Glad I"m not the only one considering folding AK in this spot. Is The Mach!ne going to isolate from MP with AQ or worse? However our M is less than 2 and we could treble up giving us a better shot at wining. When you get to a final table do you know how well you are finishing?
Giving ultrabeira a range of 22+,A8+,KJ+, QJ and Machine 66+, AQ+
JJ+ is a profitable calling range. Adding AKs or TT knocks you down to break even at best.
Dwh103 - with ultrabeira having an M of 3.6 I think his range is a lot wider. I know it might be old fashioned but Harrington"s first to valour approach is still widely used even at final tables by average players and better. I think that range probably more applies to The Mach!ne?
Before making my decision I would consider how the two/three players two my left are responding to blind stealing and how often mine are being attacked. I know the final table has just started but you should have some info on this from the previous tables. Does it look like they are trying to ladder up? This is a good reason to watch the other tables when you get down to the last two or three tables left. If I"m not getting much resistance then lets wait and pick of more of those blinds. Otherwise it"s marginal and I don"t think anyone is going to complain to much if you put it in.
A very tough one and I"d like to see more people"s opinions on this
Ultrabeira could indeed be wider - but if he"s a competent pushbotter it won"t be.
Even if you give ultrabeira any Ace, King, pair and broadway cards, then Machine 22+, A8+, KJ+, QJ - this only adds 99, TT and AK to a ICM breakeven calling range.
If the table was only calling with top 5% (99+, AQ), then ultrabeira can profitably jam that range according to an ICM pushbot. They definitely won"t be though, make it a 7.5% calling range (88, ATs+, AJo+, KQs) and whilst there some hands outside the original range of 22+,A8+,KJ+,QJ that are +$EV (i.e. suited Ace-wheel and some s/c), most of those show a <1% ROI.
Don"t think Machine"s range will be as wide as you think though, with 5 players still to act afterwards and massive ICM considerations on his part. Moral of the story being that ICM will constrain both Machine and Hero if making +$EV decisions is your game.