Decisions Decisions Decisions

[TopPair2Pair]

Just revisiting a mediocre tournement that I played in the other day ago. There"s a Key hand that I didn"t play and I am just wondering what you guys think and if you would"ve played it differently. Its a cut and shut decision really;either fold or shove.

To set the scene I"ve done well just played a big pot with :as: calling an insta ALLIN from a chump with kd jh we both miss the board completely. My very next hand is  ah , with potential 3+ players priced in to a relatively unusal big pot as the tbl has been v tight, pot winner is blatently going to get pushed through to top twenty at the very least. approx 200 players left in the tour, and i"m about 87th as it stands.

Given that I"d just doubled up I didn"t fancy a race, I was going to flat call the BB until the allin comes along and decided to fold. When the Turn comes I was literally going to vinny jones my laptop after driving my car through the front wall of the living room.

Anyway - be interested to hear your thoughts!

Getting Hand History Information...
----------------------------------------------------------------

Hand #55355316-101 at BD-021 (No Limit tournament Hold'em)

    X is at seat 0 with 28030.
    Y is at seat 1 with 27085.
    - is at seat 2 with 18970.
    - is at seat 3 with 5545.
    - is at seat 4 with 34745.
    Me at seat 5 with 27830.
    - is at seat 6 with 27035.
    Z is at seat 7 with 20665.
    - is at seat 8 with 33700.
    - is at seat 9 with 79755.
    The button is at seat 6.
   
    X posts ante (125).
    Y posts ante (125).
    - posts ante (125).
    - posts ante (125).
    - posts ante (125).
    Me posts ante (125).
    - posts ante (125).
    Z posts ante (125).
    - posts ante (125).
    - posts ante (125).
    - posts the small blind of 600.
    - posts the big blind of 1200.


Pre-flop:

         X calls.   Y goes all-in for 26960.  
         - folds.   - folds. 
         - folds.   Me folds.   - folds. 
         Z goes all-in for 20540.   - folds. 
         - folds.   - calls.  

         Tournament all-in showdown -- players show:

              X shows .
              Y shows .
              Z shows  kd  :as:.
         

Flop (board:  kh  ::  qh):

       (no action in this round)
         

Turn (board: kh  ::  qh  ):

       (no action in this round)
         

River (board: kh  ::  qh    ):

       (no action in this round)
         

         

Showdown:

    X has  kh qh : three fives.
    Y has kh qh : a pair of sevens.
    Z has  kd :as: kh qh : a pair of kings.
         

Summary:

    X wins the main pot 64670 with three fives.
    X wins the side pot 12840 with three fives.

[biffa85]

nope, fold instantly and don"t worry about the shuuda, wudda, cudda"s.

Just as a side point, when playing online remember that the cards are constantly shuffled, so if you fold and then the board goes on to show that you would have won, then don"t worry, as unless you call at the same time interval AND everyone else also acts in the same time interval then the cards would have been different.  Which is very unlikely as your action will probably have an impact on other peoples decisions.

In this case was the decision "correct" yep - no worries!

[Departed]

Definite fold. Not a great holding (considering stack sizes) and too many people left to act after you.

Also, Y has got an ok stack...so that push by him in early position is nearly always a pair or AK, so calling would be a clear mistake.

[ThinkerJE]

It was the right fold and the right decision.  Whatever happens afterwards is irrelevant.  You were up against 2 pocket pairs and a better ace.  Although frustrating you hit your hand, you made the correct decision.

[duke3016]

FOLD

[jacklevel06]

FOLD

+1

[kinboshi]

nope, fold instantly and don"t worry about the shuuda, wudda, cudda"s.

Just as a side point, when playing online remember that the cards are constantly shuffled, so if you fold and then the board goes on to show that you would have won, then don"t worry, as unless you call at the same time interval AND everyone else also acts in the same time interval then the cards would have been different.  Which is very unlikely as your action will probably have an impact on other peoples decisions.

In this case was the decision "correct" yep - no worries!

What he said.

[Mikeyboy9361]

Obvious fold, well done!

[noble1]

just looked quick and doing quick maths in my head if you had called and the hands plays out as above you would of got about 3.7 to 1 odds , so u would need roughly 21% equity to make it a maths wise correct call , A9s against
player 1 AK AQ
player 2 22 - JJ
player 3 55+ AT+ KQ KJ

just giving a reasonable range to the 3 villians  A9s would be around 13 to 14 % you would need odds of around 5.7 to make a correct call

so as above replys it is a insta FOLD
sorry to any maths geeks i just does this in my head, but i know i"m not far out  

[TopPair2Pair]

thanks noble, can you break down the basic maths you did to get to that answer?

Bill Chen is on the way to me in the post!

Also you posted a training website on here a while back I can"t seem to find the post can you pm me the link or post it here. thanks

[noble1]

 Posted by: Toppietwo
thanks noble, can you break down the basic maths you did to get to that answer?

ok to work out your equity the maths goes as this -
a common way you see it explained on forums is  pot size + your call size = X
then you would divide your call size by X = your equity

example-pot is 1000  its 500 to call  so 1000+500=1500  so 500/1500 x 100=%33.33

or the way i do it is i"d work out the odds [pot divided by call] 1000/500=2to1  all you do then is add the 2/1 together = 3    and then all you do is   1/3x100=%33.33
again doing it this way - the pot is 3545 and its 888 to call    3545/888=3.99to1
so 1 / 4.99x100=%20.04

dont let the maths scare you because if you review key hands that you play in mtts and cash games on Pokerstove after a while you will simply start memorizing what ranges to call or shove.

if you need to work a percentage into odds you would do it like this -
%33 what are the odds    all you do is work out 100-33=67  then all you have to do is 67 / 33 = 2to1     or if precise 2.03  [round it down its basically 2to1]
%45 would be 55 / 45 = 1.22to1          [ 100-45=55/45=xx ]  
%25 would be 75 / 25 = 3to1              [ 100-25=75/25=xx ]
%18 would be 82 / 18 = 4.55to1
ALWAYS 100 MINUS THE PERCENTAGE = X  THEN X DIVIDED BY PERCENTAGE=ODDS
get your calculator out beside you as you play online and use it to work out odds and equity and all the figures will slowly sink in ..

although its good to know your correct equity calls and the odds , its only a piece of the poker jigsaw, you have to still always improve your pre and post flop reading skills .. Then you will be able to use the maths against thinking players at the higher levels,but that is another subject.

anyhows hope this helps       is the training site you refer to PokerXfactor if it is google it -  Eric Haber aka Sheets on pokerstars is the ICM + Equity king due to all his sng experience and his instruction videos and sng study groups are worth looking into,also all the mtt videos by various online pro"s will help anyone an enormous amount.

[TopPair2Pair]

[noble1]

thats ok , just make sure you have pokerstove [free download, google it]
and mess around with different hands then you will build up a base knowledge of what type of hands play well against tags and lags and at what equity..

[TopPair2Pair]

Got it, v useful program!

Got Bill Chen Maths of Poker through the post today as well, which is going completely fry my brain!

[noble1]

   happy frying    lmao
if its the book i"m thinking of then you"ll find the nash equilibrium chart theory stuff intresting - nice to apply to your heads up play, in mtts i"m still sceptical but along with SAGE its good to know and you will spot others applying it.