Anyone got a calculator ?

[Chipaccrual]

Here"s one for the mathematicians out there.

Horrible exit hand with 20 mins to go in last night"s GPS Day 1a.

3 way allin.  AA v JJ v AJ on a AJ6 flop.

I"m trying to get my head around the odds of top set vs middle set vs top two pair.

I"ve made a go at the calculation over on Blonde and will post it up here later, but does anyone else want to have a go at working out the odds ?

[AMRN]

As I said on the phone - just work out the equity calculation instead, it"s much easier..... I reckon it"s approx somewhere in the region of 100%/0%/0% on favour of the AA  

[Fatcatstu]

Expect you to donate 50p to charity for this one :p

[Chipaccrual]

Expect you to donate 50p to charity for this one :p

I felt a little sick for a few minutes, but got over it pretty quickly.

After all, we all know online poker is rigged and they didn"t want 7 of 18 to make it through to Day 2  


I thought it was 50p for a bad beat, surely this is just a cooler of epic proportions ?

[SirPercival]

188,353,440 : 1

[Chipaccrual]

188,353,440 : 1

You are more trusting in your source than I would be  

[TheSnapper]

188,353,440 : 1

Can you show the formula?

[MintTrav]

Easy fold.

[ian.ski309]

You can use this for two hands at a time :

http://www.thehendonmob.com/pokercalc/

[noble1]

if all cards were known, this leaves 46 cards unaccounted for..

C(46,3)=15180

the flop must include one of the remaining aces and one of the remaining jacks, leaving 44 cards

1*1*44

15180/44 = 345

so approx 344 to 1 against

unknown cards pre-flop i"d guess the easiest way of working the probability out then would be to multiply the odds 344/1 by the chance that two players at an X-handed table are dealt pocket pairs by the chance another player has one of each AND by the chance that they all see the flop...

[noble1]

http://people.math.sfu.ca/~alspach/index.html

[AceOnTheRiver]

Not quite the same % involved but I saw QQ v AK v AQ AIPF at DTD on Saturday.

Obv AQ wins

Live poker = Rigged!