JM 08/10/13 - Should I fold QQ here ?

[Charlie44]

Only 45 hands on villain but he has stats of 9/9. Is it ok/right to just flat call pre, given UTG+1 raise ? Would typical villain be double barrelling with A high here ? Can I/Should I be folding on the turn ? If so  have I done anything wrong leading up to this point ?

PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (BTN): $10.00
SB: $10.15
BB: $13.76
UTG: $10.84
UTG+1: $10.60
UTG+2: $20.16
MP: $40.89
MP+1: $10.00
CO: $6.71

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has
fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.30, fold, fold, MP+1 calls $0.30, fold, Hero calls $0.30, fold, fold

Flop : ($1.05, 3 players)
UTG+1 bets $0.70, fold, Hero calls $0.70

Turn : ($2.45, 2 players)
UTG+1 bets $1.50, ?

[AAroddersAA]

45 hands is a small sample but VPIP and PFR become accurate quite quickly so would believe what they are telling me here.

Flatting QQ is OK here at Full Ring (not at 6-Max). The reason it is OK is that if you get 4-bet pre you have to fold. Saying that you might get called by hands like 99-JJ so there is an argument for 3-betting. I would probably 3-bet this myself in position but I think the flat call is fine too.

If he is playing 9% then his EP range is smaller, maybe 4%? This range would include 99+ and also AK. I would not estimate it any tighter without really good info to suggest it is.

Would he c-bet AK here, on the flop he probably would as the flop is great for a c-bet, it is also not that bad to double barrel unless he has good info on you and how you play (which we will assume he does not). I like the call on the flop I think although if he had TT or JJ there is a chance he might decide to pay you off on a raise. I like pot control with QQ against this guy though.

The turn changes nothing really everything is as it was (except 99 made a FH). His bet sizes look normal. I would call again as I think we have him beat more often than not here. We will not have useful c-betting stats yet unless we have notes.

If he bets the river it become more difficult but unless he bombs it really big we probably have to sigh and call again. I don"t love this spot but am inclined to call down if no ace appears OTR.

[Fatcatstu]

Is call - call - swear/fold really bad on flop-turn-river here?

[AAroddersAA]

Is call - call - swear/fold really bad on flop-turn-river here?

No, really tough to find a fold OTR here though most of the time. You really only lose to AA or KK (maybe 99 is possible). However if he bets the river he is really saying he has one of those hands.

I think in reality the river goes check/check a lot which is why I like calling the turn.

[deanp27]

Well played, keep calling imo

[Sillbags]

I see this as a call, call, evaluate river as others suggest. The interesting discussion is whether or not to 3 bet pre. I personally think that 3 betting pre in this spot is optimal and here is why. By 3 betting you are obviously building a pot where you think you have the best hand. You will be defining opponents ranges somewhat based on whether they call or 4 bet and you have position. Opening yourself up to getting 4 bet obviously makes things tricky, but not as much as you may think. It is pretty rare for players to 4 bet anything other than AA, KK or AK here, but like rodders said, will call often with 99-JJ. I used to think it was always bad to 3 bet hands for value, if you are going to have to fold to a 4 bet, but if your 3 bet is often called by worse and his 4 bet range has you crushed, then surely it simplifies the hand. Further more, I think with the caller from mp+1 you can make this something like $1.25 pre and being 100bb deep effective, and even if you got 4 bet to say $3.50 you can safely eliminate bluffs from their range. Who is going to 4 bet bluff 1/3 effective stacks?

[TheSnapper]

I see this as a call, call, evaluate river as others suggest. The interesting discussion is whether or not to 3 bet pre. I personally think that 3 betting pre in this spot is optimal and here is why. By 3 betting you are obviously building a pot where you think you have the best hand. You will be defining opponents ranges somewhat based on whether they call or 4 bet and you have position. Opening yourself up to getting 4 bet obviously makes things tricky, but not as much as you may think. It is pretty rare for players to 4 bet anything other than AA, KK or AK here, but like rodders said, will call often with 99-JJ. I used to think it was always bad to 3 bet hands for value, if you are going to have to fold to a 4 bet, but if your 3 bet is often called by worse and his 4 bet range has you crushed, then surely it simplifies the hand. Further more, I think with the caller from mp+1 you can make this something like $1.25 pre and being 100bb deep effective, and even if you got 4 bet to say $3.50 you can safely eliminate bluffs from their range. Who is going to 4 bet bluff 1/3 effective stacks?

Excellent post .

Are you suggesting 3b fold ?

[Sillbags]

I see this as a call, call, evaluate river as others suggest. The interesting discussion is whether or not to 3 bet pre. I personally think that 3 betting pre in this spot is optimal and here is why. By 3 betting you are obviously building a pot where you think you have the best hand. You will be defining opponents ranges somewhat based on whether they call or 4 bet and you have position. Opening yourself up to getting 4 bet obviously makes things tricky, but not as much as you may think. It is pretty rare for players to 4 bet anything other than AA, KK or AK here, but like rodders said, will call often with 99-JJ. I used to think it was always bad to 3 bet hands for value, if you are going to have to fold to a 4 bet, but if your 3 bet is often called by worse and his 4 bet range has you crushed, then surely it simplifies the hand. Further more, I think with the caller from mp+1 you can make this something like $1.25 pre and being 100bb deep effective, and even if you got 4 bet to say $3.50 you can safely eliminate bluffs from their range. Who is going to 4 bet bluff 1/3 effective stacks?

Excellent post .

Are you suggesting 3b fold ?

It"s certainly an option Brendan. I like to think outside the box sometimes though so I may be wrong on this. I actually had a very similar spot in the Bristol Masters last weekend where I chose to 4 bet fold QQ from utg, as I believed his 5 bet range was KK+, AK but he would call with 99-JJ and I didn"t want to play post flop oop. He showed AA, and I may have lost the minimum

[AAroddersAA]

I see this as a call, call, evaluate river as others suggest. The interesting discussion is whether or not to 3 bet pre. I personally think that 3 betting pre in this spot is optimal and here is why. By 3 betting you are obviously building a pot where you think you have the best hand. You will be defining opponents ranges somewhat based on whether they call or 4 bet and you have position. Opening yourself up to getting 4 bet obviously makes things tricky, but not as much as you may think. It is pretty rare for players to 4 bet anything other than AA, KK or AK here, but like rodders said, will call often with 99-JJ. I used to think it was always bad to 3 bet hands for value, if you are going to have to fold to a 4 bet, but if your 3 bet is often called by worse and his 4 bet range has you crushed, then surely it simplifies the hand. Further more, I think with the caller from mp+1 you can make this something like $1.25 pre and being 100bb deep effective, and even if you got 4 bet to say $3.50 you can safely eliminate bluffs from their range. Who is going to 4 bet bluff 1/3 effective stacks?

Excellent post .

Are you suggesting 3b fold ?

It"s certainly an option Brendan. I like to think outside the box sometimes though so I may be wrong on this. I actually had a very similar spot in the Bristol Masters last weekend where I chose to 4 bet fold QQ from utg, as I believed his 5 bet range was KK+, AK but he would call with 99-JJ and I didn"t want to play post flop oop. He showed AA, and I may have lost the minimum

3-bet/fold is actually my preferred play here. I would just call from the SB or BB though.