bet or check the river?

[noble1]

I was reading up on some past mtts when i came across this hand on a final table 4 handed which i thought was interesting.

It is a high buy in,4 runners left all pros..
blinds - 150,000/300,000

PRO1 - 9 million in chips
PRO2 - 8.9 million in chips

pro2 is on the button and raises to 1 million with  ah qc
pro1 in the big blind calls

the flop is -   ::
pro1 checks
pro2 checks

the turn is -   ::
pro1 bets 1 million
pro2 calls

the river is -   :: qd
pro1 checks
pro2


what should pro2 do and why?

[TopPair2Pair]

Fold!

[kinboshi]

Bet.  2 million.  For value.

[hollaboo]

check.if u do have the best hand you have increased yr stack by almost 25%. if u bet and get reraised what u gonna do then? mind u i,m crap so probably totally wrong

[rubertoe]

Be gentle i"m not the greatest Strategist

I would Check behind!

the reason for this is that the pot is already quite Large and i dont wanna have to comit myself to calling an all in check raise on the end to a draw that could have got there!

Not having any reads on the BB to go on - if i was in that spot (the BB four handed) i"d be calling a lot of button raises with hands like 67/78/89 suited.

The BB Then could have the flush/straight draw on the flop and then the 7 comes on the turn which hits the Straight draws either by completing it or pairing it, so could have a lot of outs to hit hence the call of 1mil on the turn as they are getting more than 3/1 on the call.

The flush comes - Check again - Very passive - Suspicious!

So check behind - hope his draw didnt get there and save yourself a tough decison on the End!

[Mikeyboy9361]

I presume we are assuming he hit the flush, if that is the case I agree with Dan, as he will probably get a call for a further 1 mill. What did he call the pre flop raise with if not two suited cards? Possibly a weakish ace or a small pair, he may have hit top pair top kicker, but doubtful as he should have bet the flop, he could have trips or , and decided to slow play them, in which case he would probs still bet for value. I will stick my neck out and say he has 9 10 diamonds!!
I am ususally way out with Noble"s quizzes, is this going to a new 2009?

[Swinebag]

This is tough because I have no idea how Pro1 plays (apart from v well!!) and how pro1 perceives Pro2. I am struggling to put Pro1 on an accurate range given he called a big preflop raise OOP and is a good player. I feel inclined that he could be disguising a monster. How often has he 3 bet out of he blinds? How often has he called in the blinds? This lack of info and the betting (or lack of it - missed c bet on flop???) on the other streets is making my decision harder...

However....I"ll have a go...

In the past I"d probably have checked behind, but then again I do miss a lot of value on the river and as my new years resolution is to bet more on the river I"m going to look at betting here. The trouble is how much??

The trouble with betting here is that there doesn"t seem to be many hands you beat that would call a river bet. In addition your hand is struggling against the check raise on the river. However you are now beating most pocket pairs that haven"t made trips and his betting pattern does not neccessarily mean a flush.

In addition a 2/3 to 3/4 pot bet commits most of your stack while a thin 1/4 to 1/3 pot bet could be seen as weak and may get reraised for the hell of it. having said that the thin value bet may get called by a worse hand and if it is raised you can get out of there relatively cheap.

So, I"ll go for bet 1.5 million.....

[noble1]

ok pretty much 50/50 on check or bet which was the opinion of some pros that analyzed this hand afterwards.
Here is the river card and the action,what would you do now if your PRO2..?

I was reading up on some past mtts when i came across this hand on a final table 4 handed which i thought was interesting.

It is a high buy in,4 runners left all pros..
blinds - 150,000/300,000

PRO1 - 9 million in chips
PRO2 - 8.9 million in chips

pro2 is on the button and raises to 1 million with  ah qc
pro1 in the big blind calls

the flop is -   ::
pro1 checks
pro2 checks

the turn is -   ::
pro1 bets 1 million
pro2 calls

the river is -   :: qd
pro1 checks
pro2


what should pro2 do and why?

the river is -   :: qd
pro1 checks
pro2 bets 2 million
pro1 goes all in

what does pro2 do now?  he has 6.9 million left..

ps
Swinebag22 tough decision now

[Mikeyboy9361]

Well i put him on a flush, so its a call, trips its a call, otherwise a fold i think.

[noble1]

you say pro2 fold mikey yes?

[rubertoe]

I"d Fold - See my reasons for above -

There is not much you can beat, and should have checked behind!

[Mikeyboy9361]

Oh ******** I haven"t read this too well, I have been playing it from the other guys point of view, shouldn"t try and work and contibute to the forum at the same time.
Right pro 2 should have checked behind, a bet here is only going to get called if he is behind. The fact that he now gets massively re raised may make him feel that pro 1 is bluffing, but it would be a hero call with 6.9 mill left. So he should really fold. So that means he probs called at pro 1 shows pair of nines!

[noble1]

lol love the colourful language mikey

working? omg hope you make up for it and get snozzled tonight  

i"ll wait for swinebag and post the result of what happened..

[Swinebag]

Thanks for waitng noble1

With the lack of a decent read...I"ll fold here.

I suppose you have to call though given that you are betting believing you have the best hand and despite the shove may still have enough times to justify the call.

[hollaboo]

surely pro 2 only has 4.9 million now