Live spot v Rodders from Coventry

[AAroddersAA]

Aren"t there ante"s in play at this level?

Yes, why?  
...

People talking about a re-shoving stack in terms of 30 bigs. If there are antes then it should be M and I would suspect it would make it easily the right size stack for a reshove. Not that I would in this spot because I don"t think it would give enough fold equity against an utg raise; but the ante"s definitely change the maths and nobody seemed to be taking them in to account.

The antes were 100 and I think we were 9 handed

pot was 4600 When Brian had to make his first action and he has circa 32K behind. By shoving he increases his stack by 15%. I would want a 20% increase before shove usually as you are unlikely to be getting exploited by raise/folding here.

If the UTG raiser has a PFR range of 66+, AT+ and KJ+ and will call a shove with AQ+ and TT+ (This would be considered loose for an APAT event and I would consider most APAT players to have a tighter range than this) then the shove gets through uncalled about 58% of the time. So 58% of the time you just win the 4600 that was in the pot.

If you get called which will happen 42% of the time then

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Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

636,977,088  games     0.000 secs   127,395,417,600  games/sec

Board:
Dead:  

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    62.794%     62.60%    00.19%         398772156      1210188.00   { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1:    37.206%     37.02%    00.19%         235784556      1210188.00   { 77 }

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So that mean"s

About 26.4% of the time we lose our stack of 32K and are out

About 15.6% of the time we win the pot of 36600 chips and are massive

About 58% of the time we win 4600

=266800 + 570960 - 844800 = -7040

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So against that raising range the shove is marginally -cEV. However for this event I have given our PFR a fairly loose range. There are not a huge number of players who will be opening wider than this on a regular basis from EP. So in MOST spots you should set mine. In this spot? Maybe a shove is not so bad.

We know that UTG has a wider range than the above, or at least he seems too and he is very active from all positions.

He has already gone after our blind with K4o.

Is calling and check folding the flop (which seems to generally be out plan) going to make him want to give up and leave us alone?

If we make a standard 3-bet he is capable of seeing that it is a decent spot to do so and 4-betting light

I am certainly not telling anybody the answer"s on this one to that but this might help the thread. There are some really good responses in the thread but there is a lot more to this hand than people are looking at, it is a really good hand to analyse.

[duke3016]

Maybe a shove is not so bad.

[George2Loose]

People are really complicating this spot. It"s really not that tough imo.

We are calling 1bb out of a 30bb stack. Even if we are purely set mining, I"m happy to move on and play my 29bb stack and c/f my hand on a ton of flops even if sometimes we have the best hand.

3 bet folding is just bad. We don"t even have any blockers in our hand and despite Rodders calling this an easy spot for you to exploit by 4 betting light I really don"t see this happening. All we are doing is turning a hand with some reasonable value into a very expensive and costly bluff.

[amcgrath1uk]

Call of the initial bet, let the flop play itself. Don"t think there"s much more needed here.

The only time I"d ever think about a reraise is bubble time..

[George2Loose]

Also just to tackle those saying let"s shove.

You"re making this a really easy decision for your opponent here as I assume you just 3 bet your strong value hands (AA-QQ, AK) so when you jam essentially you"re turning your hand face up of sorts (ie it"s prob AK or a medium pair)

[Fatcatstu]

Also just to tackle those saying let"s shove.

You"re making this a really easy decision for your opponent here as I assume you just 3 bet your strong value hands (AA-QQ, AK) so when you jam essentially you"re turning your hand face up of sorts (ie it"s prob AK or a medium pair)

All of this.

[duke3016]

Also just to tackle those saying let"s shove.

You"re making this a really easy decision for your opponent here as I assume you just 3 bet your strong value hands (AA-QQ, AK) so when you jam essentially you"re turning your hand face up of sorts (ie it"s prob AK or a medium pair)

It might be only me advocating a shove, but am I not reversing that thought and making my opponent think the same way when his tournament is on the line, or am I just being silly. No real need to answer that........

[George2Loose]

Also just to tackle those saying let"s shove.

You"re making this a really easy decision for your opponent here as I assume you just 3 bet your strong value hands (AA-QQ, AK) so when you jam essentially you"re turning your hand face up of sorts (ie it"s prob AK or a medium pair)

It might be only me advocating a shove, but am I not reversing that thought and making my opponent think the same way when his tournament is on the line, or am I just being silly. No real need to answer that........

Hey Ger- what would you do with Aces here?

[AAroddersAA]

People are really complicating this spot. It"s really not that tough imo.

We are calling 1bb out of a 30bb stack. Even if we are purely set mining, I"m happy to move on and play my 29bb stack and c/f my hand on a ton of flops even if sometimes we have the best hand.

3 bet folding is just bad. We don"t even have any blockers in our hand and despite Rodders calling this an easy spot for you to exploit by 4 betting light I really don"t see this happening. All we are doing is turning a hand with some reasonable value into a very expensive and costly bluff.

Yeah this is a good point.

I do agree that flat calling with 77 is the best play, it is +EV and does not risk your tournament life.

Just don"t hate the 3-bet either as I can still see a case for it, and after looking at this thread can see a case for the shove which surprises me. I would make the 3-bet slightly bigger though. It gets loads of folds. I suppose it"s hard to argue against calling is still better though as even if my range is larger it is unlikely that the raise is making you more chips long term.

What do people do with TT here?

[TheSnapper]

Wow! Snapper you have completely dissected my answer. Have I upset you? (with my "miss an opportunity" comment?) Or maybe you just generally disagree with my points of view on this hand?
Either way you have asked me to give a more detailed explanation and I will do my best, in my humble opinion.
It could be quite a long response lol  

We don"t know each other but when I have ever read your posts previously on poker strategy I seem to remember that I generally agreed with your views and you know what you"re talking about, so I am surprised that you fundamentally disagree with my thoughts here.

Sorry you took it that way Craig, I"m an anal focker and dissecting is what I do, god love me.  

I"m not upset at all, I simply responded to the points you made explaining why I disagree. This is how we learn and why posting on these threads is helpful to us, we put ourselves out there so as our opinions can be challenged, if you counter my opinions you challenge both our understanding, win win.

[Fatcatstu]

Quick question.

Why 4 bet him for half his stack? If he 5 bet shoves you cant like your AK that much but you have priced yourself in? Is a shove from you not a better option? Put the choice onto Brian?

Probably a stupid question, and this comes from someone who donated half my stack to Andy Cairns in a similar situation.

[Zozzy]

Snapper I think the easiest way for me to respond to your questions is by quoting each one and trying to explain my way of thinking.

Would love to hear a more detailed description of the merits of this opportunity?

We are up against an opponent who is one of the favorites to win the tournament. His presence at the table is restricting how many orphan pots we pick up. Set mining in this situation even without the correct odds/implied odds is acceptable because busting this opponent brings a new meaning to implied.

We don"t always need to have 7/1 odds anyway in mtts to set mine. (I think cash game play is different but that"s another subject).

This is totally incorrect.
Set mining is an implied odds equation,  a basic poker fundamental.  The bottom line is that we hit a set only once every  ~9 times, so to breakeven,  we need to win ~8 times the bet when we do hit our set!

We are going to have to agree to disagree on this one. I completely disagree with the concept that maths is the be all and end all in multi-table tourneys.
We don"t differ much in our calculation % for hitting the set (1 in 8, 1 in 9 approx) but my argument is that this is set in stone for winning Cash Game strategy but in MTTs there is more to consider,  the chance to bust a dangerous opponent or create a "don"t F--k with me image for instance.

Regarding your other points. I agree with you that there shouldn"t be a "one size fits all strategy". Each shoving spot should be judged on it"s own merits.

I have been giving my views in general terms.
In this specific hand we are discussing I don"t advocate reraising. Flatting pre and see a flop ftw.
Shoving here is giving the ep raiser a simple decision based on his own hand strength.

On paper the 3bet pre is incorrect, but he fact that rodders is the opponent does play a part in the decision.

Not sure of your point here really, let"s assume that the decision we face is whether we 3b bluff , let"s also assume that 3b bluffing is not our default  play versus an unknown utg open raise.
how does  "the  fact that rodders is the opponent" impact on us choosing an option other than our default  decision?

I meant that because we have previous history with this opponent we can put him on a wider preflop stealing range even in early pos.

[duke3016]

Also just to tackle those saying let"s shove.

You"re making this a really easy decision for your opponent here as I assume you just 3 bet your strong value hands (AA-QQ, AK) so when you jam essentially you"re turning your hand face up of sorts (ie it"s prob AK or a medium pair)

It might be only me advocating a shove, but am I not reversing that thought and making my opponent think the same way when his tournament is on the line, or am I just being silly. No real need to answer that........

Hey Ger- what would you do with Aces here?

Funnily enough George the very same thing...

[George2Loose]

You"d reshove 30 bigs with aces or just re raise? Would u not be worried about not getting value making a reshove that big?

[Jon MW]

You"d reshove 30 bigs with aces or just re raise? Would u not be worried about not getting value making a reshove that big?

I think Rodders" maths above looks "about right" and illustrates why I wouldn"t re-shove in this exact spot - but also why it isn"t a terrible idea as it only takes a tiny amount extra fold equity to make it profitable and a lot of people bottle it when they are making a decision for their tournament life. I would definitely re-shove in some very similar hands - and in terms of this exact question - definitely including premium starting hands.

It"s always a good idea to make your opponents make a mistake. If you have got something like a mid pair then the mistake can be to fold when they "should" call - if it"s a premium starting hand then the mistake is to call when they "should" fold. If they know you could be re-shoving with AA then it makes their decision harder (always a good thing) and if they don"t know then it makes it more likely they"ll make a mistake when you do it with a premium starting hand.

The potential missing value for the occasional hand isn"t likely to be as significant as the potential to win the big (>50bb) pot.