To start with I think this video watched alone probably makes me look much better than I actually am. I am intentionally playing aggressive and it was working (as luck would have it). I will try and put a losing session together for some balance. If I do a 15 minute session each morning next week I should get a losing one quite quickly I would think. That might be easier for people to critique as when you see people winning pot after pot it is quite easy to think they are just playing amazing which is unlikely to be the case usually. I would like to do it without zoom to be honest but as I am limited to 15 minutes zoom gives me a decent number of hands to show.
As far as the hand where I play the K5 from the cut off goes. I obviously raise intending to steal the blinds. When the button calls me I think he often has a range of pairs, Broadway cards and some suited connectors/Ax hands. The flop looks good to continue on as there is not a lot he can have. He can have diamonds some of the time. I think he has a ten or a middle pair such as 77 or 88 quite a lot. I think the flush draw would often raise, although he can call on the flop. Most of the time people seem to be raising flush draws on the flop though.
I thought the
is actually a good card for us to bet again, even though it will sometime hit him. We are betting $1 to win $1.50 which is going to be enough. We need to win the pot 34% of the time to break even. The Jack hits my range quite well and changes quite a lot. It puts another overcard out to the mid pairs in his range and completes a possible flush. Quite often this bet will be enough to make him fold a lot of the tens in his range as they now lose to a lot of hands I would have bet the flop with (I know he shouldn"t, especially against me, but people often will). The only hands that will really continue are flopped monsters like sets and flush draws. I suppose the
can also continue but I doubt he has this in his range enough of the time to stop him calling.
Hands that could have called the flop
33 - 2 Combos
66 - 2 Combos
77 - 6 Combos
88 - 6 Combos
99 - 6 Combos
TT - 2 Combos
AT - 12 Combos
JT - 8 Combos
Adxd - 12 Combos (estimate)
Hands that continue are
Adxd - 12 Combos
JT - 8 Combos
TT - 2 Combos
66 - 2 Combos
33 - 2 Combos
AT - 6 Combos
So about 32 hands - that will call or raise me
Hands that should fold
77 - 6 Combos
88 - 6 Combos
99 - 6 Combos
AT - 6 Combos
So about 24 Hands - that will fold
This assumes he is never floating me with nothing hoping to take the pot away which in reality I think happens sometimes.
So we win the pot with a bet about 43% of the time. There is a margin of error in this of course but the
on the turn means enough changed from the flop to push out some of the combos of a ten (if the turn had been
I would check/fold). This is a very inexact science of course but I am pretty happy with the bet here. It"s a really good discussion though. There is a chance that somebody floated with AJ in position etc but this is pretty unlikely and if they did they are just as likely to have done it with AQ or even KQ (AK should have 3bet pre) in which case I win the pot more often with the bet, although KQ hit a draw so that might impact it as well. Are my numbers fair here or would other people see it differently?
