More dubious Expressed Odds ? Or do the implied odds justify playing ....

[Mayfair]

Any thoughts on how i played and should have continued in this hand ?

Thoughts on the expressed/implied odds on the turn of particular
interest.




$5 + $0.50 Sit & Go 6max - 60/120 - No Limit Hold'em

Only stats i have on Player B are the current tourney.
At this point his VPIP was below 20% and his PFR at 5% ish
He hadn"t played a single hand in level 1 and only went to his
first showdown in the current level 7.

I"d been somewhat looser at around 33% VPIP and 17% PFR.
But again i"d not shown many cards and when i did they were decent.



Seat 4: PLAYER-A (1,982)
Seat 5: Mayfa1r (3,736)
Seat 6: PLAYER-B (3,282)
Mayfa1r posts the small blind of 60
PLAYER-B posts the big blind of 120
The button is in seat #4

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Mayfa1r [ ]
PLAYER-A folds
Mayfa1r calls 60
PLAYER-B checks

*** FLOP *** [ ad  ::]
Mayfa1r bets 120
PLAYER-B calls 120

*** TURN *** [ ad ::] [:as:]
Mayfa1r bets 120
PLAYER-B raises to 400
Mayfa1r has 15 seconds left to act.....

[LongshanksED]

fold

still plenty of chips left

[AMRN]

you have to call 280 to win a pot of 1000 - easy call, and yes the implied odds suggest that if you hit you will pick up more chips, assuming your read that he has an ace is good.

However, with a paired board, you could be drawing dead at this point. Not good to put your money in on a draw when you are already dead.

[Cyntaf]

Your 16% or 5-1 to hit, immediate pot odds 3.5-1 or 7/2 approx, however if you take into consideration the odds that your drawing dead to A rag, pkt 3 etc you will be far worse than a 16% dog with 1 card to come. Worst case scenario versus A-7s  or A-2s as per low limiters love to play, and rvr is a 7?
If a 7 or 2 hits, and even with implied odds, what will you do to an all in shove/ re> etc.

Factoring in his stack, he can really hurt you, so I"d say a no brainer. FOLD.

[Swinebag]

I dont really chase to the river in Sit and Goes and certainly not on the bubble. The chips are too precious. You have good odds to call (and possibly great implied odds) but may be drawing dead so I fold here. In fact I check/fold the turn.

[noble1]

as played all the above posts give good advice.........

flop bet - i like the lead but 3/4 pot bet may be better,you get the same info plus control the pot size better..

turn - don"t like the bet oop it is weak and tells villain to re-raise A2C[i would ] if you take a check call line , villain may well make a mistake and not bet [gr8 get draw free if the villain checks]  or he may not bet enough so you can call your draw cheap [it happens ]if VILLAIN bets out big its a easy fold.
And if you do see a river card and hit your bingo card because the board is paired with no good reads on villain i would be tempted to check call a reasonable bet from villain [he could have a boat or trips either would bet out river so rather than risk leading out and being put in a predicament if he re-raised you, c/c is good as you are OOP]

thats one line of playing it.... its not set in stone...check raise flop another to get initiative of the hand IF i thought villain was tight weak...

[Mayfair]

Thanks for the responses guys.

Here"s the full history.

I called and hit my bingo card and decided to bet the river and fold to any re-raise as i convinced myself he was playing ace rag and had now hit half of the rags.

Seat 4: PLAYER-A (1,982)
Seat 5: Mayfa1r (3,736)
Seat 6: PLAYER-B (3,282)
Mayfa1r posts the small blind of 60
PLAYER-B posts the big blind of 120
The button is in seat #4

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Mayfa1r [ ]
PLAYER-A folds
Mayfa1r calls 60
PLAYER-B checks

*** FLOP *** [  ad  ::]
Mayfa1r bets 120
PLAYER-B calls 120

*** TURN *** [  ad  ::] [ :as:]
Mayfa1r bets 120
PLAYER-B raises to 400
Mayfa1r has 15 seconds left to act
Mayfa1r calls 280

*** RIVER *** [  ad  ::  :as:] [ ]
Mayfa1r has 15 seconds left to act
Mayfa1r bets 720
PLAYER-B calls 720

*** SHOW DOWN ***
Mayfa1r shows [ ] a straight, Seven high
PLAYER-B shows [  ::] a straight, Five high
Mayfa1r wins the pot (2,720) with a straight, Seven high
The blinds are now 80/160

*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 2,720 | Rake 0
Board: [  ad  ::  :as:  ]
Seat 4: PLAYER-A (button) didn"t bet (folded)
Seat 5: Mayfa1r (small blind) showed [ ] and won (2,720) with a straight, Seven high
Seat 6: PLAYER-B (big blind) showed [  ::] and lost with a straight, Five high

[noble1]

hmmmmm