Tricky turn spot, or is it ?

[Erimus]

Final table of $6k5 gteed, just reviewed, I marked in game to review, interested in what people would do on the turn.
I think i am deep enough to call not just to set mine,dont want to 4 bet fold, happy to take the flop even oop.

Villain stats h:250,vp:28 pf:25 ft3b:50, not been getting out of line.

Full Tilt Poker Game #33579831902: $6,500 Guarantee (261801209), Table 25 - NL Hold'em - 5000/10000 Ante 1000 - 20:20:38 WET - 2013/12/01 [15:20:38 ET - 2013/12/01]

Seat 2: Credo7 (312,928)       (31bigs) (hj)
Seat 3: -mash-x (197,396)
Seat 4: ChasingWraps (390,294) (39bigs) (button)
Seat 5: UHBigTex (243,296)
Seat 6: luckyron1 (326,086)
Credo7 antes 1,000
-mash-x antes 1,000
ChasingWraps antes 1,000
UHBigTex antes 1,000
luckyron1 antes 1,000
UHBigTex posts the small blind of 5,000
luckyron1 posts the big blind of 10,000
The button is in seat #4
***
HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Credo7 [ ]
Credo7 raises to 20,000
-mash-x folds
ChasingWraps has 15 seconds left to act
ChasingWraps raises to 41,310
UHBigTex folds
luckyron1 folds
Credo7 calls 21,310
*** FLOP *** [ Td]
Credo7 checks
ChasingWraps has 15 seconds left to act
ChasingWraps bets 31,955
Credo7 raises to 75,000
ChasingWraps has 15 seconds left to act
ChasingWraps calls 43,045
*** TURN *** [ Td] [] (Total Pot: 252,620, 2 Players)
Credo7 checks
ChasingWraps has 15 seconds left to act
ChasingWraps bets 55,544
Credo7 has 15 seconds left to act

Easy fold, call again or give up.

[mporter123]

Hate the flop play so much. He will fold all his air and continue with hands that beat us, we must be behind now so its definitely a fold. I can"t see how villain has any bluffs with this line..

I get that were scared of a queen, King, Ace on the turn but we have to just check call the flop.

Saying that I am certain that you are not deep enough to call pre. Given positions, stacks and stats, seems like an absolutely perfect spot to 4bet jam to me. Would struggle to know what to do if we had 35-40bigs though.

[Erimus]

His 3 bet pre indicates strength to me here basically clicking it back, don"t think he is doing it with 77 and below so got to be aware I am all already beaten so 99+ definitely in his range, think he may flat 99, 1010 even Jacks, table has been pretty tight, if he has Ak, Aq, think he 3 bets more pre.

After he leads my check, I am not scared of an over card the reason I reraise is to see if my initial thoughts are correct ie an over pair probably QQ+, hard for AK, AQ to continue because I am showing strength, I know some people won"t fold Ak, AQ in this spot but I didn"t think in this situation he is chasing the over card.

Perhaps I should flat his raise but I still wouldn"t know where I was, he did give me a free card to hit my set which I obviously didn"t.

At the start of the hand I had 31 bigs and have only lost 6 bigs in this hand, 25 bigs imo is more than enough to cause damage in a better spot if I decided not to jam.

4 bet jamming with 88 in this spot was not an option, flipping at best, more than likely a 4/1 to dog.

[deanp27]

5 handed vs an aggro opponent i"d be tempted to pile this pre

[deanp27]

Raising flop seems worst option but all this highlights why peeling 3bets with medium hands OOP and no betting lead can be troublesome.

Probably call flop/give up after that or call down depending on history.

The guy is playing 28/25 over a decent-ish sample (you don"t put his 3bet stat in, his fold to 3bet stat is less important) so its hard to think he isn"t capable of 3bet bluffing from the button 5 handed when he is the big stack. As said above I put this in pre.

[Erimus]

Agree mid game to accumulate chips etc, but now there is decent money involved, I know this shouldn"t make a massive difference but it does, not just to me but to the others as well, even though he stats say he has been busy the hands I had seen him in he usually had decent holdings.

I am quite happy to flip for 20+ bigs with mid pairs mid game to get to this spot as you are usually racing, gotta win them flips! here the dynamic is slightly different imo.

I did raise pre flop, he 3 bet from the button, he doesn"t have to be light here, sometimes other people get hands.

[mporter123]

4 bet jamming with 88 in this spot was not an option, flipping at best, more than likely a 4/1 to dog.

Your talking about villain like he is a total nit. If thats the case then its a very clear fold pre once raised. Villain with these stats, 5 handed, should have lots of semi bluff / complete bluff 3 bets in his range that will snap fold to a 4bet.

I wouldn"t read too much into his sizing pre. If he is any good, which stats indicate he might be, then he will use that  sizing for all his 3bets - bluffs or for value. Thats dependent on how he views you of course.

Are we re-raising on the flop for value or as a bluff? Neither - we are doing it to find out where we are which is not a good reason to raise. When we check call the flop, we give him the chance to bluff turns. Yes - the hand is "harder" to play as we aren"t sure where we are but thats fine. I would expect a lot of turns to go check check when we check call the flop.

[mporter123]

Really do like a jam here. If we click it back, we just give him the option to 5bet jam worse hands as a bluff - this is quite conceivable. In his spot, I might just go mad with Ax, Kx pre to a click back.

By 4 bet jamming pre, he will obv fold some flips as well - A10,AJ type hands. If he was really aggro then could 4bet call but need a good solid read for that.

[Erimus]

Don"t think he is a nit at all, ie in play or via stats but we have to be aware he can easily have us crushed here, folding pre was an option but would be too nitty only 2 more bigs to call, agree the raise wasn"t for value but why not to ask the question ?, i still have 24 bigs left if I have to fold and still comfortably in the game, I raised pre, I have reraised his bet on a 10 high flop so I am indicating strength, him still being here also indicates to me he does have something, if he is bluffing me here well played him, sometimes we get outplayed, it"s all part of the game.

Perhaps a leak in my game is I tend to think villain always has a better hand ie if I have KQ, villain has to have AK, got to start thinking the other way around, if I have KQ, they have KJ.

[Erimus]

Susan needs feeding and off to the G,  basically I folded the turn bet, I asked him in the chat box if 88 was any good, and he said no, he may of been lying but I was quite happy with the fold and have no reason to disbelieve him.

Nb: went on to win it for $2k9, sometimes a fold is ok, be it right or wrong.

[Swinebag]

Lol nice brag at the end

But this hand was a complete mess. My lack of faith in stats is well documented and I probably wouldn"t need stats to tag this player as LAG but with 28/25 over a big sample you can confidently 4 bet ship this with your stack size. Peeling is not too terrible but I would certainly have a plan before doing this.

It seems you didn"t have too much of a plan when you cr the flop because you have now put over a third of your stack in and are now puzzled what to do ott.

Fwiw you didn"t compound your error and play the "pot committed" card and do your stack in ott. I may have done that but would have struggled to get into that spot in the first place. As mark says, you are pretty well beat now. It is just a shame that you lost such a chunk finding out.

The advantage of 4b shipping here is that you can pick up a nice pot with minimal risk as villain will fold a fair chunk of his 3b range and maybe depending on your image 99. If villain is competent and running over the table, he shouldn"t be too bothered about playing big pots so will give you the pot most of the time. But with it being 5 handed you need to ship this for value as 88 is massive here. When you call and take the line you did, you lose the initiative and let yourself get bluffed by worse hands on the many unfavourable flops that will land.

Well done OTW

Vwp.

[noble1]

Easy fold, call again or give up.

I think you have to x/f on this turn, especially if you don't believe ChasingWraps checks back the river enough with hands that you beat, and that you think you can't call a river bet if he makes one.

His 3 bet pre indicates strength to me here basically clicking it back, don"t think he is doing it with 77 and below so got to be aware I am all already beaten so 99+ definitely in his range, think he may flat 99, 1010 even Jacks, table has been pretty tight, if he has Ak, Aq, think he 3 bets more pre.

After he leads my check, I am not scared of an over card the reason I reraise is to see if my initial thoughts are correct ie an over pair probably QQ+, hard for AK, AQ to continue because I am showing strength, I know some people won"t fold Ak, AQ in this spot but I didn"t think in this situation he is chasing the over card.

Firstly i tip my hat to you sir, i do like an individual who"s not afraid to try what is unconventional and who will sometimes make mistakes.
Given the above reads donk leading must of been an option? [all on villains tendencies and how he viewed yourself etc etc]
If you had a read or an inkling that he might cbet his whole 3bet range when you check to him but give up a lot on the turn then check call.........


arguments against 4bet pre for me are - if the players we are re-jamming on have some glaring post-flop leaks then don"t do it...
for me you should always ask yourself what edges do you put at risk by jamming here? there might be one or two herberts left who are always folding to our three-bets, is there a vulnerable big blind? etc etc..........
hell its a $26 mtt and post flop isn"t there greatest strength, why make moves in pre flop situations that they discuss and study daily on the forums?

Perhaps a leak in my game is I tend to think villain always has a better hand ie if I have KQ, villain has to have AK, got to start thinking the other way around, if I have KQ, they have KJ.

is it a leak? there"s obviously some parts of your mtt approach that are working judging by your blog and the results you get, just keep doing what you are doing, but don"t rest on your laurels, start looking for more spots post-flop in these mtts where you can make raises or bets they've only seen donkeys do before and thus hopefully they end up making a mistake versus you be it folding or stacking off light etc etc.. scan the mtt forums, watch the regs at your buy in level and see if you can find some currently unpopular lines which are actually profitable because of some certain trend at the moment for example....

thats my tuppence worth

[Erimus]

It was just a gut feeling I had when he 3 bet pre, obviously gut feelings don"t come across when people are discussing hands so that"s awkward for readers to judge.

I had just got myself back in the game with a double to 31 bigs, 4 bet shoving will get his bluffs out but also we are going to be snapped by QQ+ here.

Although I use hem, I don"t fully rely on the stats and I generally only play 2 tables so I use instinct rather than numbers, although they do help.

fair enough I did lose a quater of my stack, but with 24 bigs after folding I could still do damage to other stacks around.

I understand that aggression is usually best but sometimes we can be a bit more subtle and not just jam the lot in, hoping for a flip at best, again mid game to accumulate chips happy to take a flip or outdraw an overpair dependant upon the opponent, situation etc.

As a self proclaimed nit I was ok with the play and do understand why people would jam pre here but went with my initial instinct, at least I didn"t just wimp out and did try and win the pot but as played I was quite happy I made a good fold.

Thanks for the input.