The stats of 32/28/18 are indicating an aggressive opponent (likely to be a thinking player), the obvious question here has already been asked, how many hands is this over. Noble, I get what you are saying about looking at the HUD stats, fold to 4-bet etc and what we know about our opponent but unless we have a lot of hands on the player in question then these stats are not likely to be very useful. VP$IP & PFR become accurate pretty quickly. We also seem to be at the stage of the tournament where it is an ideal time to pick up chips with small raises. So if he has been at the table only during recent levels I think the stats are accurate. I would still look at fold to 4-bet but not attach that much significance to it.
I don"t like calling here, we are making the hand really hard to play post flop and allow ourselves to make lots of mistakes even in position. If we don"t flop a pair we are going to have to fold and even when we do flop top pair we are still behind to a lot of the hands he continues with against us so there are reverse implied odds here.
I want to just fold and move on as I have only lost 4K and given that it is likely to be +cEV online to make some good min raises and fold to a 3bet most of the time in these spots I am normally happy enough to do that. The problem we have is that our opponent seems to be exploiting us as the OP stats he has three bet us "a few" times. A few times is a lot, and the three bet % is very high, it"s a great 4-bet bluff spot for sure. A 4-bet to about 21K feels about right, people just do not 5-bet bluff with no good reason to do it (and there rarely is one). In fact people generally don"t 4-bet bluff so the villain has no reason to think we are doing so based on the OP and can only continue with the top of his range. JJ+ and AK (so about 3% of hands).
By my calculations we have 18800 in the pot and we need to risk 17K to try and win it. If we give him a 3-Bet% of say 10% and think he can only continue with the hands mentioned above then we are +EV. We are basically saying he will fold 70% of the time and shove/call 30% of the time, the real figure is probably closer to 60/40 taking into account loose peels and 5-bet bluffs but this is still +cEV.
Also fwiw people keep saying this is a $5 MTT, it"s a $5 rebuy which does make a difference.
will the gain or loss from the 4bet bluff make any difference?
No
But the OP suggests that this is not an isolated 3-bet (if it was we should just fold) and out opponent is not allowing us to pick up the chips we want too at this stage, we need to defend against that.
