DTD Monte Carlo Day 1a Online Hand

[Chipaccrual]

Here"s a hand from last nights DTD Monte Carlo Day 1a (Online)

Notes on the interested parties.  Seat 2, steady player had a bit of banter with another player in the chatbox, but not been involved in many hands.  Seat 6, serial min raiser.  Have bet back over top a few times from the blinds, got a couple through, folded a couple.


Seat 1   33,307   SB
Seat 2   49,218   BB
Seat 3   62,117   
Seat 4   82,371   
Seat 5   86,803   
Seat 6   78,253   
Seat 7   57,350 (CHIPACCRUAL)  
Seat 8   119,212   
Seat 9   60,810   

Blinds are 400/800/100



Seat 6 raises to 2,000
I call 2,000
Seat 2 (BB) calls 2,000


Pot = 6,900
FLOP -  


Seat 2 (BB) checks
Seat 6 bets 4,400
I call 4,400
Seat 2 (BB) calls 4,400

Pot = 20,100
TURN -  

Seat 2 (BB) bets 3,200
Seat 6 raises to 11,500


Action on me.  What are you doing ?

[Bigfella42]

What an interesting spot!

I think this is one of those pivotal moments you get in tournaments where you have to go with your read. The Villain has rased pre, c bet the flop and raised the turn. This could be an overpair and if he has two black kings, queens or jacks you are only 38% so you need to ask yourself if raising this particular player is going to push him off such a strong hand (would he fold one pair to a hefty raise?).

I don"t like flatting although others may disagree - if you miss on the river are you calling a 20k bet?

If he has a set, also possible, your in even worse shape at 25%.

A flush draw is unlikely and   is one of the few hands you are beating, apart from an outright bluff wich looks doubtful.

In addition we also have to think about seat 2 who hasn"t gone away yet and could be sat on a set himself.

At first glance my instinct was to say I"m not folding. I"ve got top pair, nut flush draw and a gutshot straight. The maths seems to say a fold is not terrible, and is probably the optimal play. I"m pretty sure I wouldn"t have folded though and would have been prepared to get it all in. But I think that would be a leak in the long term.

Look forward to hearing how this developed.

[deanp27]

interesting point in the hand is the BBs small donk bet (3k into 20k) which makes me unsure what to do and sway towards a fold. Am at work at the mo so will give it some thought later but really want to go all in as i hate folding.

Flop obv fine - pre can be a 3bet or a peel i suppose.

[AMRN]

There are arguments for all options, although I don"t like flatting with the SB still to act behind us.

For me, it"s either jam or a fold.......  question is, does the fact that it"s a £1k event rather than a $5 event influence the decision?   I suspect it might - if this were a $5 MTT, I reckon I would be jamming faster than a very fast thing..... but not so sure in this spot.  #scaredmoney

[dwh103]

Think it"s probably safe to assume you"re behind. If you"ve run extremely well you have 17 outs, or approx 35% to improve by the river.

Not knowing how many of your outs are live (I"d guess long run not much more than half your outs will be live), it"s probably a sigh fold. Seat 6 is trying to tell you he has an overpair at the very least, add Seat 2 as a wildcard (turned straight, weirdly played set, draw trying to set its own price - who knows?).

[pokerpops]

The betting suggests we"re behind but it"s difficult to see precisely what we could be behind to here.

Give BB a mix of sets of fours and sixes, assuming he 3bets tens pre(?) plus some very very small chance of a straight? He"d have to have called to hit a gutshot to make it so it could only ever be diamonds and we have the which limits him to 36dd
Seat 6 has the same set possibilities plus A10 not diamonds and over pairs

Take out the pairing cards and we"re left with seven diamond outs and maybe three threes? What are the other outs anyone?


Raise flop and fold to a re raise, get to the end as cheap as possible/ fold on turn I think

[TheSnapper]

Immediately thought tptk, nfd and gssd, never folding

making some assumptions to do some maths...

SB always folds
Seat 6 never folds
Seat 6 range of JJ+,55-44,ATs,A3s,KTs,ATo,A3o,KTo


we need to put 55350 in to win ~122k so we need ~45% to break even
versus the above range we have 43% but that goes up considerably to 55% if seat 6 can have QT & JT though I do think that"s unlikely.

Surprised but I think folding is correct.

[MintTrav]

Isn"t there more to these tournament questions than just the maths of the hand?

We are a bit off the pace mid-tournament, though not critically. If we get it in and they fold, we are back up to speed with the field. Get in and win, we are well set. Get in and lose and our tournament is broken. If we fold now, we are pretty much as we were, off the pace. Flat call and miss and we drifting a bit far behind. Don"t we need to consider this as well as the percentages?

[deanp27]

might also be worth considering its a re-entry tournament and that a decent % of the online runners might be flicking it in for another bullet if they lose.

I don"t think the guy raising the turn here has to be nutted, BB has donked out for like 1/6 pot so he may raise with a wider range which may mean he folds to a jam. I"m slightly worried about BB though, unless he is a donk.

What i do completely depends on what i have seen them do at the table during the tournament. Really tempted to jam and put in the chatbox "PLAYED IT LIKE A SET".

unfortunately though i think the chance of dominated flush draws being out there are fairly small. BB should never have diamonds unless he has 67/68/64dd after he overcalls flop and i imagine the OR might peel with hands like KQdd or the smaller diamond combos mentioned given he is getting an amazing price and you are still in the hand.

[TheSnapper]

Isn"t there more to these tournament questions than just the maths of the hand?

We are a bit off the pace mid-tournament, though not critically. If we get it in and they fold, we are back up to speed with the field. Get in and win, we are well set. Get in and lose and our tournament is broken. If we fold now, we are pretty much as we were, off the pace. Flat call and miss and we drifting a bit far behind. Don"t we need to consider this as well as the percentages?

Of course there"s more John, more maths

Is this a straight satellite or an online day 1 from which you bring your chipstack into day 2?

[Chipaccrual]

Isn"t there more to these tournament questions than just the maths of the hand?

We are a bit off the pace mid-tournament, though not critically. If we get it in and they fold, we are back up to speed with the field. Get in and win, we are well set. Get in and lose and our tournament is broken. If we fold now, we are pretty much as we were, off the pace. Flat call and miss and we drifting a bit far behind. Don"t we need to consider this as well as the percentages?

Of course there"s more John, more maths

Is this a straight satellite or an online day 1 from which you bring your chipstack into day 2?

It"s the latter Brendan.  I"ll post up the next bit later this evening  

[Chipaccrual]

Aplogies for the delay.

Well, I folded.  


However, the BB calls and the two players see a river of



Big Blind checks, S6 goes allin and BB calls.


So, what do you reckon they had ?

[MintTrav]

So, what do you reckon they had ?

6,500 of your chips.

[Bigfella42]

Please just tell us! Did one of them have a ten and a jack?

[Chipaccrual]

Please just tell us! Did one of them have a ten and a jack?

BB had  

S6 had