
BB bets $2.10, BTN calls $2.10

River: ($13.87, 2 players)  A:club:
BB bets $7.60, BTN calls $7.60

BB shows  J:diamond: K:diamond:  (One Pair, Jacks) (Pre 48%, Flop 56%, Turn 68%)
BTN shows  7:diamond: 7:club:  (Flush, Ace High) (Pre 52%, Flop 44%, Turn 32%)
BTN wins $27.76

I have also seen him 3-bet 86s which ended up getting checked down on a Ace high flop. I have also seen a few others which have not been shown down.

Given the frequency of his 3-bets, especially against me in this specific spot I reckon to be ahead of his range with K9 and I am in position. Don"t think I am ever folding here.

Stu - I was going to leave but was waiting for a waiting list to open up a seat for me.

[Fatcatstu]

Given the frequency of his 3-bets, especially against me in this specific spot I reckon to be ahead of his range with K9 and I am in position. Don"t think I am ever folding here.

Stu - I was going to leave but was waiting for a waiting list to open up a seat for me.

Ok, so i am definitely 4 betting now. He has been running you over to this point by the sounds of it, you figure to be ahead of his range, so why are we flatting?

As Glenn said, K9 is not going to flop massive most of the time, and i think that if we just flat we are just leaving ourself in a horrible spot, granted, in position, but I honestly think 4 betting now strengthens our hand, perhaps makes him fold pre and if he flats, we are in position, being the aggressor.

Dont see many benefits to flatting here at all.

[AAroddersAA]

Given the frequency of his 3-bets, especially against me in this specific spot I reckon to be ahead of his range with K9 and I am in position. Don"t think I am ever folding here.

Stu - I was going to leave but was waiting for a waiting list to open up a seat for me.

Ok, so i am definitely 4 betting now. He has been running you over to this point by the sounds of it, you figure to be ahead of his range, so why are we flatting?

As Glenn said, K9 is not going to flop massive most of the time, and i think that if we just flat we are just leaving ourself in a horrible spot, granted, in position, but I honestly think 4 betting now strengthens our hand, perhaps makes him fold pre and if he flats, we are in position, being the aggressor.

Dont see many benefits to flatting here at all.

Not saying that folding is wrong mind, it could be right, just does not feel to be the right thing to do here as there is a dynamic and history. Also we have position which given the way this game is playing is more important than normal.

How much is the 4-bet we are making?

[Bigfella42]

There is a danger you could out level yourself with K9. I know this as it can happen to me. If the flop comes K high are you prepared to go all the way with it? The aggro players have a way of getting people to stack off light and there is a danger he may be getting to you. I"d rather have suited connectors here.

Fold with a sigh imo.

PS - notice how I have become more cautious now that i"ve turned 50???  

[AAroddersAA]

There is a danger you could out level yourself with K9. I know this as it can happen to me. If the flop comes K high are you prepared to go all the way with it? The aggro players have a way of getting people to stack off light and there is a danger he may be getting to you. I"d rather have suited connectors here.

Fold with a sigh imo.

PS - notice how I have become more cautious now that i"ve turned 50???  

If the flop comes King High Vs this guy I am ready to stack off. Does this make a difference at this stage, will post the next actions later.

[AMRN]

Not sure why the only option being considered is a 4bet here. Why not call, and play a headsup pot in position?   On the button is the only time we get to play a flop against this guy in position - why waste that by 4bet bluffing pre?  Save the 4bet for when we are out of position, and we want to get rid of him preflop.

Call, and outplay him post-flop.

[Fatcatstu]

I have spoken to Rodders about this and said the more i think about it, the more i dont like the 4 bet tbh.

I think that most of the time, he flats, then donks out on the flop. If im going to war with him, i want more than K9 to do it with.

Cant believe im going to do this...

I think my range would be

88+, 10Js+, AJ+

Just feels like we need a hand strong enough to stand up to, what i believe will be the inevitable aggression on the flop, and hands that play well on alot of boards.

[TheSnapper]

Positional stats would be helpful, specifically villains 3b% for SB & BB also your PFR%  for btn, co & hj.

I suspect you are raising about 25% on the btn though in an antes game stealing would constitute a large % of your winrate so you should be looking to play  up to a  34% range and show a straight profit, this is obviously largely dependent on the tendencies of  players in the blinds so your thoughts on moving table are spot on.

Coping with liberal 3b"ing from the blinds is a crucial skill to master if you have any notion of moving up in stakes.

"I have not yet seen how he reacts to a 4 bet"

There is only one way to find out!

Being 250 bb"s deep does add a dimension but I think you give villain too much credit thus far. Since we haven"t 4b yet we really can"t tell how villain will react so assigning credit for fully understanding how to exploit the dynamic is somewhat premature.

You could 4b to $2.15, villain will fold enough for this to show immediate profit, if villain calls, we have positional advantage and being this deep increases that advantage considerably.

[AMRN]

Positional stats would be helpful, specifically villains 3b% for SB & BB also your PFR%  for btn, co & hj.

I suspect you are raising about 25% on the btn though in an antes game stealing would constitute a large % of your winrate so you should be looking to play  up to a  34% range and show a straight profit, this is obviously largely dependent on the tendencies of  players in the blinds so your thoughts on moving table are spot on.

Coping with liberal 3b"ing from the blinds is a crucial skill to master if you have any notion of moving up in stakes.

"I have not yet seen how he reacts to a 4 bet"

There is only one way to find out!

Being 250 bb"s deep does add a dimension but I think you give villain too much credit thus far. Since we haven"t 4b yet we really can"t tell how villain will react so assigning credit for fully understanding how to exploit the dynamic is somewhat premature.

You could 4b to $2.15, villain will fold enough for this to show immediate profit, if villain calls, we have positional advantage and being this deep increases that advantage considerably.

Carlsberg don"t do forum posts, but if they did.....

[AAroddersAA]

Lot"s of good replies of course, so let"s move this one on, we are sat 250 BB.

fwiw my PFR OTB is 35% (RFI is 53%) with a fold to 3-bet of 54%, Sample size is small though.

PokerStars Hand #96817013101:  Hold'em No Limit ($0.05/$0.10 USD) - 2013/04/07 20:22:35 WET [2013/04/07 15:22:35 ET]
Table "Cydonia II" 6-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: Semmylina ($28.28 in chips)
Seat 2: SerialKil|3r ($24.25 in chips)
Seat 3: eddila ($25 in chips)
Seat 4: xsnowstorm ($25.55 in chips)
Seat 5: 33teetwo33 ($25.59 in chips)
Seat 6: ILOVESIMONE ($31.66 in chips)
ILOVESIMONE: posts small blind $0.05
Semmylina: posts big blind $0.10
Semmylina: posts the ante $0.02
SerialKil|3r: posts the ante $0.02
eddila: posts the ante $0.02
xsnowstorm: posts the ante $0.02
33teetwo33: posts the ante $0.02
ILOVESIMONE: posts the ante $0.02
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to 33teetwo33 [ ]
SerialKil|3r: folds
eddila: folds
xsnowstorm: folds
33teetwo33: raises $0.20 to $0.30
ILOVESIMONE: raises $0.70 to $1
Semmylina: folds
33teetwo33: raises $1.40 to $2.40
ILOVESIMONE: calls $1.40
*** FLOP *** [ ]
ILOVESIMONE: checks
33teetwo33:

What are you doing?? Why?? What plan do you have??

I believe this guy could easily be checking to check raise me, is this a reasonable assumption or should I give him credit that he has just seen me 4 bet and know that I am meant to have a hand much bigger than I actually do?

My c-bet flop stat is only 60% in this table btw

[noble1]

Given the frequency of his 3-bets, especially against me in this specific spot I reckon to be ahead of his range with K9 and I am in position. Don"t think I am ever folding here.

in general it would be a better idea to 4bet polarised deep with Ax Kx rags simply for the value of the blocker, plus you set up a dynamic versus him.

How much is the 4-bet we are making?

well you think he"s mega wide so make it as big as possible, figure out the EV of 4 betting this player at various sizings. The 4bet sizing you did is way to small, i"d guess he"d call virtually with the whole of his 3bet range, what do you think?
Taking into account the 86s example would it also be a reasonable assumption that if going to a flop you have some fold equity on your cbet, and if he calls you pretty much know where you stand?

If the flop comes King High Vs this guy I am ready to stack off. Does this make a difference at this stage, will post the next actions later.

?? stack off, the examples you gave he played fairly passive, the 77 hand ok"ish considering the river card and the 86s he checked down on a ace flop. So what have you seen that suggests you can stack off on a king xx flop when he suddenly starts giving action? From those two hands what do you think his cbet strategy is Rodders and his tendencies?

Not sure why the only option being considered is a 4bet here. Why not call, and play a headsup pot in position?   On the button is the only time we get to play a flop against this guy in position - why waste that by 4bet bluffing pre?  Save the 4bet for when we are out of position, and we want to get rid of him preflop.

Call, and outplay him post-flop.

Don"t you want to dis-courage him 3betting liberally versus you? Calling is a option IP but i"d rather call JJ+ AK KQ A9s type hands where we dominate a ton of his range.. Also i"d want to get value with AA KK so 4betting polarised will at least set this up for future hands.

Lot"s of good replies of course, so let"s move this one on, we are sat 250 BB.

fwiw my PFR OTB is 35% (RFI is 53%) with a fold to 3-bet of 54%, Sample size is small though.

PokerStars Hand #96817013101:  Hold'em No Limit ($0.05/$0.10 USD) - 2013/04/07 20:22:35 WET [2013/04/07 15:22:35 ET]
Table "Cydonia II" 6-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: Semmylina ($28.28 in chips)
Seat 2: SerialKil|3r ($24.25 in chips)
Seat 3: eddila ($25 in chips)
Seat 4: xsnowstorm ($25.55 in chips)
Seat 5: 33teetwo33 ($25.59 in chips)
Seat 6: ILOVESIMONE ($31.66 in chips)
ILOVESIMONE: posts small blind $0.05
Semmylina: posts big blind $0.10
Semmylina: posts the ante $0.02
SerialKil|3r: posts the ante $0.02
eddila: posts the ante $0.02
xsnowstorm: posts the ante $0.02
33teetwo33: posts the ante $0.02
ILOVESIMONE: posts the ante $0.02
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to 33teetwo33 [ ]
SerialKil|3r: folds
eddila: folds
xsnowstorm: folds
33teetwo33: raises $0.20 to $0.30
ILOVESIMONE: raises $0.70 to $1
Semmylina: folds
33teetwo33: raises $1.40 to $2.40
ILOVESIMONE: calls $1.40
*** FLOP *** [ ]
ILOVESIMONE: checks
33teetwo33:

What are you doing?? Why?? What plan do you have??

I believe this guy could easily be checking to check raise me, is this a reasonable assumption or should I give him credit that he has just seen me 4 bet and know that I am meant to have a hand much bigger than I actually do?

My c-bet flop stat is only 60% in this table btw

NO its not a reasonable assumption

I don"t like your 4bet sizing Rodders, are you happy with it on reflection?
What range did you put him on to flat with?

Theory wise you can"t far wrong in poker if you determine a range for your opponent and figure out the best action for your hand/range [perceived and actual] but if it goes to showdown and they flip over something you never took into account, well now its time to be results oriented, you have to figure out where you went wrong in your assumptions for each street/decision point. [taking into account all the history and the opponents skill etc etc]

a really good player once said

being results oriented is a necessity to an extent if nothing else than for allowing your mind to detect patterns (every time he checks the turn and bets the river hes bluffing, type of thing), where as without the knowledge of being right or wrong it is harder to determine future actions as confidently.

[AAroddersAA]

Noble, you remain the best poster in this section mate, right to repond to some of your points.

Given that we are in control of the hand with position and the betting lead after the 4-bet do we need to make it bigger? We are doing this as we make more money long term by making it bigger correct? I did not have enough hands on him to have a fold to 4-bet stat but did know that he was not folding to many 3-bets so did expect him to call wide. I will have to have a better look at the hand to see if I think a bigger 4-bet would have been better (although you are most likely right on this). The 4-bet seemed right at the time and was not something I had considered until I just read your post.

His cbetting tendencies seemed to be that he was c-betting every flop where he had the betting lead and if he was checked too he would usually bet. I think there is a concern that he may be able to raise me with air here if he checks to me and I c-bet so I am wondering if playing this hand against this player is right even in position. I will not find a favourable flop that often and can easily end up getting outplayed here? Make sense or not? I do want to discourage him from 3-betting my button opens though so have to play back at some point right? Not sure.

I am really not sure if I went wrong in my thinking during this hand to be honest. I think I probably did, at this stage of the hand I am fairly happy with what I have done, although I accept that the 4-bet size could have been bad as I may well make more money by making it bigger.

Will hold off posting the next part as would like some more opinions yet.