What do you bet on the river here.
I have been at the table with my opponent for 102 hands. I am playing 27/23 withg a Fold to 3-bet of 75%. I have opened a LOT of pots from late position and I expect my opponent to know this. He is playing 26/14 with a 3-bet of 5%.
PokerStars Hand #103467013373: Hold'em No Limit ($0.05/$0.10 USD) - 2013/08/31 12:52:53 WET [2013/08/31 7:52:53 ET]
Table "Sasin IV" 6-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 2: 33teetwo33 ($26.79 in chips)
Seat 3: Jhad.7 ($25 in chips)
Seat 4: patusialysy ($15.76 in chips)
Seat 5: yuben75 ($30.51 in chips)
Jhad.7: posts small blind $0.05
patusialysy: posts big blind $0.10
macic_tom: sits out
S.khmel: sits out
33teetwo33: posts the ante $0.02
Jhad.7: posts the ante $0.02
patusialysy: posts the ante $0.02
yuben75: posts the ante $0.02
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to 33teetwo33 [
]
yuben75: folds
33teetwo33: raises $0.20 to $0.30
Jhad.7: raises $0.80 to $1.10
patusialysy: folds
33teetwo33: calls $0.80
*** FLOP *** [
]
Jhad.7: bets $1.70
33teetwo33: calls $1.70
*** TURN *** [
] [
]
Jhad.7: checks
33teetwo33: bets $4
Jhad.7: calls $4
*** RIVER *** [
] [Ts]
Jhad.7: checks
33teetwo33: bets ?
On the flop I think he could have an overpair but is more likely to have an AK or AQ type hand. I should be able to get value from overpairs on the turn and river but if I raise AK and AQ will fold so I just call thinking that I can still get value from his AA, KK and QQ type hands and he might bet the turn with his air. I will have to raise the turn anyway but expect to get paid off by overpairs even though this looks really strong.
When the Q hits the turn and he checks I have to bet obviously to get value from bigger hands. The Queen hits his range so I think the bet of $4 is about right? Feel free to disagree. When he calls I am confident he has something.
When he checks to me on the river (which does not change much) I am almost never behind and he always has a hand that can call a bet, what bet would you make?
My notes on the villian are:-
"Will fold to double barrel on dangerous board"