The Grand national is a race that if I was a serious punter I would avoid like the plague. There are just too many things that that could go wrong and too many plots hatched for the race for anything to be backed with confidence. Nevertheless, I watched it for years before I was in the the least bit interested in horse racing, so tomorrow, like a large chunk of the country, I"ll have my feet up in front of the TV with a couple of samll each way vouchers to give me an interest.
As a matter of principle I tend to avoid the front few in the market and go hunting for a bit of value in the longer priced runners. I can see both State of Play and Character Building plodding round and possibly sneaking a bit of prize money, but I don"t see either as likely winners. One I do like a lot is Skippers Brig. From 9 starts over fences he has 5 wins and 2 thirds and has not yet fallen. In his last race Skippers Brig beat Ballybriggs and using the yardstick of 1 pound in weight equaling 1 length, the latter emerges from that run as a 2 pounds better horse, but carries 12 pounds more tomorrow. With that in mind, I find it incredible that Ballybriggs is 14-1 and Skippers Brig 40-1, so guess which I"ll be backing?
For my second bet, I"m stuck between a choice of two at big prices. I"ve always had a gut feeling that Calgary Bay could go well in a National. At first glance, his record might suggest that he is best at distances short of 3 miles, but there are occasions when he has been staying on at the end of that trip, so bearing mind that tomorrow"s race won"t be run at anything like the pace of a Cheltenham Gold Cup, i think there is every chance that 4.5 miles around Aintree will suit him. His last win was a very convincing one off a handicap mark of 142 in December 2009 at Doncaster and he runs off 146 in the big one. At 33-1 he could be tempting.
My third possible has the least convincing profile, but is a big enough price to make me think a bit. Dooneys Gate has done a fair chunk of his racing at 2 to 2.5 miles, but a check back through his record suggests that the most valuable races he has been aimed at are over further. He has had a clear round over the national fences, 4th in last year"s Topham chase, and whilst I"m not convinced that he is spectacularly well handicapped, his last race was a very comfortable off a mark of 144, so tomorrow"s rating of 154 is fair but not OTT. I think he is much,much better that the 100-1 shot he currently is in places.
Today"s results
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Minutes - 193
Handa - 591
Profit - 132 x bb
[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dael4sb42nI[/youtube]
