Call or Fold?

[kinboshi]

http://www.cardplayer.com/magazine/article/15093

This was being discussed on the blonde poker forum, and it"s made for an interesting debate (at first glance I couldn"t really see the debate and I thought it was an obvious decision).

It"s the first day of a five-figure buy-in no-limit hold"em tournament. You"ve gotten a good night"s sleep. You feel alert.

You wade through all the railbirds and all the media and finally locate your seat. Just as you do, the tournament director announces, "Shuffle up and deal!" It"s your big blind, and you toss two of your green chips onto the felt. You"ve now got $9,950 in chips in your stack.

Everyone folds around to the small blind, who shoves all in for $10,000. You haven"t even taken your chip protector out of your pocket yet, but you figure you probably won"t need it on this hand. You"re going to fold, unless you look down at aces. But there"s a problem. The small blind doesn"t have a protector on his cards, either, and when he looks down at them one more time, he accidentally exposes his hand.

He has the  ad kd. You look down at your hand, and find  qc qs. You"ve done your research. You know you have a 53.8 percent chance of winning if you call. But should you?

Thoughts?

[coprey]

Fold.

I dont want to put my tournament life on a 50/50 shot in the first hand. If I had AA I will call. If I had KK I would probably fold as it is my nemesis hand.

[HaworthBantam]

Fold.

Is trusting to luck in a 50/50 race, with the blinds so small, really poker ?

[Roscopiko]

I"d like to be sure I call but in the actual situation who knows.

Given I have no edge in this tourney and I am ahead I think its a call and if I win I have some protection for later when my AA gets busted by some deep south donks 74s that he cant put down cos its his favourite hand.

If they hit fair enough, I"ll just go and play the next $10k buy in starting in 5 mins.......oh...

Still call (probably maybe)

[Mikeyboy9361]

I think we have had a similar discussion before. So basically we are talking about the main event or similar, a tourney that the average man in the street has either satellited ( is that a word) into or spent a big buy in. He has been looking forward to this tourney for weeks, is he going to throw it all in on the first hand with a race? If it was me the answer is a defo, no, I would fold this hand. If I am a pro who gets bought into these tourneys by my sponsor and I play these big tourneys all the time then it is a straight call.
The other thing to consider is that when you get deep in these tourneys that 10k isn"t actually that big, in fact it is only a small blind!! So even though if you win you are sitting pretty early and can maybe use that stack aggressively, you can build up to that over the next few hours without putting your life at risk.
That would be my stategy any way, in fact if it was me I would probs fold at an APAT regional!! Cos for me its a day out
Some people might say then if you fold a hand like that when you are favourite to win, you shouldn"t be playing poker, well to those people I say

[AMRN]

Let"s assume for a minute that there are say 1000 runners.... that means there are 1M chips in play, and your starting stack is 0.1% of total chips in play. You need 100% of chips to win the tourney, and some reasonable percentage just to cash......

Why would you put your tourney on the line in a coin flip situation when the outcome will be almost irrelevent in terms of the overall tourney..... the winner of the hand will double up, but will only have 0.2% of the chips in play - and will still be 99.8% short of the chips required to win.......

My point therefore is that you would be putting your life on the line on a coin flip in the hope of putting yourself into a position that is hardly different to the position you will be in you fold. Why bother?

FOLD

[Swinebag]

Its a fold.

Not because its a major tourney with a big buy in, but because we have a long clock. If the donk is raising all in with AK then there will be better opportunities to get his chips than this 50/50 shot.

KK is a call though(obv), but thats a different thread isn"t it?

[noble1]

hands up if anyone here has seen any top pro call a all in pre-flop with QQ whether they"ve seen the opponents cards or not , in the 1st level......
enough said - donkey poker - leave em to it...............................................

[kinboshi]

Wow.

I instacall here.

[Swinebag]

Wow.

I instacall here.

I think i know why? (either you feel you have a big enough edge in the hand or you feel that you will have to play a coin flip at some stage of the tourney so why not now)

But what is your reasoning here?

[kinboshi]

Wow.

I instacall here.

I think i know why? (either you feel you have a big enough edge in the hand or you feel that you will have to play a coin flip at some stage of the tourney so why not now)

But what is your reasoning here?

I"m crap and will take any edge I can get?

[Jimmy010101]

This isnt a coin flip like everyone makes out, almost but its not! I will always, no matter what take the hand that is infront!
There is a section in Doyles bible where he runs any pair of deuces against Ace King straight out, and he always takes the deuces and they do this for $500 a time! In the long run he always walks away with the most cash!  
But the issue here is, it is in the long run and you only have one shot!
It would make my decision even easier when i see he has A K, someone makes a move like that and you see queens you instantly think they have Aces or Kings, so knowing he has to hit a card to beat you as apposed to the other way around, its a call all day everyday!
Any man a gambler or a poker player would take the queens, but alot more gamblers would bet it!

[Swinebag]

Cash game - insta call
late stages of tourney (depending on stacks and blinds) - call
early stages of tourney (this scenario) - reluctant fold

[Jon MW]

Fold.

Is trusting to luck in a 50/50 race, with the blinds so small, really poker ?

A lot of the other reasons for folding I agree with - but this is the gist of why I would fold.

I play poker to have fun - if I didn"t have fun I wouldn"t play - shoving all your chips in for races is not fun.

I"d rather get beaten by being outplayed postflop than win by winning preflop shoves.

However, I also have no concept of the value of money.

[kinboshi]

I"d have a lot more fun with 20,000 chips .