Two spots with Ace King

[mporter123]

The small sizing on the flop & turn can be weak hands betting for thin value or milking bets with a set, not that many sets in his range though. Versus your weak line either are plausible though I suspect with a set villain may bet slightly more to aim for a river spr of 1 or less.

I suspect an opening range of AA-77,AKo-AJo,KQo,AKs-ATs,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs = 11%, would you agree?

I would be surprised if he was opening that wide. Would probably take out these - KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs which I think he folds pre and add in some more pairs. Close enough though.

Any thoughts on the turn in hand 2?

[AAroddersAA]

Hand One

We are only about 28BB deep here. OK I don"t mind the flat call preflop. Given his stats and no other significant reads I would give him an opening range of something like this:-

66+,AJs+,KJs+,QJs,AJo+,KQo

That is not perfect but will be close enough for this. There could be more pairs in there maybe. Do we have a fold to 3-bet stat on him although it does not seem worth stealing the pot here, if we 3-bet it is mainly for value anyway but if I 3-bet I want to pick up a few folds along the way as I usually miss the flop here and will be OOP. On the other hand if I 3-bet and hit I have a better chance of getting stacks in with TPTK. I think I like a 3-bet slightly more but flat calling is fine.

From my experience on Pokerstars a lot of players will raise bigger than a min with AA or KK so I think they are less likely, although not impossible.

So we have a pot of 360 going to the flop. The flop is very good for our hand as unless he has AA (which is very unlikely due to the raise size and the fact he can only have one AA combo anyway) or 88 we pretty much should be ahead. I guess a set of fours is not impossible either, just again less likely.

He bets 187 which is basically half of the pot. This does not scream as a value bet to me I would expect him to check back hands like 99-KK and some of his aces most of the time. I think he is c-betting here and would call. Pot is 734.

The turn is a total blank and should pretty much never improve his hand. He again bets pretty small and I would call again I think as the hands he can have are pretty marginal. Any thoughts on raising the turn?

River has not really changed anything pot is 1630 and he has 1395 left behind. Most of his range is checking behind here anyway but some of it might well call a lead. I don"t like any of our options.

Checking means that a large part of his range checks behind. Most pairs and worse aces probably do this.

Betting like 400 means I have to fold if he shoves as I can"t be winning hardly ever. You do NOT have to call in this spot as you are pretty much ALWAYS losing whatever pot odds you have. I don"t think he bluffs very often in this spot, nobody does.

Hands that might call a little blocker bet:- AJ+, KK-TT?

Hands that just fold:- Air and maybe some pairs

Hands that should raise = sets, not really any viable two pair combos

There are a lot of pair type hands and aces that we beat that will call about 400 OTR than combos of air that are going to bluff so I guess I go with that. Combo that call a small bet but should check behind if we check:-

AQ 8 combos
AJ 8 Combos
KK 6 Combos
QQ 6 Combos
JJ 6 Combos
TT 6 Combos

AQ and AJ might bet the river to be fair but the others don"t. I don"t see a decent player bluffing to often on the river either. It"s gets called off far too often by most players.

Conclusion - Bet about 400 and fold to a raise.

Will post thoughts on Hand Two later.

[TheSnapper]

The small sizing on the flop & turn can be weak hands betting for thin value or milking bets with a set, not that many sets in his range though. Versus your weak line either are plausible though I suspect with a set villain may bet slightly more to aim for a river spr of 1 or less.

I suspect an opening range of AA-77,AKo-AJo,KQo,AKs-ATs,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs = 11%, would you agree?

I would be surprised if he was opening that wide. Would probably take out these - KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs which I think he folds pre and add in some more pairs. Close enough though.

Any thoughts on the turn in hand 2?

Please ignore all of the strike through comment, came to those conclusions using a mix & match from both hands

[TheSnapper]

Checking means that a large part of his range checks behind. Most pairs and worse aces probably do this.

Betting like 400 means I have to fold if he shoves as I can"t be winning hardly ever. You do NOT have to call in this spot as you are pretty much ALWAYS losing whatever pot odds you have. I don"t think he bluffs very often in this spot, nobody does.

Hands that might call a little blocker bet:- AJ+, KK-TT?

Hands that just fold:- Air and maybe some pairs

Hands that should raise = sets, not really any viable two pair combos

There are a lot of pair type hands and aces that we beat that will call about 400 OTR than combos of air that are going to bluff so I guess I go with that. Combo that call a small bet but should check behind if we check:-

AQ 8 combos
AJ 8 Combos
KK 6 Combos
QQ 6 Combos
JJ 6 Combos
TT 6 Combos

AQ and AJ might bet the river to be fair but the others don"t. I don"t see a decent player bluffing to often on the river either. It"s gets called off far too often by most players.

Conclusion - Bet about 400 and fold to a raise.

Agree with all of this logic, but not sure if villain barrels the turn with 99-KK? Villain is said to be a good player and on the very dry turn betting with those hands would be hugely -EV?

So now villains river range looks more like....

AA,88,AKo-AJo,AKs-ATs,7h6h,7c6c, just threw in two combos of 76s as a random possibility?

76s  2 combos
AA,88 4 combos

for a total of 6 combos that beat us or 20% of villains range. These definitely bet when checked to and raise when we lead.

AK 6 combos 20% of villains range.
We chop with these and villain likely bets when checked to, I suspect villain will raise our lead with this hand >0% but not enough to impact greatly on our decision.

Then we have the stuff we beat...

ATs-AQs, AJ,AQ,  18 combos and 53% of villains range.

Making the following assumptions.....

When we check...
Villain bets AK,AQ,AA,88 and 76s.
Villain always bets ai for 1395.
Villain checks back AT and AJ.

When we bet....
We bet 400.
We always fold to a raise.
Villain always flats with AK,AT-AQ.

EV for checking is +949
EV for betting is +1544

 

[AAroddersAA]

Checking means that a large part of his range checks behind. Most pairs and worse aces probably do this.

Betting like 400 means I have to fold if he shoves as I can"t be winning hardly ever. You do NOT have to call in this spot as you are pretty much ALWAYS losing whatever pot odds you have. I don"t think he bluffs very often in this spot, nobody does.

Hands that might call a little blocker bet:- AJ+, KK-TT?

Hands that just fold:- Air and maybe some pairs

Hands that should raise = sets, not really any viable two pair combos

There are a lot of pair type hands and aces that we beat that will call about 400 OTR than combos of air that are going to bluff so I guess I go with that. Combo that call a small bet but should check behind if we check:-

AQ 8 combos
AJ 8 Combos
KK 6 Combos
QQ 6 Combos
JJ 6 Combos
TT 6 Combos

AQ and AJ might bet the river to be fair but the others don"t. I don"t see a decent player bluffing to often on the river either. It"s gets called off far too often by most players.

Conclusion - Bet about 400 and fold to a raise.

Agree with all of this logic, but not sure if villain barrels the turn with 99-KK? Villain is said to be a good player and on the very dry turn betting with those hands would be hugely -EV?

So now villains river range looks more like....

AA,88,AKo-AJo,AKs-ATs,7h6h,7c6c, just threw in two combos of 76s as a random possibility?

76s  2 combos
AA,88 4 combos

for a total of 6 combos that beat us or 20% of villains range. These definitely bet when checked to and raise when we lead.

AK 6 combos 20% of villains range.
We chop with these and villain likely bets when checked to, I suspect villain will raise our lead with this hand >0% but not enough to impact greatly on our decision.

Then we have the stuff we beat...

ATs-AQs, AJ,AQ,  18 combos and 53% of villains range.

Making the following assumptions.....

When we check...
Villain bets AK,AQ,AA,88 and 76s.
Villain always bets ai for 1395.
Villain checks back AT and AJ.

When we bet....
We bet 400.
We always fold to a raise.
Villain always flats with AK,AT-AQ.

EV for checking is +949
EV for betting is +1544

 

Good post. I agree with you about him being less likely to bet KK to TT on the turn also

[Swinebag]

Not read any replies, sorry.

I Like the way you have played both hands so far with great pot control.

For both of them, I think you can get another check call in. However, bet folding the river ( I"m generally poor at this) may be a better option that gives most value as villains will check behind a lot that would call a river bet.