Line Check

[TheSnapper]

is this a turbo structure?

[TheSnapper]

OPR/Sharkscope shows he has played about 2500 sitngo"s on Pokerstars and that he is quite regular at the $2.50 180 games currently but does not rate him as that great of a player.

That"s not the impression I get from his OPR, seems pretty decent to me. Villain has lots of 1-3 finishes and 11% for itm which suggests an aggro play for top spot style.

[s4ooter]

Morning Dann, don"t entirely agree with this post mate.

I agree that some people (some of the better regs for example) will have a wide range for doing this but not too many are doing this against a stack that can do them real damage.

I don"t really agree that there are a lot of people doing this with a 14% range, there are some but you need some info to suggest they are doing this before you can even consider it, we do not have that in this case, we do not even have him noted as a reg (and I would need more than that I THINK). 14% is something like:-

44+,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KJo+,QJo

Against that range we are 50/50 (so that would be an easy call as pot odds are massive). The problem is I don"t think that too many players are really shoving this light. Normally when you call off they will show you a much narrower range of hands.

Even a player with a jamming range of 10% (AA-88, AKo, AKs, AQo, AQs) you profit +t313 so its a call.

This is not a 10% range (it"s about 5%) and it is just not profitable chip wise to call against this range. I have not run the numbers but we are not getting the near 2/1 that we need. Chip wise it is a big -EV call against this range.

10% is probably more like 77+,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KJo+ we are 45% against this range this is very marginal chip EV wise and I might call though as it is just about +cEV and I am not yet at the stage where my tournament life is vital. This is pretty marginal and I would like to hear thoughts on it.

If his range is 88+ and AQ+ though we are only about 36% making it a cEV fold.

Regs will call off very wide vs regs, but regs also know that weaker players (non-regs) play these like std MMTs and R/F too much.  You find they open 14% of hands but only call a shove with 5-6%.

Good point, but we just can"t assume this kind of thinking from a player we have two hands on?

OPR/Sharkscope shows he has played about 2500 sitngo"s on Pokerstars and that he is quite regular at the $2.50 180 games currently but does not rate him as that great of a player.

From my experience ( i used to get coaching/backing in them a while back) good villians will shove extremely wide due to your perceived calling range and stack sizes.
If he doesnt have you tagged as a reg, then he will doing this very wide whereas if you are a known villian to him its very narrow.

In 2/180s, you need to be making adjustments all the time, my main question to you is why raise to 500 pre??  I was always told that once the blinds get to 50/100 and stack sizes are so shallow, to not "waste chips" and just minraise as a large % of the field are now shove/fold mode only??  I know in this instance its only 100 chips, but it makes a huge difference in these top heavy fields.  And villians only have the same option (ie shove or fold) whether you 2x or 2.5x

Oh how i miss 2/180s

[KarmaDope]

Dann - it is a minraise pre by Steve.

And please dont go back to them - makes my games harder

[s4ooter]

Dann - it is a minraise pre by Steve.

And please dont go back to them - makes my games harder

FML i cant even read properly....i was reading it via ICMizer...well discount all my calculations so far as i have inputted HH in wrong.

I am a f*cking hero!!! haha

I couldnt go back....no time for the 500 game sessions.  Although i do miss 24tbling.  Saying that, Without TableNinja it would be impossible

[JamieCarra]

Snaps call

Most people will have a range for reshoving this sort of this stack size that"s heavily weighted towars small pairs which we crush.  Something like JJ-22,ATs+,AJo+ seems reasonable enough (could possibly even add in KQ) which gives us ~57%

[AAroddersAA]

is this a turbo structure?

Yes it is 5 minute blinds so not massive amounts of time to find that better spot everybody always wants ;-)

Pretty unsure with this one, initially I thought the fold was probably wrong but a bit less sure now. This is quite an important spot to get right in these do those of you who plays these games think that an unknown"s shoving range is usually going to be wide enough to make this call and what is your calling range here.

Hmm this one is pretty close I think, looking through my tracker 3-bet shoves seem heavily weighted towards value.

[TheSnapper]

is this a turbo structure?

Yes it is 5 minute blinds so not massive amounts of time to find that better spot everybody always wants ;-)

Pretty unsure with this one, initially I thought the fold was probably wrong but a bit less sure now. This is quite an important spot to get right in these do those of you who plays these games think that an unknown"s shoving range is usually going to be wide enough to make this call and what is your calling range here.

Hmm this one is pretty close I think, looking through my tracker 3-bet shoves seem heavily weighted towards value.

The turbo aspect changes the dynamic totally. Did I miss that somewhere or was it not mentioned?

Either way, the decision really comes down to villains range for jamming. It"s all very well with additional information on villain to advocate a call but at decision time Rodders faced a 26bb jam from a complete unknown.

Can calling as a default response here be good strategy?

[AAroddersAA]

is this a turbo structure?

Can calling as a default response here be good strategy?

Probably not. I am certainly not Sharkscoping people whilst I am playing, apart from the fact it is against the rules I multi-table and the tables change on these so often you just can"t do it. I have asked some other people about this spot and the general consensus was a fold is better, a very close spot (certainly not an easy fold) but just about a fold.

[Charlie44]

I appreciate that I am much less knowledgeable than you and others here to comment but I have been following the debate with interest and here are my thoughts for what they are worth.

In this situation you will be left with 5927 chips if you fold. You will have 12979 if you call and win. So with true pot odds for chips EV you need to have 5927/12979 = 45.7% chance or better to make it a profitable call. If this was near the beginning of the tourney and you had your starting stack this assessment would be appropriate. Perhaps you feel you had an edge on the tourney and you may therefore want 50% chance to call.

However IMO whilst you are nowhere near the final table or the prize money you have increased your stack fourfold and there must be some significant ICM effect. So +EV chips does not equal +EV prize money. Doubling your chips does not mean doubling your expected prize money. . At a guess 5927 chips might equate to expected prize money of about $9.  12,979 chips would of course not give proportionally more expected prize money- 12979/5927*9 = $19.70. I would guess it would be about 16$. So if you fold you would expect to win 9$, if you call and win you would expect to win 16$. You now need at least 9/16 = 56.25%. Add on a small edge and to be +EV prize money you may want 60% chance of winning not 50% as per chips EV.

Using Pokerstove you get only 70% against a random hand, and you will only get required 60% against his range if he is pushing with 50% of his range which is 33+,A2+ K2+,Q2s+,J4s+,T6s+,96s+. I think he might be pushing light here in the BB with only 1 oppo. left, but no evidence to suggest this light. Its a fold for me.

I appreciate that the numbers in para. 3 are estimated but I think give a reasonable assessment of calling requirements. The ICM programmes I have seen only give single table situations and shoving range rather than reshoving ranges. If anybody has access to programmes that calculate above I"d be happy to be corrected.  

[TheSnapper]

nice post Charlie.

This is not an ICM spot and we are not even close to that stage yet. ICM considers your equity share of the prize pool and often in ICM spots the big winners in an all-in situation are those not involved the hand.

Being pedantic now but more so you notice where you erred, we need 44% to break even on a call.....

amount to call / ( pot + amount to call )*100

5927 / (7527 + 5927)*100 = 44.05%

[Charlie44]

nice post Charlie.

This is not an ICM spot and we are not even close to that stage yet. ICM considers your equity share of the prize pool and often in ICM spots the big winners in an all-in situation are those not involved the hand.

Being pedantic now but more so you notice where you erred, we need 44% to break even on a call.....

amount to call / ( pot + amount to call )*100

5927 / (7527 + 5927)*100 = 44.05%

Thanks for your feedback - I appreciate your comments. Yes of course my calc. is wrong - I forgot the antes.   I make it relevant pot if calls now - 2 x initial stack of hero = 6427*2 = 12854 + small blind (125) + antes of other players (175) = 13154. Amount to call 6427 - 500 - 25 = 5902.  So break even for chips+ ev is 5902/13154 = 44.8% . As you say differences so immaterial as to be irrelevant.

I take your point about ICM. I appreciate that the traditional thinking applies when you get very close to bubble or at during the subsequent prize stages. Avoiding big all ins without premium hands and climbing the ladder can be a good strategy. However in my opinion these considerations should be taken into account at an earlier stage when you have built up a significant stack compared to your starting stack.

Consider an extreme situation - you are at a similar stage of the tourney with 65 players left where you and hero each have 1/3 of total chips in play each and everybody else has close to starting stack (told you it was extreme!!). Surely you don"t take a 45% shot here. That"s because your expected prize money is very significant and would not be even close to doubling if you called and won the hand. The actual scenario is of course nowhere near this situation. All I am saying is with chips + ev you need about 45% chance to call, Prize money +ev, whilst hard to quantify, IMO you need significantly more than that to call.