Turning KK into a bluff on the river?

[Sillbags]

Thought this was an interesting river spot. Playing 200bb deep gave me a nice size bet to bluff shove the river with the K blocker to the nuts.

-Bet size on the flop may be a little small?
-How do we feel about the c/call on the turn? Standard?
-River = c/call, c/fold or c/raise?

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

KregHek777 (BTN): $46.57
SillBags (SB): $53.68
runabout17 (BB): $20.57
lenusikwin (UTG): $11.04
Don Del 82 (MP): $18.09
Mauzen12 (CO): $48.80

SillBags posts SB $0.10, runabout17 posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) SillBags has
fold, fold, Mauzen12 raises to $0.75, fold, SillBags raises to $2.50, fold, Mauzen12 calls $1.75

Flop : ($5.25, 2 players)
SillBags bets $2.75, Mauzen12 calls $2.75

Turn : ($10.75, 2 players)
SillBags checks, Mauzen12 bets $5.25, SillBags calls $5.25

River : ($21.25, 2 players)
SillBags checks, Mauzen12 bets $11.00, SillBags raises to $43.18 and is all-in, fold

SillBags wins $41.30

[Charlie44]

Very nice result.

Assuming villain is a reg, given the action to the river I think villain prob has specifically 99 or 88, or possibly A9s (not clubs obv). I think the only realistic flush holding is QJ clubs. I definitely don"t think you are beating anything on the river so its push or fold for me.

In the time constraints I think its very difficult for him to call on the river as played, and I don"t think I would have done so.
However I believe if he had these holdings he should have called because-

He only needs to be right approx 30% of time to be profitable. Would you really be checking to him on turn and river with a nut flush ?

But well played - IMO you found the best practical play in the circumstances.

[hi_am_chris]

Would assume he has a lot more flushes than just JQ in his range but his bet on the turn could be lots of things including lots of bluffs and semi bluffs, doesn"t have to have a made hand to  bet turn and river when checked to in position.

Pre he has position so would assume he"s going to call with fairly wide range,

[AAroddersAA]

Working from a vacuum here. If you have better reads n the player a lot of what I say here becomes less relevant and can certainly change the best play on the river.

We are playing pretty deep for an online cash game. Preflop is clearly fine and you get it heads up which is cool. He has position in a 3-bet pot so will call a little bit wider.

The flop is wet but we have the best hand a lot of the time here. What do we learn from his call?

A set feels unlikely in this spot as it is a great spot for a set to raise the flop due to the amount of scare cards that are going to hit the turn and the fact the flop is pretty wet anyway.

When he calls there are draws, he can have The flush Draw or even TJ. Maybe a pair and a draw as well? Again a lot of these hands should raise but they don"t.

At this point I don"t see a massive number of aces in his range that call the flop. He could be floating us with AK/AQ I suppose but his hand feels more weighted towards a draw as it is a great spot for hands like two pair and sets to raise.

The turn is pretty horrible but he only bets small so we should certainly call as our hand can still be best and we have the nut flush draw anyway.

The seven completes the TJ straight draw.

He bets about half the pot. If on the flop I felt he had a draw they basically all got there. We still lose to sets and they probably won"t fold. The only hands that we probably do get folds from are AK/AQ type hands that floated the flop and hit the turn. He certainly can have these.

There is $32.25 to win and we are risking $27.30 to win it so he has to fold 46% of the time for us to make money.

Readless I don"t think we get that in this situation.

I think the flop is fine.

I think the turn is standard as when we hit we can get paid quite often, and sometimes the river goes check/check and we win with the best hand. He does not need to have a hand to bet the turn.

I think the river is a check/fold.

[Charlie44]

There is $32.25 to win and we are risking $27.30 to win it so he has to fold 46% of the time for us to make money.

Nice post Steve. I think I got my analysis completely wrong. In hindsight I agree he probs calls 3 bet much wider range, and raises sets here.

Just a small point I think he risks 38.30 here to win 32.25 so villain has to fold 54% of time. Of course this does not contradict situation from villain"s point of view which is he has to call 27.30 to win 70.55 so only needs to be right just 27.8% of time to be profitable.

[noble1]

I don"t mind the check raise bluff, you have the nut blocker plus a good pot/stack ratio.. his bet sizing on the turn + river don"t scream out that he"s betting the strongest parts of his value range..
a word of caution for when you tackle higher stakes or come up against a good hand reader for the current level who"s holding 2pair+ [or even just an ace] you may get called more often than not if the villain knows that you never or very rarely slowplay on this type of board texture, then you are opening yourself up to being very exploitable at deep stack sizes, so to get this type of play through enough to be profitable you need to add slowplays into your range until you"re indifferent to slow playing or fast playing.
thus as stacks become deeper, the value of an uncapped range increases because you don"t ideally want to be having a range of hands that just have high and polarized equity.. you need to make sure you have enough speculative hands that add flop/board coverage to your pre 3bet range [as well as you mixing up your slow/fast plays and folding in the right situations post]

figure out your own range in this spot, stove what you would currently 3bet and go through this hand from beginning to end, and every time you make a decision, de-select all the hand combinations which you would not have played that way.. then everything thats left is the range you hold after making this sequence of decisions... its not a bad exercise to work on to get since you should know how you play

also do it the other way round and play it out from the villains perspective, add in how you think he perceives your range if you think he"s thinking about that

[TheSnapper]

Including results in your op makes it very difficult to give unbiased analysis

[Swinebag]

Including results in your op makes it very difficult to give unbiased analysis

This

Just delete the bit after villains river bet and ask WDYDN?

Think you played the hand great though. You do need to know your villain when trying to pull this off

[Sillbags]

Some excellent feedback guys, thanks. I didn"t post any stats on villain as I think you would need a large hand sample to get accurate fold to river 2bet stats. I think I had about 500 hands on the guy, but even turn play stats were fairly limited. I"ve been playing on average 5k hands a day, so am starting to build up a good sample size on the regs. From my experience I have not seen 1 single river bluff raise at these stakes, it"s always a huge hand. I did infact put myself in the villains shoes when making this river decision and I would have a hard time calling off here without the nuts. Thanks Steve for doing the math on this, and you are quite right that this could be a mathmatical mistake, but if he also believes that river raises can only be the nuts, then surely that sways it, as he is almost never calling?  I didn"t mean to post results Brendan, just copy and pasted hh and never previewed. Noble1, great points about being exploited by better players, and I would never play the nut flush like this on turn or river, although I wouldn"t expect most players at this level to be confident enough to call off light here based on that. I will definitely play around with stove as you suggest.
Not sure I want to play any more APAT tourneys, as you are all too good  

[AAroddersAA]

There is $32.25 to win and we are risking $27.30 to win it so he has to fold 46% of the time for us to make money.

Nice post Steve. I think I got my analysis completely wrong. In hindsight I agree he probs calls 3 bet much wider range, and raises sets here.

Just a small point I think he risks 38.30 here to win 32.25 so villain has to fold 54% of time. Of course this does not contradict situation from villain"s point of view which is he has to call 27.30 to win 70.55 so only needs to be right just 27.8% of time to be profitable.

Sorry yes you are right I had taken the $11 off the total that opponent had already put in the pot (I really should stop posting on hands at midnight lol). This actually makes quite a big difference though, realistically although all of the points made here are great ones I don"t think you get anywhere near enough folds to make this profitable. The logic is good, but without a really good read it is not going to happen often enough.  

[Fatcatstu]

There is $32.25 to win and we are risking $27.30 to win it so he has to fold 46% of the time for us to make money.

Nice post Steve. I think I got my analysis completely wrong. In hindsight I agree he probs calls 3 bet much wider range, and raises sets here.

Just a small point I think he risks 38.30 here to win 32.25 so villain has to fold 54% of time. Of course this does not contradict situation from villain"s point of view which is he has to call 27.30 to win 70.55 so only needs to be right just 27.8% of time to be profitable.

Sorry yes you are right I had taken the $11 off the total that opponent had already put in the pot (I really should stop posting on hands at midnight lol). This actually makes quite a big difference though, realistically although all of the points made here are great ones I don"t think you get anywhere near enough folds to make this profitable. The logic is good, but without a really good read it is not going to happen often enough. 

All of this. Is he folding any flush here? Any straight?

This seems like absolute kamakazi poker to me (I know, I know) just don"t see what we are getting to fold here, and feel like we got lucky to run into the weaker end of his range this time unless anyone cares to tell me any huge reasons otherwise?