JM 17/09 What are the odds on these 3 happening in 189 hand session ?

[Charlie44]

A very sick session - Not just a bad beat story. Would welcome comments about my play on each three and whether I should have got away from them.

What about the first one. In hindsight this guy only has 26/0 stats albeit over just 19 hands. Is this enough evidence to just flat call pre rather than 3 bet, even in SB/BB scenario ? What about after 4 bet - fold, call or shove ? Different to previous hand when I had TT in sb and aggro on button when probably flat call best and let him bet into me. I think if we are looking for value we need to raise.  What about post flop should I have keep betting on turn ? Is there any way I could /should have got away from it or absolute cooler?

PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: $9.59
SB: $10.91
Hero (BB): $10.42
UTG: $2.94
UTG+1: $10.00
UTG+2: $11.07
MP: $19.24
MP+1: $11.40
CO: $11.10

SB posts SB $0.05, Hero posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to $0.30, Hero raises to $0.75, SB raises to $2.25, Hero calls $1.50

Flop : ($4.50, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.72, SB calls $1.72

Turn : ($7.94, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3.03, SB raises to $6.06, Hero calls $3.03

River : ($20.06, 2 players)
SB bets $0.88 and is all-in, Hero calls $0.39 and is all-in

SB shows As (Two Pair, Aces and Sixes) (Pre 88%, Flop 91%, Turn 95%)
Hero shows (Two Pair, Kings and Sixes) (Pre 12%, Flop 9%, Turn 5%)
SB wins $19.90


What about this 2nd hand. Should I play any differently. Can I get away from this or just cooler again ? 447 hands on villain  - 15/10/7.
PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: $10.09
SB: $5.00
BB: $10.18
Hero (UTG): $10.00
UTG+1: $5.00
UTG+2: $11.90
MP: $13.24
MP+1: $2.60
CO: $12.32

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has
Hero raises to $0.30, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $0.90, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.60

Flop : ($1.95, 2 players) As
Hero checks, BTN bets $1.10, Hero calls $1.10

Turn : ($4.15, 2 players) Th
Hero checks, BTN bets $2.90, Hero calls $2.90

River : ($9.95, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $5.19 and is all-in, Hero calls $5.10 and is all-in

BTN shows (Full House, Aces full of Fives) (Pre 88%, Flop 100%, Turn 100%)
Hero shows (Two Pair, Aces and Fives) (Pre 12%, Flop 0%, Turn 0%)
BTN wins $19.24

What about 3rd hand ? To be honest by this point I wasn"t playing at my best. Should I be raising pre flop/flop/turn ? Should I have folded to raise on turn even with so much money in pot ? After this hand I realise wasn"t going to be my day so I cut my losses and stopped the session,a I would have been playing on tilt. No hands on villain.

PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: $20.25
SB: $10.00
BB: $9.60
UTG: $9.33
UTG+1: $10.43
Hero (UTG+2): $10.00
MP: $8.80
MP+1: $15.91
CO: $29.76

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has
fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.40, Hero calls $0.40, MP calls $0.40, fold, CO calls $0.40, fold, fold, fold

Flop : ($1.75, 4 players)
UTG+1 bets $1.00, Hero calls $1.00, fold, CO calls $1.00

Turn : ($4.75, 3 players)
UTG+1 bets $2.90, Hero calls $2.90, CO raises to $5.80, fold, Hero raises to $8.60 and is all-in, CO calls $2.80

River : ($24.85, 2 players)

Hero shows (One Pair, Kings) (Pre 74%, Flop 87%, Turn 7%)
CO shows (Two Pair, Kings and Jacks) (Pre 26%, Flop 13%, Turn 93%)
CO wins $23.73





By the way for the record the odds of these 3 hands happening in 189 hands session I make approx. as follows -

1st hand - I have AK pre/ somebody has AA/ A on flop - approx. 83x 55 x16 = approx 73k-1 per hand

2nd hand - I have AK pre/somebody has AA / K on flop - approx. 83x 55 x 6 = approx 27K-1. per hand

3rd hand - I have AK / K on flop / somebody has 2 pair by turn. - approx  83 x 6 x 10 = approx 5k.-1 per hand

I stand to be corrected but I make likelihood of all 3 hands happening in 189 hand session approx 73k/189x 27k/189 x 5k/189 approx 1.45 million to 1.

At least not likely to happen again to me in my lifetime !!

[Sillbags]

Hand 1
Pre Flop
I consider having 19 hands on villain to be pretty much readless. So readless, I am probably 3 betting, as i"m likely to have the best hand and I want to build a pot. The problem is, that these full ring games play so nitty that you"re likely to get folds from dominated hands like AJ/KQ. And when you get 4 bet you are likely to be up against a range or JJ+ and about a 40% dog. I"m not a fan of calling the 4 bet. If you think he can 4 bet pre with AQ or worse, then 5 bet shove for value, if not then it looks like you have to 3 bet fold, or just call the original raise.
Flop
As played looks fine
Turn
Now, I know the guy has AA and isn"t going anywhere, but his line looks more like JJ/QQ with his flop check. You are unlikely to get 3 streets of value on a K high board vs any hand that you beat in his range. So I would check back the turn for deception. As played i"m not folding, but not loving it either and expecting to see the same hand often.
River
Obv the rest is going in here, but if we had checked back the turn, we may get paid on the river from other hands in his range like JJ/QQ

[Sillbags]

Hand 2
Looks fine on every street. Just a cooler