Big $11 Jam

[mporter123]

PokerStars Hand #115348301622: Tournament #897807270, $10+$1 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XIV (250/500) - 2014/04/26 22:08:38 WET [2014/04/26 17:08:38 ET]
Table "897807270 979" 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: Mark_Port157 (10962 in chips)
Seat 2: shotgun98 (26333 in chips)
Seat 3: Big_Dave_967 (38198 in chips)
Seat 4: HebronDRQ (21864 in chips)
Seat 6: r7pot (11966 in chips)
Seat 7: danyd86 (54563 in chips)
Seat 8: silvestre130 (10499 in chips)
Seat 9: Roxie Hart (14711 in chips)
Mark_Port157: posts the ante 60
shotgun98: posts the ante 60
Big_Dave_967: posts the ante 60
HebronDRQ: posts the ante 60
r7pot: posts the ante 60
danyd86: posts the ante 60
silvestre130: posts the ante 60
Roxie Hart: posts the ante 60
HebronDRQ: posts small blind 250
r7pot: posts big blind 500
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Mark_Port157 [ ]
danyd86: folds
silvestre130: folds
Roxie Hart: folds
Mark_Port157: raises 500 to 1000
shotgun98: raises 1441 to 2441
Big_Dave_967: folds
HebronDRQ: calls 2191
r7pot: folds
Mark_Port157: ??

shotgun98 is playing 29/21/19 over 64 hands.

HebronDRQ is playing 18/11/6 over 72 hands.

Our image is pretty tight.

Thoughts? Interested in the range for the overcaller and how that affects whether we should jam.

[KarmaDope]

I don"t like it. Overcaller is a nit so should be calling you with most hands he plays. Would love to jam over shotgun"s initial raise but with the call...I fold.

[TheSnapper]

18/11 is not a nit imo.

6922 in the middle for a huge overlay, co it seems has aggro tendencies and I suspect a weakish range, it"s possible SB is trapping with a monster but weaker hands are equally likely.

You have some maybe not a lot of fold equity and a min 20% hand equity, embrace the variance. Is there any other way to win these big field events?

[dwh103]

18/11 is not a nit imo.

6922 in the middle for a huge overlay, co it seems has aggro tendencies and I suspect a weakish range, it"s possible SB is trapping with a monster but weaker hands are equally likely.

You have some maybe not a lot of fold equity and a min 20% hand equity, embrace the variance. Is there any other way to win these big field events?

+1

[LombBomb]

Is there ever any argument for just flatting the 3bet?  Doesn"t look like we"re getting great value to set mine but the implied odds are worth considering.  

[KarmaDope]

Is there ever any argument for just flatting the 3bet?  Doesn"t look like we"re getting great value to set mine but the implied odds are worth considering. 

I dont think we can flat the 3 bet here oop as it is basically 25% of our stack. Fold>Shove>Call imo.

[LombBomb]

Is there ever any argument for just flatting the 3bet?  Doesn"t look like we"re getting great value to set mine but the implied odds are worth considering. 

I dont think we can flat the 3 bet here oop as it is basically 25% of our stack. Fold>Shove>Call imo.

Yeah but we"ve already opened for 10% of our stack.  I"m more inclined to peel after a cold call to the 3 bet.  If we flat and miss the flop we can fold and have 15BBs left which is a perfect reshoving stack.

[KarmaDope]

Is there ever any argument for just flatting the 3bet?  Doesn"t look like we"re getting great value to set mine but the implied odds are worth considering. 

I dont think we can flat the 3 bet here oop as it is basically 25% of our stack. Fold>Shove>Call imo.

Yeah but we"ve already opened for 10% of our stack.  I"m more inclined to peel after a cold call to the 3 bet.  If we flat and miss the flop we can fold and have 15BBs left which is a perfect reshoving stack.

Yeah, but what do we do is the flop is 7 high, or 6-7-9 for example? Our hand is strong and we are OOP. We then are in a position where we conceivably have to get it all in based on hand strength against some top ranges, only to find that probably we dont have as much equity as we thought. Fold and move on.

[LombBomb]

Is there ever any argument for just flatting the 3bet?  Doesn"t look like we"re getting great value to set mine but the implied odds are worth considering. 

I dont think we can flat the 3 bet here oop as it is basically 25% of our stack. Fold>Shove>Call imo.

Yeah but we"ve already opened for 10% of our stack.  I"m more inclined to peel after a cold call to the 3 bet.  If we flat and miss the flop we can fold and have 15BBs left which is a perfect reshoving stack.

Yeah, but what do we do is the flop is 7 high, or 6-7-9 for example? Our hand is strong and we are OOP. We then are in a position where we conceivably have to get it all in based on hand strength against some top ranges, only to find that probably we dont have as much equity as we thought. Fold and move on.

I"d happily fold to a c-bet on a 7 high flop as I try to avoid marginal spots where possible.  I"m comfortable folding any flop that doesn"t have an 8 on it.

[deanp27]

If you want to avoid marginal spots in general then I don"t think opening 88 for a min off a c20bb stack is a good idea.
It looks like a fold with the cold caller but there so many fruitcakes in the big 11 you could be in good shape getting it in

[mporter123]

I think it"s a fold now and really isn"t that close. 10"s is my line for jamming here.

We have enough hands on the villain to make an assumption that he isn"t going to be randomly flatting pocket pairs lower than ours, random paint or A9ss type hands.

His range for flatting there is really strong - pairs that crush us and the rest are flips.

This would be a good spot against lots of opponents to jam in the Big $11 but not this one. Were just not getting the odds to set mine so that isn"t an option either. Would have loved jamming over the original raiser of course.

I didn"t think it through properly in game and just jammed btw.

[Chipaccrual]

Just don"t make this sort of move with pocket two"s.

That"s just plain crazy stuff