Author Topic: When to shove AK pre flop and when to fold  (Read 4978 times)

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LongshanksED

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When to shove AK pre flop and when to fold
« on: January 15, 2009, 22:24:11 PM »
middle of a $10 tourney right now

its amazing at the 50/100 level and stack averages are 2.5-3k when one player UTG raises to 500, middle position goes all in for 1.5k then the button calls the 1.5k with a stack of 3k, UTG  calls for his last 500

UTG shows QQ and middle position has 99, the buttons with AK and the queens hold up as does the 9"s against the AK

in the buttons position with AK im folding here (i wasnt involved in the hand)  with a good stack and no trouble why go looing for the fight - it seems too many players seem to see AK and its auto shove

or am i just too tight

Cyntaf

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Re: When to shove AK pre flop and when to fold
« Reply #1 on: January 15, 2009, 23:31:07 PM »
A-A  will beat 2 opponent 73% of time............All Aproximates.
A-A...............3..............64%.........
A-A...............4..............56%........
A-A...............5...............49%.......... Should you fold v 5 oppo"s?  No..............

Play 100 hands.  Win 49 times, say at $10 to win 49 x $50...= $2450

......................Lose 51 times............$10 x 51..................= $510

You come out a winner to the tune of $1940, over 100 hands, so even though you are a 49% slight dog, in this situation you have a +ev of $19.40 per hand for your $10 bet, almost 2-1.


Now AK v 1 opponent wins 65% of time, whereas against just 2 oppo"s your down to approx 48%, so against 3 or 4, it"s really not looking a good prospect. This is without considering any holdings of AA, KK or another also holding AK v the QQ and 99. Definate laydown for me here.

However last hand of $5 rebuy, i just (25 mins ago) went All in with A_K.
I didn"t want to rebuy, my stack was 2800, blinds 300/600 for the next 45 seconds anyway b4 the break.

utg +1 fold, next All in for 1500, i see this as steal/ similar thoughts to rebuying also? I re raise All in for 2800, 3 callers all with rubbish, except the BB who for the past half hour went All in and called all ins with absolute trash. He A-Q, I"m ahead chance of winning 9k+, nice stack for the freeze out section. Unfortunately A-q made a str8. Still, i felt right pushing here, the hands proved it, Also proved it"s vulnerability against multiple hands.

Hope this helps some.

Paul
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Cyntaf

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Re: When to shove AK pre flop and when to fold
« Reply #2 on: January 15, 2009, 23:34:22 PM »
P.S.

No your not too tight in my opinion, stage of tourney sensible play, i think :)
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eVolution

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Re: When to shove AK pre flop and when to fold
« Reply #3 on: January 30, 2009, 15:47:18 PM »
are you serious aces beat 5 other opponents almost 50% of the time?? that cant be right, i thought u were down to below 50% against any 3 random hands - deal urself some hands, youll be surprised to see how poorly aces fair against these hands - i have enough trouble trying to get aces to hold up against one opponent never mind 5! all the money in preflop you cold assume ur against pairs and big suited over cards, flushes straights sets 2 pair ALWAYS a possibility and with this many hands its likely someone will have that - bit of advice for you, dont play high fixed limit lol!

coprey

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Re: When to shove AK pre flop and when to fold
« Reply #4 on: January 30, 2009, 16:54:53 PM »
When you find yourself allin with AA against multiple opponents, what hands would they likely be.

The following scenario against 4 opponents wouldnt be unrealistic:

ac ad1 v  ah kh v 6d 7d v  9c 9h v  ts js

In this situation against 4 opponents AA is down to just over 40%

My calculator wouldn"t allow me to add a forth opponent. :-[

kinboshi

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Re: When to shove AK pre flop and when to fold
« Reply #5 on: January 30, 2009, 18:23:14 PM »




"Running hurts up to a point and then it doesn't get any worse."  Ann Trason

Cyntaf

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Re: When to shove AK pre flop and when to fold
« Reply #6 on: April 07, 2009, 22:46:37 PM »
The figures are just numbers for random hands, not accounting for their values. It was to illustrate the weakness of A-K in a multi way pot. Therefore agreeing Fold is good.
How high is high stakes limit btw?
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noble1

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Re: When to shove AK pre flop and when to fold
« Reply #7 on: April 08, 2009, 03:34:07 AM »
high stakes is at least a buy in of at least $10,000  ..... at least it is to qualify for the high stakes data base ....

Cyntaf

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Re: When to shove AK pre flop and when to fold
« Reply #8 on: April 08, 2009, 17:32:46 PM »
Oh i"ll stick with low then.......defined as, well..............way below 10k. Probably below 10 :)
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